Sean O`Malley is set to have his opportunity for redemption.
O`Malley will challenge bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316 this Saturday in Newark, NJ. This fight is a rematch of their previous encounter, where Dvalishvili won the title by outworking O`Malley over 25 minutes. In addition, the co-main event features a highly anticipated women`s bantamweight title bout between Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison, with a potential fight against Amanda Nunes awaiting the winner.
It`s a big fight weekend. With this in mind, MMA Fighting`s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew convened to discuss the main talking points for UFC 316.
Heck: Gentlemen, you know I speak my mind, and when this fight was announced, my interest level was about a 2.5 out of 10. But now, with just a week left, I`m up to at least an 8, and it could climb higher.
I find the storylines leading up to this fight compelling – many of which my friend AK will point out – but the stakes are genuinely significant here. Does a win cement Dvalishvili`s status as the greatest bantamweight ever? Some already place him there, so if he loses, does that conversation change?
And for O`Malley, if he suffers another loss, what does that mean for his career? Does O`Malley, as Chael Sonnen suggested, become the Rich Franklin of the bantamweight division and move up to featherweight? Or does “Sugar” follow the path of Max Holloway, defeating all upcoming contenders until he undeniably earns another title shot? All these possibilities truly fascinate me.
Lee: I`m going with a 7/10, and does that feel generous? That should really be the baseline interest for a UFC title fight, right?
Like most people, my initial reaction after Dvalishvili and O’Malley’s first fight was something along the lines of, “Okay, glad that`s over. We don`t need to see that again anytime soon.” So I wasn`t exactly thrilled when O`Malley was allowed to wait for an immediate rematch. But honestly, apart from wanting to see Umar Nurmagomedov challenge Dvalishvili again, there weren`t any other contenders I was desperate to see Merab fight next. Cory Sandhagen? Timing didn`t align. Petr Yan? We`ve already witnessed that. Aiemann Zahabi or Mario Bautista? Please, no. Patchy Mix? His time is coming.
So I`ve managed to talk myself into Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2, fully buying into every possible reason to run this one back:
- The first fight was a clear victory for Merab, but not a completely dominant performance. O’Malley landed some meaningful shots and had his moments. You could argue Dvalishvili was winning rounds without inflicting significant damage until the final one.
- O’Malley is a significant star. He was likely to get a title opportunity again soon anyway.
- The bantamweight division is currently lacking clear, undeniable top contenders. Other highly-ranked fighters recently lost or aren`t quite ready.
- Merab`s style, while incredibly effective, isn`t always the most thrilling to watch. Adding a personality like O`Malley opposite him naturally draws more attention.
All good points. I`m convinced. 7/10.
Meshew: I must be honest: I am genuinely shocked you guys rated it so highly. This is one of the few times I recall a fight announcement being met with such widespread negative reaction from the fanbase. I`m giving this a 2 out of 10, and even that feels generous.
Let’s start with the negatives: this is one of the worst-booked title fights in recent memory. Now, I can`t say it’s the *absolute* worst because the UFC keeps setting a lower bar (*cough* Yair Rodriguez possibly getting another shot at Alexander Volkanovski instead of Movsar Evloev *cough*), but it`s quite egregious. O’Malley had only one successful title defense before losing the belt to Merab, and that was the completely undeserved rematch against Chito Vera. Even before winning the title, a common criticism of O`Malley was his lack of significant wins in the division. And now, after clearly losing a decision to Merab, he gets an immediate rematch nine months later? It`s absurd.
Then, of course, there’s the nature of the fight itself. Be truthful, how many of you have gone back and rewatched that first fight? The number must be quite small because it was not an enjoyable viewing experience. That was only nine months ago, and while you can always hope things will be different, the most likely outcome is a repetition of what already bored us immensely.
And that brings me to my biggest issue with the fight: Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili is unquestionably the best bantamweight on the planet and is making a strong case for being the greatest ever, but I refuse to pretend he`s interesting. He is not. The man is an exceptional fighter who has found a way to use his unique skills to achieve a dominant title reign, and I will never take that away from him. However, I have no interest in watching him compete, just as James Harden becoming a player primarily focused on three-pointers and free throws made me dislike watching basketball. Exploiting the system makes you smart and great, but it doesn`t necessarily make you entertaining, at least not for me. If I wanted to watch a test of cardiovascular endurance, I`d watch CrossFit. Until Merab actually tries to hurt an opponent instead of just wearing them out, I will never be excited for one of his title fights.
Lee: I`m not sure I follow the question; is there something wrong with the division?
*chuckle*
Okay, even looking through the most optimistic glasses, I can admit that the women’s 135-pound roster *might* not be the most compelling right now. Can a masterful performance from Kayla Harrison change that? It won’t happen overnight, but having a compelling, dominant champion at the top is always a positive thing.
Firstly, let`s not discount Julianna Peña giving Harrison a difficult fight and potentially earning a rematch to continue their rivalry. Say what you will about “The Venezuelan Vixen,” but she is as relentlessly determined outside the cage as she is inside, and if anyone is willing to persevere long enough for a chance to become a three-time UFC champion, it’s her.
Then there’s the Amanda Nunes factor. She`s not coming back to fight Peña, but a frequently discussed matchup with Harrison, her former training partner? That matchup is a legitimate pay-per-view headliner.
Add in the possibility of Valentina Shevchenko defeating Zhang Weili in a superfight and then moving up for another superfight opportunity against Harrison, and my goodness, we might actually generate some enthusiasm around this division again.
