The Dallas Stars hold a 3-2 lead over the Colorado Avalanche and have a chance to win their first-round series in Game 6 this Thursday. Dallas took the series lead with a commanding 6-2 victory in Game 5 against the experienced Avalanche, who were Stanley Cup champions in 2022. For the Stars to finish the series in Game 6, they must secure the win on the road in Colorado. Should the Avalanche force a seventh game, the series will conclude back in Dallas.
According to SportsLine consensus odds, the Colorado Avalanche are favored at home with -193 money line odds, while the Dallas Stars are the road underdogs at +160. The total goals line is set at 6, with the Over being slightly favored at -120.
Colorado`s roster features numerous star players, none more prominent than Nathan MacKinnon, who finished the regular season as the NHL leader in assists and ranked second in overall points. MacKinnon has recorded seven points through five games in this series against Dallas, including three points during the Avalanche`s 5-1 victory in Game 1. His individual prop bet for total points is set at 1.5, and the SportsLine Projection Model gives a highly confident 5-star rating to one side of this wager. This particular pick is included as one of the three components in today`s NHL same-game parlay for the Stars-Avalanche matchup.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times to provide data-driven insights. The model identifies top-rated player prop picks for every game, with ratings assigned up to five stars. These highly-rated selections are valuable tools for constructing successful parlays, including same-game parlays, across various betting platforms.
SportsLine`s Top Game 6 Prop Picks
Here are the three top-rated player prop picks from the SportsLine model for Thursday`s Game 6 between the Stars and Avalanche. Combining these picks into a same-game parlay yields potential odds of +338.
- Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 total points (-146): 5 stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-184): 5 stars
All three of the model`s top-rated prop plays for Thursday`s Game 6 received 5 stars, and all three players involved are from the Colorado roster. We begin with MacKinnon, arguably the most significant star in the game. With seven points through five games this series, he is averaging 1.4 points per contest. However, over the last four games, his average drops to just one point per game. The model projects MacKinnon to score only 0.4 points in Game 6. He has gone Under his total points prop in each of his last five home games, averaging just 0.8 points per contest in those matchups.
Brock Nelson, who joined Colorado mid-season from the New York Islanders, has contributed two assists in this series. The model favors the Over on his 1.5 total shots on goal prop, projecting the veteran center to record 2.5 shots. Nelson is averaging 2.2 shots on goal per game in this series and has averaged 3.4 shots over his last five home games, clearing his prop line in each of them.
Similarly, Martin Necas, another trade deadline acquisition for the Avalanche, is projected to exceed 1.5 shots on goal according to the model. The model projects Necas to record 2.9 shots on goal in Game 6. He has successfully gone Over this prop line in eight of his last 15 games played against teams with a winning record, averaging 2.7 shots on goal per game during that span.
