While star injuries have left the NBA`s Eastern Conference race appearing wide open heading into the 2025-26 season, the Western Conference presents a starkly different picture. There, a pack of hopeful contenders finds themselves chasing the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder concluded last season by winning the West by a remarkable 16 games and possess a young, sustainable roster seemingly built for sustained success and a potential repeat.
This reality prompts several key questions: Which Western rivals have positioned themselves best to challenge Oklahoma City`s dominance? Which teams relying on seasoned veterans can realistically maintain the necessary performance level for another deep playoff push? And which younger squads might make a significant leap up the standings?
To gain clarity on the initial state of the Western Conference after a flurry of free agency moves, we have categorized all 15 teams into five distinct tiers. This analysis focuses purely on the West; the Eastern Conference landscape will be explored separately. Let`s dive into the tiers, beginning with the team that currently stands alone at the summit.
Tier 1: The Unquestioned Frontrunner
Oklahoma City Thunder
Outside of integrating 2024 first-round pick Nikola Topic, the defending champions made no significant additions via trade or free agency. This strategic inactivity reflects their position: why alter a championship-winning formula? The Thunder already boasted the league`s deepest rotation. Furthermore, they are expected to improve naturally in 2025-26, given their roster`s youth – only Alex Caruso (31) and Kenrich Williams (30) are over the age of 27. Critically, Chet Holmgren played only 32 games last season due to injury, suggesting significant untapped potential remains.
Becoming the first team to repeat as champions since the Durant-led Warriors would snap a lengthy drought without consecutive winners. Achieving this after a 68-win season and the best point differential in NBA history is not just possible, but realistically within reach. The Thunder stand in a class by themselves.
Tier 2: Contenders Ready to Challenge
Houston Rockets
The Rockets arguably flattered to deceive in 2024-25. They secured the No. 2 seed in the West through sheer regular-season effort but lacked the necessary star power to compete effectively in the postseason, resulting in a first-round exit against Golden State. However, the landscape has shifted significantly. By trading for Kevin Durant and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, while young talents like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard are poised for expanded roles, Houston has assembled a complete team with the depth and star power previously missing. While perhaps not possessing the absolute top-end talent of Oklahoma City, they also lack any glaring weaknesses. Expect the Rockets to challenge for a top seed again, appearing far more equipped for playoff success this time around. The paper tiger has become quite real.
Denver Nuggets
The fundamental structure of the Nuggets remains consistent – Nikola Jokic leads, supported by Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Yet, the offseason brought notable changes: a new head coach, a revamped front office, and a significantly improved bench unit with additions like Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and potentially Jonas Valanciunas. Cameron Johnson steps into Michael Porter Jr.`s starting spot as the primary shooter. The Nuggets came close to upsetting the Thunder in the second round last season, only thwarted by an unexpected barrage of three-pointers from an opponent. They`ve since reloaded with the clear intention of a rematch next season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards` continued development is paramount to Minnesota`s hopes of a third consecutive Western Conference Finals appearance, and ideally, advancing further this time. However, the effectiveness of the backcourt beyond Edwards is a significant variable. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone, the rotation includes the veteran Mike Conley (turning 38 before the season), the inconsistent Donte DiVincenzo, and rising sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr., whose combined scoring was minimal as rookies. There`s definite potential here, but also considerable risk. The Timberwolves aimed to maintain stability by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid, but it`s difficult to argue they demonstrably improved their roster. Meanwhile, other teams in this tier made seemingly unimpeachable upgrades, possibly surpassing Minnesota in the competitive hierarchy.
Tier 3: The Experienced Core (The “Old Guard”)
LA Clippers
One could argue the Clippers deserve a higher ranking. Following Kawhi Leonard`s return on January 4th last season, they posted the West`s second-best net rating (+7.2). They even outscored Denver in their seven-game first-round loss, but narrow defeats and a poor Game 7 performance doomed their “sleeper contender” aspirations. The good news? Brook Lopez is a valuable addition addressing the backup center need, and most key players from last season return (Norman Powell was traded for John Collins). The challenge? Leonard, James Harden, Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn, and Bogdan Bogdanovic are all in their 30s. It`s a valid question whether their prime window has passed.
Los Angeles Lakers
Any roster featuring Luka Doncic and LeBron James automatically commands attention as a potential contender. The critical uncertainty lies in whether the supporting cast is sufficiently strong. Can lineups featuring Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves hold up defensively? Will new starting center Deandre Ayton, recently bought out, demonstrate renewed intensity and reverse his recent decline? Is there enough shooting proficiency across the roster? Expect the inherent drama surrounding the Lakers to persist until these fundamental questions receive definitive, positive answers.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have maintained a notable degree of inactivity this offseason, seemingly in a holding pattern pending Al Horford`s free agency decision and the resolution of Jonathan Kuminga`s restricted free agency. Consequently, they remain in a position similar to how they finished last season: a very good team (especially with Jimmy Butler III integrated) but not a dominant force. Their potential to climb a tier hinges entirely on future offseason developments – recall that Stephen Curry`s injury in Game 1 of the second round arguably prevented a deeper playoff run last season. As of now, their actions haven`t warranted improved placement.
