Ilia Topuria is pursuing significant history at International Fight Week. This Saturday at UFC 317, the featherweight champion moves up to the lightweight division to challenge former champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant title in the main event. A victory would make Topuria only the tenth fighter in UFC history to capture belts in two weight classes, joining an elite group that includes names like Alex Pereira, Amanda Nunes, and Randy Couture.
Simultaneously, Charles Oliveira aims to etch his own name in the record books by becoming the first fighter ever to regain the UFC lightweight championship. This main event is a true superfight with immense stakes for both competitors. Let`s break down the potential strategies each fighter can employ to secure a historic win this weekend.
Despite already being recognized as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters and the 2024 Fighter of the Year, it feels appropriate to label Ilia Topuria the most promising talent in mixed martial arts. This sentiment arises from his significant achievements at the young age of 28. He is only just entering what are typically considered a fighter`s prime years, suggesting that the already incredible level he has displayed is likely the floor for his future performance. The lightweight division should be on notice.
Topuria`s approach is primarily built around his sharp boxing and relentless forward pressure. Although he possesses strong grappling credentials, we have rarely seen this aspect highlighted in his recent fights. Instead, he focuses on backing opponents up and landing powerful strikes. He carries significant knockout power, which is expected to translate well to the 155-pound division, complemented by devastating body shots. This striking game is anchored by excellent footwork and fundamentally sound defense.
These striking attributes are precisely what Topuria needs against Charles Oliveira. Oliveira has long been known for being hittable in striking exchanges, often relying on his dangerous submission game from the bottom to recover after being hurt. While his guard remains a threat, Oliveira has shown vulnerability when opponents target his body. If Topuria can implement his signature pressure game – consistently marching Oliveira down and attacking the body before shifting to the head – it presents a highly favorable matchup for the featherweight king.
Oliveira is undoubtedly tough and durable, so Topuria might not finish him with the first or second major connection. However, maintaining consistent, high-volume pressure should eventually wear down and overwhelm the former lightweight champion.
As suggested, this is not an easy night for Charles Oliveira. In fact, outside of a matchup with Islam Makhachev, it might be one of the most challenging stylistic pairings for him at 155 pounds. But a difficult fight is not the same as an unwinnable one.
Oliveira possesses several advantages heading into Saturday, chief among them being his size. While “do Bronx” did compete at featherweight early in his career, he has been a lightweight for many years and could no longer comfortably make 145 pounds. He is a naturally large lightweight. The one time Topuria competed at 155 pounds previously, he appeared to have some difficulty dealing with Jai Herbert`s size and reach. With all due respect to Herbert, Charles Oliveira represents a significantly higher level of competition.
As the physically larger fighter, Oliveira would be wise to utilize this advantage, not necessarily at distance, but in the clinch. Oliveira is deceptively skilled in clinch fighting, and his natural size edge should provide ample opportunities to tie Topuria up and score points or look for takedowns. We have not seen Topuria tested extensively in clinch exchanges, so Oliveira should actively seek to engage in this area early and often.
Another key tool in Oliveira`s arsenal is his potent kicking game. Topuria has not frequently faced opponents who rely heavily on kicks, yet even those who do have found success employing leg and body kicks against him. Both Alexander Volkanovski and Josh Emmett landed body kicks often in their fights with Ilia. Oliveira, arguably a superior kicker to both, should look to replicate this strategy. Kicks not only score effectively but also force Topuria to potentially lower his hands to defend, creating openings upstairs.
Perhaps even more critical than size or kicks is the battle for control of the center and footwork. While Oliveira may have slightly lost a step, he absolutely cannot afford to retreat in this fight. Topuria attacking and moving forward is a formidable force. Oliveira must resolve from the moment the opening bell rings to stand his ground and not concede space, because consistently moving backward against Topuria is a recipe for defeat.
One question that lingers about this matchup, which might ultimately prove irrelevant, is the impact of age on Oliveira. If he were a few years younger, one might be more inclined to favor his chances of pulling off the upset. The stylistic matchup is tough, yes, but a younger Oliveira could potentially leverage his advantages more effectively. As it stands now, Oliveira appears to be on the downside of his career, and the potential speed differential with a prime Topuria could be significant. While Oliveira is known for his resilience, Topuria will likely need to drop him multiple times to secure the finish, but he is certainly capable of doing so.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira by TKO (Punches) — 2:21, Round 2
