The financial landscape of the National Basketball Association is undergoing a seismic shift, pushing player salaries to figures that were unimaginable just a few years ago. While the concept of professional athletes earning millions per year is long-established, the league is now rapidly approaching an astonishing new threshold: a player earning a million dollars for every single game they play.
This isn`t science fiction; it`s the inevitable trajectory of the NBA`s economics. Recent contract signings, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s supermax extension projected to reach nearly $79 million annually by its final year, serve as a clear indicator that the league is on the cusp of this unprecedented financial milestone. Earning $79 million over an 82-game regular season schedule puts a player remarkably close to that $1 million per game mark – specifically, over $963,000 per contest. The next wave of superstar contracts is set to cross it.
Fueling the Financial Fire: Supermax Deals and TV Billions
Two primary forces are driving this rapid acceleration in player earnings, particularly at the top tier: the strategic design of the collective bargaining agreement and a colossal influx of television revenue.
Introduced in 2017, the “designated veteran extension,” commonly known as the supermax, allows eligible players – those with significant league tenure who meet specific performance criteria (like All-NBA selections) and remain with their original team – to sign extensions starting at 35% of the league`s salary cap. This mechanism was designed to give teams a powerful tool to retain their homegrown superstars, but it also ties the highest possible salaries directly to the growth of the league`s overall revenue, which dictates the salary cap.
And revenue is booming. The NBA recently finalized a massive new television rights deal worth $76 billion over 11 years, equating to nearly $7 billion per season. This is a dramatic increase from the previous deal`s average of $2.7 billion annually. This surge of capital acts as rocket fuel for the salary cap.
To prevent the kind of immediate, massive jump in the cap seen in 2016, which dramatically altered the competitive balance, the new CBA includes “cap smoothing” measures. These limit annual cap increases to a maximum of 10%. While this prevents a single gargantuan leap, consistent increases, even at 7% or 10% annually as currently projected, create a powerful compound effect over time. What starts as a 10% raise on $141 million (the 2024-25 cap) quickly adds up, potentially doubling the cap within a decade.
This upward pressure means that the starting salary for supermax contracts escalates year after year. What began around $34.7 million in 2017 is projected to exceed $70 million within the next few seasons. Consequently, the 5% annual raises built into these long-term deals apply to ever-larger base salaries, pushing the final year earnings into previously uncharted territory.
The Candidates: Who Reaches $82M First?
Based on current projections for cap growth, players who become eligible for and sign supermax extensions in the coming seasons are the most likely candidates to break the $82 million per year barrier. This generally means players from the 2020 draft class and beyond.
While some players from the 2019 class were once considered, few have consistently met the stringent All-NBA criteria required for supermax eligibility. The focus now shifts to the talent that followed.
From the 2020 draft class, Anthony Edwards stands out as a prime candidate, having earned multiple All-NBA selections. Should he continue on this trajectory and sign a supermax extension when eligible (likely in the summer of 2027), his contract could easily exceed $82 million annually within its later years. Tyrese Haliburton, another star from that class, also possesses the talent but faces uncertainty following an untimely Achilles injury.
Looking ahead, the 2021 draft class features promising players like Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley, who have already earned All-NBA honors, positioning them as strong contenders for future supermax deals. Other potential candidates include Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, and Franz Wagner. Whichever of these rising stars consistently achieves the necessary accolades is highly likely to be among the first to command $1 million per game salaries as their extensions reach peak value in the early 2030s.
Younger draftees, such as Victor Wembanyama from the 2023 class, also represent future players who could realistically sign contracts averaging well over $100 million annually, easily surpassing the $1 million per game mark when their extensions kick in years down the line.
It`s worth noting that even veteran stars can reach astronomical annual figures through shorter extensions, though these deals may not reach the *peak* values of the longest supermaxes. Devin Booker`s recent two-year extension worth $145 million, for instance, carries a higher annual value than SGA`s supermax but doesn`t extend as far into the future where the cap is projected to be even higher.
A Global Context: How NBA Salaries Stack Up
While a million dollars per NBA game is unprecedented in basketball history, other major sports have already seen players surpass this per-game or per-appearance earnings rate, albeit under different structural conditions.
In Major League Baseball, elite starting pitchers earning $35 million or more per season effectively make over $1 million for each of their roughly 32 starts. Similarly, the highest-paid NFL quarterbacks can earn upwards of $3 million per game. These comparisons highlight the unique nature of each sport`s schedule and player impact.
However, the NBA stands out due to its combination of high per-game pay *and* the volume of games played. MLB pitchers make a lot per start but only make 30-something starts. NFL stars earn handsomely per game but play only 17 games plus playoffs. NBA players benefit from a long 82-game schedule, meaning their massive per-game earnings translate into truly staggering total annual compensation that rivals or exceeds most athletes in other team sports, particularly those not fueled by sovereign wealth funds.
The “Bargain” Behind the Billions
Despite the eye-watering numbers, there`s a compelling economic argument to be made that the NBA`s absolute top superstars remain a financial “bargain” for their teams, even at $1 million per game.
Consider the value these players generate. Top players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contribute significantly to their team`s win total – estimated at over 20 wins last season for SGA alone. At the league`s cost-per-win calculation (total team spending divided by total regular-season wins), that production is already valued far higher than $79 million. This is before accounting for the incalculable value of leading a team deep into the playoffs or winning a championship, the boost to franchise value, and the massive revenue generated through ticket sales, merchandise, and global popularity.
Estimates from a decade ago placed LeBron James`s value to the Cavaliers at well over $100 million annually, even when the salary cap was less than that amount. Factoring in inflation and the league`s overall growth, the true economic value of a truly franchise-altering superstar today likely exceeds $150 million per year – potentially double the upcoming $1 million per game threshold.
While not every player on a maximum contract provides this level of value, for the true elite – the league-defining talents – the impending $1 million per game salary, while historic, will likely still represent less than their actual economic contribution to the league and their team.
Ripple Effects and Future Considerations
As salaries continue their steep climb, several potential ripple effects could emerge within the NBA. The debate around “load management” could intensify, with fans and commentators potentially showing less tolerance for highly compensated players sitting out games. After all, if a player is earning a million dollars for a given night, public scrutiny on their availability is likely to increase.
These massive paychecks could also alter player decision-making. While the maximum possible salary remains a powerful motivator and status symbol, does the marginal difference between, say, $75 million and $85 million per year hold the same weight when multi-generational wealth is assured regardless? This could potentially lead more stars to prioritize factors like team fit, market location, or championship contention over maximizing every last dollar, potentially testing the free agent market more often or even taking slightly less to help their team manage the salary cap`s punitive “second apron.”
Ultimately, the arrival of the $1 million per game NBA player is more than just a headline-grabbing figure; it`s a quantifiable marker of the league`s immense financial health and the outsized impact of its top talent. It underscores that in the modern sports economy, true superstardom commands a premium that continues to redefine the boundaries of athlete compensation.
