David J., a professional sports bettor, spends his evenings tracking live scores rather than watching games. Confident in his betting strategy, he remains unfazed by game outcomes. On December 2, 2024, however, was an exception.

A potentially damaging situation for David J.`s reputation and finances unfolded in Minnesota. The Los Angeles Lakers were trailing the Timberwolves by 15 points in the final quarter, and LeBron James was having an unusually low-scoring game. In his Iowa basement, David J. nervously watched the game.

Earlier, he noticed that FanDuel was offering bets on James scoring at least 10 points in a game. Thinking it was almost guaranteed for a player like LeBron, he started betting on it, accepting the unfavorable odds. In December, he decided to publicly share his bets, risking thousands to win just a few hundred if James reached 10 points.

On December 1st, a screenshot of his $10,125 bet at -1800 odds against the Utah Jazz, aiming for a $562 profit if James scored 10+, went viral, gaining 3.3 million views on X. He boasted about it to friends and engaged with critics online, reveling in the win when it happened in the second quarter.

“I laughed at those calling me an idiot, which might be true,” David J. admitted. “It was fun getting millions of views.”

The following night, December 2nd, was more tense. James, who had scored 10+ points in every game since 2007, had only seven points with 12 minutes left against the Timberwolves. With a possible early exit for James and the end of his streak, David J. grew anxious about his $9,000 bet and potential social media backlash if his bet seemed to jinx the streak.

“It would have been incredibly embarrassing. I feared LeBron fans blaming me if the streak ended. I was very nervous,” he chuckled. “It was exciting, but also nerve-wracking.”

James made a layup with 11:24 remaining and then a free throw two minutes later, reaching 10 points before leaving the game with seven minutes left and the Lakers down by 25. David J. was relieved, avoiding online criticism and winning $562.50.

The Popularity of Betting on LeBron`s 10-Point Mark

This high-stakes betting market, centered around whether LeBron James will score at least 10 points, attracts significant action, often involving professional bettors on opposing sides.

FanDuel stopped offering this bet per game in mid-December, focusing instead on odds for James maintaining the streak for the rest of the season. FanDuel set odds at -6000 for James to continue scoring 10+ points in remaining games before a groin injury on March 8th against Boston. He scored 22 points before leaving that game.

With traditional sportsbooks moving away from game-by-game bets, wagering shifted to peer-to-peer platforms like ProphetX. Here, users trade virtual currency on sports outcomes directly with each other, instead of betting against a sportsbook.

Jake Benzaquen, ProphetX co-founder, noted, “We see six-figure virtual currency trades most nights, involving many customers, from large players on the `Yes` side at -5000 odds, to smaller players on the `No` side at long odds like 50-1.”

David J. claims to be up around $42,000 betting `yes` on James this season. His largest bet was on Christmas Day, risking $74,275 at -7000 odds for James to score 10+ against the Warriors.

“HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER,” he posted during the game. “YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.”

He won $1,250 by the second quarter when James surpassed 10 points with a three-pointer.

The Other Side: Betting Against LeBron

Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and bettor in his mid-20s, has taken the opposite side of David J.`s bets. He believes the streak`s hype has inflated the odds and has bet against James scoring 10 points in some games this season.

“I`ve lost over $10,000 on it,” Chris D. stated.

He argues there`s value in betting against the streak when odds reach 65-1 or longer. He estimates the true probability of James not reaching 10 points is about 2%, or 50-1. Using AI to analyze NBA injury history and considering James` age (40) and durability, he focused on how much James values the streak.

“I differ from others here,” Chris D. explained. “LeBron likely wants the streak to continue, but he holds the record already. It`s probably less significant to him now than people think.”

“I`m not a LeBron hater,” he added. “For me, it`s about the price.”

David J. disagrees, convinced James is highly motivated to maintain the streak. He believes the real odds of James scoring under 10 points are less than 1%, closer to 120-1. Statistically, James has scored fewer than 10 points in 8 out of 1,550 regular-season games, or 0.52%.

Both bettors essentially wager on the chance of James getting injured early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James injured his ankle early in the second quarter against Atlanta. With seven points then, he stayed for one more play, made a three-pointer to reach 10 points, and then exited, missing the next 17 games due to the injury.

James returned from a groin injury on Saturday in a loss to Chicago, scoring 17 points, securing another win for David J.

“If he gets to eight points, he`ll reach ten,” David J. predicts. He has improved his betting setup since December. Now betting from Arizona, he notes the increased liquidity in the James 10-point prop bet since his social media posts, but also the higher prices.

“You can still bet a lot most game days,” he says, “but at higher prices.”

Even with prices climbing to -7000, requiring a $7,000 risk to win $100, David J. believes it`s worthwhile and plans to continue betting on James as much as possible, despite critics.

“Being on the -7000 side is good,” he concludes. “Even if it`s a bad bet, there`s a good chance to prove the doubters wrong.”