Toronto Maple Leafs will approach the final day of the regular season with a clear understanding of their position in the 2026 NHL Draft lottery. Their recent performance slump has placed them among the top non-playoff teams, but not at the very bottom of the standings.
This means Toronto is in a group of clubs with a reasonable, though not overwhelming, chance at securing the first overall pick. Their highly discussed first-round selection, which is protected within the top five, remains a focal point for fans, management, and those analyzing draft odds.
NHL Lottery Field At The Top
The Vancouver Canucks have already secured the best odds for the first overall selection, concluding a season where they fully committed to a rebuild. Following them, Chicago is locked into the second-best odds after a year that guaranteed them a fourth consecutive top-four pick. The New York Rangers and Calgary Flames are next in line, with both teams’ draft positions likely to shift only slightly on the final day.
Toronto’s Exact Odds And Range
Entering the last day, Toronto holds the fifth-best odds for the first overall pick. This position reflects a season that fell significantly short of preseason expectations, but it also protects them from dropping too far in the draft order if they slide on lottery night. The Leafs can no longer move into the top three based on standings alone, nor can they fall into the middle of the pack before the lottery balls are drawn.
Current projections show Vancouver leading the lottery field with a 25.5 percent chance at the first overall pick. Chicago follows with 13.5 percent, then the Rangers at 11.5 percent, and the Flames at 9.5 percent. Toronto’s fifth-place standing grants them an 8.5 percent shot at the first overall selection, keeping them in contention even if they aren’t among the top three favorites.
These same models indicate that the odds flatten slightly further down the draft order. Toronto’s odds for the second overall pick are in the mid-single digits, only slightly behind Calgary and not dramatically lower than the teams above them. The league’s current lottery structure limits how far a team can move up or down, creating a narrow range of potential outcomes for teams in Toronto’s tier.
Most Likely Maple Leafs Outcomes
From a purely probabilistic standpoint, the most probable outcome for the Maple Leafs is a pick close to their current slot. While the lottery remains a significant factor, it doesn’t offer an unlimited climb. With the Canucks and Blackhawks holding the top two odds, and the Rangers and Flames positioned just ahead, Toronto’s most realistic range spans from the first overall pick in an ideal scenario to the latter half of the top ten if luck isn’t on their side.
A more significant factor for Toronto is the condition attached to their 2026 first-round pick. The Leafs traded this pick to Boston as part of the deal for Brandon Carlo, with top-five protection. If Toronto’s pick lands within the top five after the lottery, they retain it and instead owe Boston a future unprotected first-round pick. If it falls to sixth or lower, the Bruins receive this year’s selection, and the Leafs keep their 2027 first-round pick.
Impact of the Conditional Pick
This protection clause significantly influences how the final day and the lottery itself will be perceived in Toronto. As long as they maintain the fifth-best odds, the Leafs are in a position where a minor lottery win means retaining their asset, while a modest slide results in it being sent to another team. The difference between fourth, fifth, and sixth in the order might seem small in terms of raw percentages, but it’s substantial in terms of which franchise ultimately makes the draft selection.
The Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets, and Florida Panthers form the next tier of non-playoff teams. Seattle’s current standing places them just behind Toronto in terms of odds for the first overall pick, while Winnipeg and Florida are slightly further back. These clubs may see minor shifts in their standings on the final day, but none can leap into Toronto’s protected range without considerable lottery fortune.
What Changes on the Final Day
Conversely, the Leafs have very little room to improve their standings on the final night. Even a win or loss in their season finale will not significantly alter their pre-lottery position, given the gap to the teams above and below them. The real drama will unfold later, during the lottery draw, when the exact pick number is revealed and it becomes clear whether Toronto or Boston will be on the clock on draft night.
For Toronto fans, this creates a peculiar balance heading into the last day. The season did not deliver the playoff push that many anticipated, yet it has set the stage for a draft scenario where a top-five pick is highly possible. The Leafs may not possess the highest odds, but they will be at the center of one of the most closely watched conditional pick narratives in the league when the lottery balls are finally drawn.