Meshew: No. This division is dead; it just hasn’t realized it yet.
You know how in movies a character is dying and another starts doing CPR and chest compressions, keeping the heart beating but refusing to accept the truth? That’s the women’s bantamweight division right now. Sure, maybe Kayla wins, and then there`s the Nunes fight, and that keeps the heart beating for a little while, but to what end?
There are no reinforcements coming to the women’s bantamweight division. The UFC simply hasn`t done the necessary work to develop what was once its premier women’s weight class (coincidentally, light heavyweight has a similar issue). There are barely any fighters on the roster; they compete rarely, and no new talent has emerged. Just look at the UFC rankings.
Chelsea Chandler is ranked, and she’s won only *one* fight at bantamweight in her entire career – a win in Invicta in 2019! Miesha Tate is still ranked, for crying out loud! The only relatively new fighter who could have offered something was Macy Chiasson, and she just lost arguably the worst fight of the year to Ketlen Vieira.
I don’t say this to be unkind, but with a clear understanding of the situation: if Kayla Harrison wins on Saturday, book her against Nunes for the *final* women’s bantamweight title fight. Promote it heavily as the retirement of the belt, and then sunset the division. Then, maybe in a few years, they can bring it back, similar to how they revived the lightweight division years ago.
Heck: Umm… kind of? And I say that because any short-term salvation would be a combined effort.
Amanda Nunes is hinting at a comeback, and in my opinion, the only way that happens is if Kayla Harrison wins the belt, and I think the word “if” is very important here.
I’ve seen predictions everywhere that Pena is about to be completely overwhelmed by Harrison, and that could certainly happen. But call me crazy, I’m genuinely looking forward to this fight because I believe Pena has a better chance than people think. Harrison hasn’t been in many tough, prolonged MMA battles, and when she has, she lost to Larissa Pacheco and won a competitive decision against Ketlen Vieira. The longer Harrison allows Pena to stay in the fight, the more “The Venezuelan Vixen” can close the gap. However, if Harrison quickly defeats Pena, the appetite for a Harrison vs. Nunes fight would be quite significant.
But what happens next? That’s a major question, and a HUGE problem for this division. Women’s 135 is in a difficult state right now, largely because there are simply so few fighters in the weight class.
Meshew: Oh wow, I just looked at the rest of this card and, well, *yeesh*. Either the UFC has immense confidence in Sean O’Malley’s (and I guess Kayla Harrison’s) ability to draw viewers, or they simply gave up on building this card. Typically, a pay-per-view either has 1-2 great fights at the top followed by average bouts, or it’s a collection of consistently good B+ fights. UFC 316 seems to have split the difference with two average title fights and a collection of bouts that make you wonder “Do I look like I care?”. A bold strategy, indeed.
I’m going to pass on discussing one specific fighter versus Mix because that name is off-limits to me. It makes it difficult to talk about, even though Patchy Mix is a much-needed breath of fresh air. After that, the fight that looks most significant on paper is Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (ranked heavyweights!), but no. Just no.
Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum *could* be fun – or Pyfer might mess up his weight cut, get sick, and then blame the issue on anyone other than himself, perhaps citing xenophobia. So that’s out. Thus, I guess that leaves Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland as the only real choice (but shout out to Joshua Van, who is always exciting to watch).
Luque is 33 but fights like he`s 106, but he`s still a dangerous fighter and almost always entertaining. Holland has somewhat hindered his career by unsuccessfully fighting at middleweight, where he isn`t very effective. However, this fight is back at 170 pounds, where he is quite capable, so I anticipate a good fight. Holland likely wins, but it should be entertaining while it lasts and, based on the lineup, might be the last enjoyable moment on Saturday night.
Heck: Even though there’s buzz among hardcore fans, the more casual audience needs to become invested in Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix. I could write a thousand words about how much I love this fight and how intrigued I am by it. But for those who aren`t familiar with Mix, he was the final Bellator bantamweight champion and has been largely inactive since PFL absorbed Bellator for… well, specific reasons. Fortunately, PFL made the right decision and allowed Mix to move where he can actually fight and have the chance to prove he`s the best 135-pound fighter in the world.
I admit, Mix’s most recent performance against Magomed Magomedov gave me a little reason for concern. Perhaps Mix was feeling less motivated in an organization he wanted to leave, or maybe Magomedov is significantly better than people thought. But this is perfect matchmaking. Why? Because we’ll know Mix’s potential ceiling in the UFC within 15 minutes or less, in my opinion.
If Mix completely dominates Bautista, especially if he gets a finish, he will emerge from the event looking like a true superstar, potentially even earning a title shot next. If he loses to Bautista, he’ll likely be a consistent top-10 fighter globally but won`t compete for a UFC title. Outside of the two title fights, no fighter has more at stake than Mix.
Lee: I`m going for a very deep cut pick here and highlighting Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro.
Admittedly, this is more of an endorsement for Murzakanov than an prediction of an exciting fight, considering Murzakanov is one of the biggest favorites on the card besides Kayla Harrison. But I`ve been impressed with what he’s shown so far, and I doubt he`s far from a title shot in the relatively shallow light heavyweight division.
At 36, Murzakanov doesn`t have time to waste, and he`ll be looking to make a statement with the hope of improving his UFC record to 5-0 and building a strong case for a title opportunity. While it`s buried on the preliminary card, Murzakanov vs. Ribeiro could serve as a showcase fight for a fighter who might contend for a title in 2026.
