Forget daily fantasy sports with their fleeting triumphs and immediate disappointments. The true test of prognostication, the deep dive into the potential futures of mixed martial arts athletes, unfolds over years, not days. This is the philosophy behind MMA Fighting`s unique UFC Fantasy League, which recently launched its third season. Unlike typical fantasy formats, this league requires its participants – a panel of seasoned MMA journalists and analysts – to draft teams of 12 fighters expected to perform optimally not just next week, but over the next eighteen months, running all the way through the close of 2025.
With the midway point of 2024 now firmly in the rearview mirror, Season 2 of this ambitious endeavor has concluded. The previous season saw Alexander K. Lee emerge victorious, demonstrating a knack for spotting high-scoring talent over the long haul. Interestingly, a pre-season fan poll had predicted a different outcome entirely, proving once again that predicting the unpredictable world of MMA is a hazardous business. Lee`s success was significantly bolstered by the performance of fighters like Joshua Van and Merab Dvalishvili, who delivered substantial points for his team.
But in the world of sports, as in combat, dwelling on past results is a luxury one can seldom afford. With Season 2 wrapped, the focus immediately shifts to the future. Six analysts – Alexander K. Lee, E. Casey Leydon, Mike Heck, Damon Martin, Jed Meshew, and Guilherme Cruz – have stepped back into the arena for Season 3. Their task? To select 72 fighters (12 each) across the major weight classes and a wildcard slot, assembling rosters they believe will accumulate the most points based on performance criteria over the next year and a half. Points are awarded for wins, finishes, performance bonuses, and other key in-cage actions.
The draft mechanics for Season 3 added an interesting twist. Adopting a reverse snake draft order based on the Season 2 standings meant that Guilherme Cruz, who finished last, had the distinct advantage of picking first. To further complicate (or perhaps simplify?) matters, each participant was allowed to retain one fighter from their Season 2 roster before the draft even began. This set the stage for strategic decisions right from the outset.
The early picks in the draft naturally reflected the perceived top-tier talent and current momentum in the UFC. Picking first, Guilherme Cruz opted to retain flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, a fighter known for his activity and finishing ability, currently riding a wave of momentum despite being 35 years old. Jed Meshew, picking second, went with heavyweight knockout artist Sergei Pavlovich, banking on his historical ability to end fights quickly, though acknowledging a recent decision win that bucked the trend. Damon Martin secured lightweight king Islam Makhachev, a logical choice given his pound-for-pound standing and potential move to welterweight. Mike Heck grabbed featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, another fighter seen as a potential superstar with a penchant for finishes.
Other high-profile early selections included heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall (E. Casey Leydon), a dominant force when active, and bantamweight standout Joshua Van (Alexander K. Lee), retained after his high-scoring Season 2 performance. The middleweight division saw champions Dricus du Plessis (Alexander K. Lee) and potential challengers Khamzat Chimaev (Mike Heck) go early, highlighted by their upcoming clash.
As the draft progressed, strategies diverged. Some analysts targeted established champions like Zhang Weili (Cruz) and Alexander Volkanovski (Martin), betting on their continued dominance and potential for high-profile fights. Others focused on highly active fighters, regardless of championship status, such as Kevin Holland (Meshew), who somehow went undrafted in Season 2 despite frequent octagon appearances. Prospects and recent Contender Series signees also featured prominently, representing calculated gambles on emerging talent. Names like Jean Silva (Cruz), Shara Magomedov (Meshew), Zhang Mingyang (Leydon), Ateba Gautier (Heck), Tallison Teixeira (Cruz), Michael Morales (Martin), Jacobe Smith (Leydon), Fatima Kline (Meshew), Carli Judice (Meshew), Alexia Tainara (Lee), Malcolm Wellmaker (Meshew), Azamat Bekoev (Martin), and Torrez Finney (Lee) indicate a significant investment in the potential future landscape of the UFC.
Wildcard picks offered further insight into individual strategies. Beyond new signings like Gautier and Morales, seasoned veterans like Michael `Venom` Page (Heck), despite being listed by the league as a middleweight despite his own claims, found a spot. Active contenders like Anthony Hernandez (Cruz) and Gregory Rodrigues (Leydon) were chosen, likely for their high-paced, finish-oriented styles. Even fighters with recent setbacks or inactivity issues, such as Carlos Prates (Lee), Manel Kape (Leydon – notably sidelined), Tatiana Suarez (Leydon – with a history of not competing frequently), and Umar Nurmagomedov (Leydon – recently inactive), were selected, representing belief in their eventual return to form and scoring potential.
The draft also saw analysts betting on pivotal upcoming fights. Picks like Max Holloway (Lee) and Dustin Poirier (Leydon) ahead of their trilogy bout, or Reinier de Ridder (Leydon) and Robert Whittaker (not drafted) facing off, show analysts prioritizing fighters with guaranteed near-term activity and potential for significant points. The flurry of light heavyweight picks late in the draft (Guskov, Reyes, Prochazka – returning from injury/education, Murzakanov – notably inactive) suggests analysts see opportunities for movement and scoring in that division.
Ultimately, the MMA Fighting UFC Fantasy Draft Season 3 is a fascinating exercise in long-term projection in a sport defined by short-term chaos. Injuries, unexpected upsets, fighter inactivity due to negotiations or external factors – all these variables loom large over the next eighteen months. Each pick represents an analyst`s best guess at navigating this uncertainty. Will the champions hold strong? Will the prospects deliver on their promise? Will the veterans defy age and inactivity? We won`t have the definitive answers until the end of 2025, but the draft itself provides a compelling snapshot of who some of the keenest observers in the sport believe are the fighters to watch. It`s a competition among the analysts, sure, but also a conversation starter for fans: who would *you* pick to dominate the UFC through 2025?
