UFC 315 concluded with a significant change in the welterweight division: a new champion emerged.
Jack Della Maddalena secured the most important victory of his career on Saturday, delivering a dominant performance that earned him a unanimous decision win against Belal Muhammad, thereby claiming the welterweight championship.
Following this victory, questions arise about JDM`s future path and the potential duration of his reign. We also need to examine the flyweight landscape after Valentina Shevchenko`s commanding performance against Manon Fiorot, and consider whether Jose Aldo has truly retired. Let`s explore these topics.
Considering Jack Della Maddalena`s championship run, what are the expectations?
His initial defense will likely be a major indicator, and predicting the outcome of that specific bout is uncertain.
Islam Makhachev is expected to be JDM`s first challenger, and the potential winner of that contest is unclear. Initially, Makhachev seems favored due to his status as arguably the top fighter globally. Furthermore, given Makhachev`s overall skill advantage over Muhammad, and Muhammad`s competitive fight with JDM, Makhachev might theoretically perform better. However, JDM continues to evolve, demonstrated significantly improved takedown defense against Muhammad, and possesses skills that could challenge Makhachev. Therefore, a Makhachev victory is far from guaranteed.
JDM`s potential challenge lies in the depth of the welterweight division; even a win against Makhachev offers no easy path forward. The 170-pound weight class is packed with formidable emerging contenders. Della Maddalena could potentially face elite opponents like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Sean Brady, or Joaquin Buckley, with other promising fighters such as Michael Morales and Carlos Prates also progressing. The welterweight title scene is currently exceptionally competitive, a true “shark tank,” making it highly unlikely for any single champion to defeat every top contender sequentially.
Could you analyze the divisional impacts of Jack Della Maddalena`s victory at both 170 and 155 pounds? What are the next steps for contenders like Shavkat, Brady, Belal, and Buckley while Islam challenges for the title? Also, it appears the lightweight belt (155 lbs) may not be contested again until potentially 2026.
Contrary to being a “mess,” the situation appears quite clearly defined now, although perhaps not ideally for all involved parties.
Islam is scheduled to challenge JDM for the welterweight championship later this year, potentially during the UFC`s return to Australia or in Abu Dhabi. In the lightweight division, Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria will compete for the vacant belt at UFC 317. Arman Tsarukyan is likely to face Justin Gaethje in a matchup that could determine the next challenger for the lightweight title.
Regarding the welterweight picture, Ian Machado Garry and Sean Brady seem poised for a matchup. The winner of the fight between Joaquin Buckley and Kamaru Usman is expected to face Belal Muhammad next. Shavkat Rakhmonov`s immediate future is less certain, but a plausible scenario sees him attending the Islam vs. JDM fight and then challenging the winner early the following year.
An alternative, more unpredictable outcome could arise if the UFC opts for a chaotic scenario. Should Topuria defeat Oliveira and Makhachev overcome Della Maddalena, the demand for a potential clash between Makhachev and Topuria would undoubtedly intensify. Furthermore, a high-profile bout like Makhachev vs. Topuria for the welterweight title in the coming year could serve as a major event, particularly if the UFC secures a new broadcast deal. While this possibility is not confirmed, it remains a potential development. Such a matchup would be significantly disruptive to other contenders, but it`s likely that many fans would prioritize the spectacle.
What is Alexa Grasso`s trajectory now? Was her championship win potentially a fluke? Additionally, is Taila Santos a genuine threat to defeat Shevchenko? Does she represent the future of the 125-pound division?
Saturday proved to be a difficult night for some. Alexa Grasso currently faces uncertainty in her career, and her championship seems likely to be remembered as an exception rather than the start of a long reign. This represents a challenging development for Grasso.
Firstly, Grasso`s previous victory against Shevchenko should not be considered a fluke, though it now appears it wasn`t the most probable result based on their overall skills. If they were to compete multiple times, Shevchenko would likely win the majority of bouts. However, Grasso was fully prepared and executed her strategy effectively on the crucial night, which is noteworthy.
This situation also underscores the recurring observation that consistently defending a championship in MMA is incredibly challenging. Each title defense presents the champion with an opponent who has dedicated their career to this specific opportunity. A single misstep or error can result in losing everything.
Regarding Grasso`s future options, her choices appear limited. It`s improbable that she could successfully compete at strawweight (115 lbs), and she would likely be too small for bantamweight (135 lbs), leaving her primarily in the flyweight division. However, with several rising talents in the division, she might unfortunately serve as a benchmark or stepping stone for aspiring contenders.
Concerning Taila Santos, she indeed appears to be a significant prospect for the flyweight division`s future. Her performance on Saturday was impressive. While predicting a win against Shevchenko in their next potential encounter might be premature, it is certainly within the realm of possibility. It seems likely that Santos and Erin Blanchfield could engage in multiple title fights in the years ahead.
However, the immediate future for Shevchenko most likely involves a bout against Zhang Weili. This pairing features two of the most accomplished female fighters in the sport`s history and is a fight that should logically happen next.
Is Jose Aldo`s recent statement about retirement genuine?
I do not believe so.
Following a controversial decision loss to Aiemann Zahabi on Saturday, Jose Aldo indicated it was likely his final appearance in the octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer and featherweight legend later reiterated this sentiment by stating it “may have been my last time inside the octagon.” The use of “may” suggests a degree of uncertainty, implying the decision is not fully committed.
While this is speculative, Aldo`s comments might stem from frustration experienced this past week. A recurring criticism is the UFC`s handling of the latter part of his career. While a fight against Jonathan Martinez in Rio had some logic, scheduling him against lesser-known opponents like Mario Bautista and Zahabi seemed ill-advised. Facing opponents without significant name recognition undoubtedly makes it harder to maintain focus and motivation. Aldo`s honest admission that his weight cut issues were mental suggests a struggle to fully engage for a seemingly less important bout. These matchups weren`t against legendary figures or significant legacy opponents, but rather relative unknowns. It`s difficult to imagine him lacking motivation for a high-profile, legacy-defining fight. Furthermore, his recent two losses were controversial decisions, adding to the potential frustration.
It`s possible that after a period of reflection, Aldo will conclude that he isn`t finished with fighting entirely, but rather with participating in seemingly insignificant bouts. If the UFC were to propose a compelling, high-profile matchup, such as facing Patricio Pitbull in Rio later this year, Aldo might reconsider his retirement stance.
At least, that is the hope.
