Josh Emmett is back in the featherweight division after a significant break, entering a landscape that has dramatically changed since his last fight.
Sixteen months have passed since Emmett`s impressive knockout victory over Bryce Mitchell, a win that solidified his position as a top contender. Since then, Ilia Topuria has risen to dominance, claiming the featherweight title with dominant wins and then expressing interest in moving to the lightweight division.
In short, despite being 40 years old, Emmett might be closer to a UFC title opportunity than one might think.
However, that is only true if Lerone Murphy doesn`t defeat him in the main event of UFC Vegas 105. Murphy, ranked No. 13 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, just behind No. 10 Emmett, has been a dark horse in the featherweight division. He boasts an undefeated record in the octagon and a growing list of quality victories. While he may lack mainstream appeal, another win should strongly position Murphy for a future title shot.
The rest of the UFC Vegas 105 card features a mix of seasoned veterans and up-and-coming fighters from Contender Series, offering a range of interesting matchups and potential discoveries.
After confidently predicting Brandon Moreno`s victory last week, it`s time to build a winning streak, and the prediction leans towards Lerone Murphy for tonight`s main event. Past prediction errors this year involved favoring experience or rematch history, failing to recognize shifts in momentum.
Murphy is a significant favorite against Josh Emmett, and for good reason. He possesses strong offense, solid defense, and is arguably fresher than Emmett. Being seven years younger, Murphy has several advantages.
Emmett speaks positively about his time off, intended for rejuvenation, which is understandable at his career stage. However, time away can be detrimental in this sport, and it`s questionable if Emmett`s rest can compensate for potential decline, even considering his knockout power.
Emmett`s power remains a crucial factor, especially as Murphy has shown vulnerability to strikes in the past. A single mistake could cost Murphy dearly against Emmett. However, the prediction is for Murphy to outwork Emmett on his feet over five rounds and secure a decision victory.
Pick: Murphy
The Brito vs. Sabatini matchup has upset potential.
Joanderson Brito, a dynamic striker with developing ground skills, seeks a win after a close split decision loss. He will face Pat Sabatini, who is likely to engage him, though perhaps not in Brito`s preferred striking realm.
Perhaps Brito shouldn`t want the fight to stay standing. Brito has previously shown a willingness to grapple, which could be risky against Sabatini. Sabatini is stronger on the ground and can control Brito, potentially leading to a decision win.
This is a stylistic battle that could end with a Brito knockout. However, the prediction favors Sabatini to take the fight to the ground early and often, limiting Brito`s options and securing a decision.
Pick: Sabatini
Cortavious Romious missed weight, raising concerns.
This weight miss is a factor in favoring Chang Ho Lee. While Lee`s Road to UFC finals victory wasn`t dominant, he displayed resilience that will serve him well in the bantamweight division. Winning unconventionally is a valuable skill.
Lee`s clinch fighting ability will be advantageous. Romious has potential but currently relies on straightforward striking and takedowns with limited setup. This should lead to clinch battles where Lee can wear Romious down. As the fight progresses, Lee`s persistence should turn the tide in his favor.
Lee may not be a bonus winner, but he is expected to outlast Romious.
Pick: Lee
Brad Tavares is rarely submitted. Gerald Meerschaert predominantly wins by submission, with 11 UFC wins in that manner. This seems like a straightforward prediction.
Meerschaert submitting Tavares would be a major upset and unlikely outcome. While Tavares has fought for a long time, and submissions are always possible, it`s improbable against Meerschaert. Meerschaert seeks his 30th submission victory.
It`s unlikely Meerschaert will effectively take Tavares down, even with recent vulnerabilities in Tavares` wrestling defense. This is anticipated to be a typical middleweight bout: methodical, technical striking with limited impact.
Tavares excels in these types of fights.
Pick: Tavares
Ode Osbourne is a skilled veteran, capable of challenging anyone in the division, but perhaps lacks a defining quality to stand out. Luis Gurule, a recent Contender Series signee, is expected to win despite a potentially tough fight.
Gurule is confident and agile, favoring counter-striking. He`s also willing to engage in close-quarters combat, testing Osbourne`s reaction to pressure.
Gurule employs unorthodox movements, potentially disrupting Osbourne`s rhythm. It will be interesting to see how Osbourne adapts if he can`t find early openings.
Gurule shows promise as a flyweight with top 20 potential, though he could also follow a similar career path to Osbourne. Gurule is favored to win by decision in his UFC debut.
Pick: Gurule
This is a suitable matchup for Torrez Finney after earning a UFC contract through Contender Series appearances. However, analysis reveals weaknesses Robert Valentin can exploit.
The height difference is significant. Finney, at 6-foot-2, has a six-inch height advantage over Torrez, a challenge Torrez has faced before. He`s vulnerable to strikes while closing the distance.
Torrez typically secures takedowns and dominates from top position. His submission defense is a concern. Valentin is skilled in submissions and could pose a threat if Torrez takes ground risks, which is possible given Torrez`s desire to entertain.
Despite potential for an upset, Finney`s wrestling and strength are likely too much for Valentin currently. However, taller middleweights may pose a future challenge.
Pick: Finney
Preliminaries Results
- Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita
- Rhys McKee def. Daniel Frunza
- Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes
- Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao
- Martin Buday def. Uran Satybaldiev
- Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos
