We are in the final weeks of the 2024-25 NBA regular season, and teams are focusing on the playoffs. However, there are still many games remaining before the regular season concludes on April 13.
Although the Oklahoma City Thunder have secured the top seed in the Western Conference, the competition for the second seed in the West remains intense. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks have already guaranteed their playoff spots.
From contract bonuses to the race to tank for the first pick in the draft, our NBA experts Brian Windhorst, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, Zach Kram, and Jamal Collier analyze what to watch for in the final weeks of the regular season.
- Which player`s contract incentives should we follow?
- Which playoff contender has the most at stake this postseason?
- Which playoff seeding battle in the East should we watch most closely?
- Which tanking team needs Cooper Flagg the most?
- OKC is 13½ games ahead in the West. Who will secure the No. 2 seed?
- Which players should we watch to meet the 65-game criteria?
Which player`s contract incentives should we follow?
Fifty-three players, including Kevin Durant, Derrick White, Aaron Gordon, and Dejounte Murray, had contract incentives at the start of the season. These incentives ranged from All-Star Game selection (Durant) to the number of three-pointers made in a season (White). Durant, White, and Jae`Sean Tate (team wins) have met their criteria and will collectively earn $2 million. White also earned an additional $500,000 for playing in at least 70 games.
Regarding the rest of the list, projections indicate that only five players — Dillon Brooks, Jonathan Isaac, Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul, and Julius Randle — are on track to achieve regular-season bonuses.
Brooks will receive $1 million if the Houston Rockets secure a playoff berth. Johnson will gain $562,000 if his true shooting percentage stays above 60% — currently, it`s 63.2%. Paul is just one win away from $262,000. Paul also has two more bonuses (net rating and true shooting) that he is on pace to achieve, which would bring him an additional $523,000. Randle`s $1.4 million bonus depends on the Timberwolves reaching the first round. They are currently in the play-in tournament but are only half a game behind the Golden State Warriors for the sixth seed.
Isaac`s bonus — an extra $2.6 million for playing in 70 regular-season games for the Orlando Magic — was considered the most unlikely at the season`s start. He has struggled with injuries throughout his career and played only 69 games in the previous two seasons. This season, he has played in 65 games, on pace to play the most since 2018-19. — Bobby Marks
Which playoff contender has the most at stake this postseason?
Memphis has risen in importance after firing coach Taylor Jenkins with less than three weeks left in the season, bringing two significant factors into play.
Firstly, the Grizzlies are taking a gamble by entrusting the team to interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, a coach known for his high-intensity and system-oriented approach who has been successful overseas but lacks NBA playoff experience. This bold move could be inspired by general manager Zach Kleiman, who believes in Iisalo`s fast-paced, high-movement offense that deviates from NBA norms. Within a month, this change — Jenkins had been moving away from an aggressive offensive style in recent weeks as the Grizzlies struggled — might propel Memphis into a strong postseason run.
Secondly, how do the team`s star players feel about this direction? This season, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have seen reductions in their minutes, shot attempts, and points. The Grizzlies` offensive efficiency has improved compared to last season. However, questions about Morant`s feelings regarding these changes, especially as he becomes eligible for a contract extension this summer, sparked rumors about his future in Memphis, which Kleiman refuted after the trade deadline in February.
The core issue is that the Grizzlies have underperformed. They were the second seed in the West after excellent regular seasons in 2021-22 and 2022-23 but failed to reach the conference finals, partly due to Morant`s off-court issues. Last season was marred by constant injuries and Morant`s suspension. Now, after again reaching the second seed in early February, the Grizzlies have been slipping in the standings and losing momentum as the playoffs approach. They need to prove their capabilities when it truly counts. — Brian Windhorst
Which playoff seeding battle in the East should we watch most closely?
Keep an eye on the three-way contest for the fourth through sixth seeds between the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Milwaukee Bucks. This race has become more interesting after the Bucks announced that Damian Lillard is sidelined indefinitely due to blood clots in his right calf. Although reports suggest optimism that Lillard will return this season, the Bucks will be without their key guard for a significant period and have already lost six of their last 10 games, dropping to the sixth seed.
Indiana, conversely, has been one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break, with a 13-8 record, while Tyrese Haliburton is performing like an All-NBA player again. Then there are the rising Pistons, aiming to host a first-round series in their first playoff appearance since 2019. If the Bucks cannot climb out of the sixth seed, they are likely to face the Knicks in a high-profile first-round matchup where the winner would probably face the Celtics in the second round. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers would have a much easier path to the conference finals with potentially less experienced teams in their way in a possible second-round series. — Jamal Collier
Which tanking team needs Cooper Flagg the most?
In the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz remained competitive for over half of their schedule before tanking towards the end of the season. Consequently, they picked ninth and tenth in the last two drafts and missed out on landing a franchise cornerstone. This season, they started tanking early — and were fined for violating the league`s player participation policy — and are now almost guaranteed to have the best lottery odds.
Utah needs Flagg more than any other team vying for a better lottery position. The Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets are still in the early stages of their rebuilds, while the Charlotte Hornets already have a potentially dynamic duo in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Furthermore, the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers are expected to be competitive again next season with improved health. However, the Jazz traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three years ago and are still without a young star to build around. Flagg would fill that gap. Although the Duke freshman would be a valuable addition to any lottery team, he would be particularly impactful in Utah, forming a formidable defensive frontcourt with Walker Kessler and partnering with another tall, skilled forward in Lauri Markkanen. — Zach Kram
OKC is 13½ games ahead in the West. Who will secure the No. 2 seed?
The Western Conference`s second seed is Houston`s to lose at this point, despite it seeming unlikely at the season`s beginning. The Rockets hold a two-game lead over the Nuggets, and the tiebreaker between these teams will be decided on the final day of the regular season in Houston.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers are within striking distance if the Rockets falter down the stretch, trailing by 4½ and 3½ games in the standings, respectively. Two of the Rockets` remaining eight games are on the road against the Lakers. — Tim MacMahon
Which players should we watch to meet the 65-game criteria?
There is no need to worry about stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Anthony Edwards being ineligible for postseason awards. All three have met the 65-game criteria. Gilgeous-Alexander is eligible for MVP consideration, and Jackson has qualified to sign a five-year, $345 million supermax extension if he is named All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year. However, a group of past award winners are currently short of the criteria. This group includes Nikola Jokic (64), Evan Mobley (64), LeBron James (63), Jalen Brunson (61), Stephen Curry (62), Giannis Antetokounmpo (62), Kevin Durant (62), Domantas Sabonis (61), Jaylen Brown (59), and Draymond Green (59). A player must play at least 20 minutes for a game to count, with a allowance of two games between 15 to 20 minutes. — Marks