Dallas Mavericks
While 18-year-old #1 overall pick Cooper Flagg represents a clear and exciting reason for optimism and doesn`t fit the “old guard” label, the team`s core composition does. A roster led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (contingent on his return from a torn ACL), with veterans Klay Thompson and D`Angelo Russell projected to start in the backcourt, clearly belongs in this experienced tier. The larger strategic question for Dallas revolves around playmaking: Can Flagg handle point forward duties as a rookie? Will the streaky Russell find consistency? Most importantly, will Irving return at full strength immediately, or require time to regain form?
Tier 4: Ascending Teams (Young and Hungry)
Memphis Grizzlies
Trading Desmond Bane appears to have been more of a targeted roster adjustment than the start of a comprehensive rebuild. Memphis subsequently signed Ty Jerome, traded up to draft Cedric Coward (a potential Bane replacement), and extended Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. The roster retains significant depth and talent. However, without Bane, the primary talent concentration lies at point guard and center. For the Grizzlies to avoid taking a step backward, they require either Coward to excel immediately as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to make a substantial second-year leap, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bounce back from a statistically down season in Orlando.
San Antonio Spurs
De`Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the court for a mere five games last season, a brief window between Fox`s trade arrival and Wembanyama`s season-ending deep vein thrombosis diagnosis. Add #2 overall pick Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle to the mix, and it becomes evident the Spurs are still very much in a phase of organizational self-discovery regarding player fit and identity. It is highly likely this season will serve as a transitional year as they determine how their collection of young talent complements Wembanyama. Notably, despite landing the #2 pick, San Antonio avoided aggressive win-now moves like pursuing Kevin Durant via trade. However, precisely because of Wembanyama`s extraordinary potential (already favored for Defensive Player of the Year and likely All-NBA), they possess perhaps the highest ceiling for a rapid ascent in 2025-26.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season, the Trail Blazers exhibited a tale of two halves, improving from a 13-28 start to a 23-18 finish, partly fueled by the emergence of Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara as capable two-way wings. This summer, they reinforced this trend by trading Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to the starting center role (a move that involved buying out Ayton), clearly affirming and strengthening a defensive identity. It remains uncertain whether the offense, now without Simons, possesses enough firepower to reach the play-in tier, and they will rely heavily on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe showing significant backcourt growth. Nevertheless, for a team with the West`s second-longest playoff drought (only San Antonio`s is longer), the outlook in Portland is showing signs of improvement.
Tier 5: Searching for Direction (“What`s the Plan?”)
Sacramento Kings
Across 1,121 possessions last season with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine sharing the court, the Kings generated a solid offensive rating of 117.4. By Cleaning the Glass metrics, this placed them in the 72nd percentile league-wide – respectable production. However, over those identical possessions, their defensive rating plummeted to 120.9, ranking in the woeful 11th percentile. The Kings certainly possess star power, and they frequently provide entertaining basketball. Yet, a realistic path toward consistently winning games remains elusive. While this offensive firepower might allow them to compete for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference, it simply isn`t sufficient in the more challenging West.
Phoenix Suns
“What`s the plan?” has been a pertinent question surrounding the Phoenix Suns for some time, and this offseason has done little to provide clarity. Their return for trading Kevin Durant was underwhelming. Simultaneously, they drafted two centers and traded for another big man on draft night, yet still project to lack natural point guards or power forwards in their primary rotation. The potential starting backcourt of Devin Booker and Jalen Green presents a potentially awkward positional fit. Expect owner Mat Ishbia`s strategy of aggressively sacrificing future assets for present competitiveness to continue. However, expecting a significant number of actual wins based on the current roster construction seems optimistic, at best.
New Orleans Pelicans
One might suspect the New Orleans Pelicans believe they belong in a higher tier, given the aggressive nature of their offseason moves, most notably trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots in the 2025 draft. There are indeed reasons for optimism, primarily revolving around the potential for better health after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Herbert Jones collectively played only 103 games last season. However, with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram departed and Dejounte Murray sidelined by a torn Achilles, the team faces considerable flux with no immediately clear long-term strategy for building a consistent winner. Even in the short term, the Pelicans were not exactly world-beaters during their rare moments of full health last season, finishing 10-20 when Williamson played and posting a minus-4.3 net rating when both Williamson and Murphy shared the floor.
Utah Jazz
On one hand, Lauri Markkanen remains with the team. The organization reportedly aimed to add Jusuf Nurkic. And the new president of basketball operations stated clearly that “You won`t see that this year” when asked about tanking. On the other hand, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton this summer for minimal returns, drafted an 18-year-old project in Ace Bailey, and is projected to field the league`s youngest starting backcourt. Despite their stated intentions, the Jazz could realistically lose 60 or more games this season, given their current roster deficiencies and the overall competitive strength across the rest of the Western Conference.
