Alexander Volkanovski is in a tough spot.
This Saturday marks Volkanovski`s return to the Octagon since losing his featherweight title to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298. He`s facing Diego Lopes in the main event of UFC 314. Already a Hall of Famer, a victory would be another great achievement in his career, but a defeat could signal the end of his time at the top.
What`s at risk for Volkanovski and Lopes this Saturday? And what are the key storylines for UFC 314? MMA experts Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew share their insights on this major pay-per-view event.
Lee: Yes, it`s crucial.
The “Old Man Volk” persona is amusing, but it reflects the reality of fight sports. At 36, Alexander Volkanovski isn`t old in life, but he has a lot of fight experience. Thirteen years as a pro and thirty fights, many against top-tier opponents, take a toll.
If Volkanovski doesn`t regain the UFC title, what`s next? Moving to 155 pounds without title aspirations? We`ve seen his potential there, and veteran matchups could be interesting, but without chasing a championship, what`s his motivation?
It`s hard to imagine Volkanovski making another run at the 145-pound title. With Topuria absent and Diego Lopes being a beatable opponent, this is a prime opportunity that might not come again.
Retirement isn`t the end of the world, and Volkanovski has already accomplished so much. It would be understandable if he decided to retire if he loses at UFC 314.
Meshew: While you should never definitively say never, this fight is make or break for Volkanovski, especially in terms of the title picture.
Volkanovski is arguably a top 10 all-time fighter. But time affects everyone, and it seems to be catching up to Volkanovski. He’s lost three of his last four fights, the last two by knockout. While those losses can be explained away by factors like short notice, weight class changes, and facing top fighters, these excuses lose weight over time. If Lopes defeats Volkanovski decisively, it will be clear he`s past his prime. MMA history shows that fighters past their peak rarely return to the top, even if they remain active.
That`s acceptable. MMA isn`t solely about title fights. Sometimes it`s about exciting matchups against great fighters for the love of competition. A loss might remove Volkanovski from title contention, but he could still have exciting fights with fighters like Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, or Dustin Poirier. If Volkanovski is only interested in title belts, then this fight is critical. But it doesn`t have to be the end of his career if he still wants to compete.
If Volkanovski wins against Lopes, many may not see him as the true champion since Topuria holds the belt, but it`s still a significant achievement and adds to his legacy as one of the best ever.
Martin: In a sport where Dustin Poirier can lose by knockout, win against a lesser-known fighter, and then get a title shot, is anyone ever truly out of the title picture in the UFC?
However, Volkanovski seems to be in a critical position due to two recent knockout losses and being 36 years old, soon turning 37. Lighter weight classes are often unforgiving to older fighters, so this might be Volkanovski’s last chance to reclaim a championship and make another run in the featherweight division.
His legacy is secure as one of the greatest featherweights, but losing to Makhachev, Topuria, and potentially Lopes in succession isn`t how he wants his career peak to end. Conversely, Volkanovski winning and becoming a two-time champion at his age would strengthen his GOAT status alongside Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.
Martin: Relevancy is at stake, but differently for both Chandler and Pimblett.
It`s easy to forget Chandler has only two UFC wins, one against an aging Tony Ferguson. His knockout debut against Dan Hooker was impressive, but Chandler can`t just be known for exciting losses. His losses are against top fighters, but Pimblett is at best a fringe top 15 fighter. Chandler can`t afford another loss, which would drop his UFC record to 2-5 and hurt his standing at 155 pounds.
Pimblett has a chance to prove he`s a top lightweight. His potential is still debated. He defeated King Green, but Green has been inconsistent recently, going 1-3 in his last four fights. If Pimblett can defeat Chandler, regardless of Chandler`s record, it would be very impressive and establish him as a serious lightweight contender.
Lee: The loser of the Chandler vs. Pimblett fight will likely never contend for a UFC title.
Depending on your view of Chandler and Pimblett, this might be obvious or insulting. Pimblett is likely underrated; his large personality might lead to unfair criticism of his skills. He`s a strong grappler, hits hard, and is tough to finish.
This also describes Chandler, although he`s a more respected striker but with a questionable chin. Both have faced high expectations (often self-created), placing them in a strange light with MMA fans. Chandler seems like a big-name fighter, but his results are mixed, and he`s not as famous as some rivals (like McGregor).
Chandler vs. Pimblett is about survival, relevance, and keeping slim title hopes alive.
Meshew: Initially, I thought the fight`s stake was a title shot, but it`s actually about the Ilia Topuria sweepstakes.
The lightweight title picture is unclear. Makhachev awaits a potential upset by Jack Della Maddalena over Belal Muhammad, otherwise there`s no clear next contender. Arman Tsarukyan recently lost his chance, and other contenders aren`t obvious. Topuria is popular for a title shot but hasn`t earned it, and Makhachev essentially told him to “beat someone first.” Here`s an opportunity.
The Paddy Pimblett matchup is obvious. They have a rivalry, Pimblett is becoming a contender, it makes sense. For Michael Chandler, the UFC owes him something after the Conor McGregor situation, so a No. 1 contender fight with Topuria feels like a good move. For Topuria, it`s a winnable fight against a big name to reach his goal. If I were Chandler and won, I`d target Topuria, not McGregor, and welcome him to lightweight.
Meshew: I`m not excited about the Silva fight because the UFC is promoting someone with problematic views. But Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes is exciting!
Reyes is on a two-fight win streak after a four-fight losing streak and almost being cut from the UFC. Krylov has won three in a row but has been inactive for two years. This is a matchup of streaking top 10 light heavyweights!
This fight should be fun. Reyes seems to be regaining his form, and Krylov is always in exciting fights. They will likely have a fast-paced and entertaining fight.
Martin: Many will say Patricio Pitbull`s UFC debut is the most interesting, but Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell is the fight I`m most excited for.
Silva is an action fighter with highlight finishes. Mitchell is known for controversial beliefs.
If Silva wins impressively, his popularity will skyrocket. If Mitchell wins, his post-fight interview could be very memorable. The stakes are high for both.
Lee: While Pitbull is an obvious choice, I`m going with Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper.
I previously questioned if Hooper, at 23, should return to regional circuits after a mixed UFC record. Now, he`s on a four-win streak, proving himself and facing UFC veteran Jim Miller.
This matchup is highly anticipated. Hooper`s potential and Miller`s career stage are uncertain. It could be a passing of the torch or just another fight in long careers. Any outcome is possible.
It will be a fun and interesting fight. Whether standing or on the ground, expect exciting exchanges. Miller will face the fact that Hooper is young enough to be his son.
MMA always finds ways to surprise.
