The initial round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has already provided numerous thrilling moments, including overtime games and standout performances. These events serve as a crucial reminder of how small differences can ultimately determine the outcome of best-of-seven series.
A prime example is Aaron Gordon`s buzzer-beating dunk that secured Game 4 for the Denver Nuggets in their intense series against the LA Clippers. When reviewed frame by frame, the margin was incredibly narrow as the ball left Gordon`s hands just before the clock expired. This single play could be the deciding factor in a series where the Nuggets now hold a 3-2 advantage.
Given the limited number of games played in the first two weeks of the postseason, the trends that have become prominent in the first round are unlikely to persist long-term. Nevertheless, it`s valuable to consider whether they might influence the series that are still ongoing, particularly Wednesday`s critical Western Conference matchups.
Are the Minnesota Timberwolves` ability to finish strong in close games and the Houston Rockets` success with a two-center lineup sustainable strategies? The answers to these questions could determine if the Los Angeles Lakers can force a Game 6 against Minnesota and if the Golden State Warriors can eliminate Houston.
Let`s analyze the data to try and distinguish which of these initial playoff takeaways represent actual trends and which are merely temporary occurrences.
Trend: Are the Timberwolves Dominating in Clutch Time?
Minnesota`s struggles in winning close games were a major reason they had to fight to avoid the play-in tournament, despite having the second-best point differential (+5.0 PPG) in the Western Conference during the regular season. The Timberwolves finished 20-26 in games classified as clutch by NBA advanced stats (games within five points in the final five minutes), and their -8.4 net rating in these situations was better than only two other playoff teams: the Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat.
Close contests in this series were expected to favor the Lakers, who went 23-16 in clutch games and secured the No. 3 seed in the West with the eighth-best point differential. However, after splitting two blowout games in Los Angeles, Minnesota posted a +14 net rating in clutch situations during a pair of tight games at home, pushing the Lakers to the brink of elimination.
By nature, clutch performance in a single series can be influenced by random small-sample variation. Despite Anthony Edwards` efforts late in games, the Timberwolves` most efficient scorer on field goals in these critical moments is center Naz Reid, who has made 3-of-3 attempts from 3-point range. It`s difficult to project this specific success forward to a potential second-round series where Minnesota would hold home-court advantage if the No. 7 seed Warriors also advance.
Within this specific series, however, the Lakers` clutch problems seem less random and more tied to fatigue. The Lakers` successful strategy since adding Luka Doncic has been to have him control the first three quarters before LeBron James takes over in the final minutes. In Game 3, Doncic`s illness disrupted this plan, forcing James to carry too heavy a load early on.
During Sunday`s Game 4, Lakers coach JJ Redick opted not to trust his reserve players for even a minute in the second half, keeping the same five players on the court. Both scenarios left James appearing exhausted during the closing stretch. In Game 3, the Lakers scored only one point (a free throw) in the final 4.5 minutes. While role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura made a couple of 3-pointers late in Game 4, Doncic and James went scoreless in the final five minutes, missing all four of their shots.
If just one or two plays had gone differently on Sunday, the Lakers could have won, and they might still manage a clutch victory on Wednesday to extend the series. However, the Timberwolves` greater depth gives them an advantage in close games, reversing what was expected to be a Lakers strength.
Verdict: Real for this series, not real beyond
Trend: Does a Double-Big Lineup Trouble the Warriors?
After occasionally pairing 6-foot-11 centers Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun in the first three games against the Warriors, the Rockets fully committed to the double-big lineup in Monday`s Game 4. Adams and Sengun played 23 minutes together, their most this season, and the Rockets outscored the Warriors by 18 points during that time.
One of the few adjustments Warriors coach Steve Kerr found in Game 4 was intentionally fouling Adams, who shot just 46% from the free-throw line during the regular season. However, instead of leaving Adams in to be tested from the stripe as in Saturday`s Game 3, Houston coach Ime Udoka removed him, and he didn`t return until the final two minutes when intentional fouls away from the ball are penalized more severely.
Heading into Wednesday`s Game 5, we can anticipate seeing Adams and Sengun on the court together more often. But we likely shouldn`t expect the same level of dominance from the Rockets. While Houston has significantly outrebounded Golden State on the offensive glass with Adams and Sengun playing together throughout the series (rebounding over half of their own missed shots when both are on the court), Monday`s results were significantly boosted by unusually high shooting percentages. The Rockets made 7 of 9 three-pointers (78%) with the double-big lineup on the floor, while the Warriors shot just 6 of 23 (26%) against Houston`s frequent zone defense.
From Golden State`s perspective, the real concern might be future matchups. After all, Houston`s decision to play Adams and Sengun together is partly a reaction to how ineffective their more traditional lineups have been, with Jalen Green scoring in double figures in only one of the four games (which, not coincidentally, was Houston`s only win). Udoka had only used his two centers together for more than a single possession once before March.
If both Golden State and Minnesota advance, the Timberwolves` pairing of Rudy Gobert and Reid offers similar size but with better floor spacing and more experience playing together. And should Golden State reach the conference finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder`s starting frontcourt of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren could expose Golden State`s relative lack of size and defensive rebounding more consistently than the Rockets have.
Verdict: Not real this series, real beyond
Trend: Are Key Players Logging Too Many Minutes?
JJ Redick isn`t the only coach hesitant to rely heavily on their bench players in the first round. With Russell Westbrook sidelined for Saturday`s Game 4, Nuggets interim coach David Adelman played his starters at least 42 minutes. Both Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun remained on the court for the entire second half. This is the second time Jokic has played a full half in this series, matching the total number of times he did so during the Nuggets` entire 2023 championship run.
More broadly, eight players are averaging at least 40 minutes per game in the first round so far, with four Nuggets players (Braun, Gordon, Jokic, and Jamal Murray) logging 39.1 minutes or more. In an era where the playing time of star players is carefully managed, this level of usage stands out. First-round playing time reached its lowest point between 2016 and 2020, during which only 10 total series featured a player averaging at least 40 minutes (LeBron James accounted for three of these, Paul George three, Giannis Antetokounmpo two, and two other players one each).
However, we`ve seen an increase recently. During the 2024 first round, 14 players reached the 40-minute average, the highest number in a decade. To some extent, limiting minutes during the regular season is intended to allow players to handle heavier workloads during the playoffs when it matters most. Still, averaging over 40 minutes across an extended playoff run presents a significant challenge.
Since 2018, only three players who averaged over 40 minutes in the first round saw their teams reach the NBA Finals. All three of these teams—Devin Booker with the 2021 Phoenix Suns, Jayson Tatum with the 2022 Boston Celtics, and Luka Doncic with last year`s Dallas Mavericks—ended up losing in the Finals. The last eventual champion whose player averaged at least 40 minutes in the first round was LeBron James in 2016.
This could be good news for the Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, who didn`t need to push their stars in their dominant sweeps. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City with 35 minutes per game, and no Cleveland player averaged more than 31.3 minutes.
Verdict: Real, but potentially worrisome
Trend: Has the Boston 3-Point Barrage Slowed Down?
After setting an NBA record by attempting 48 three-pointers per game during the regular season, the Celtics currently rank 11th among the 16 playoff teams in the first round, attempting just 33 per game against the Orlando Magic.
Capitalizing on their athletic big men and physical guards, the Magic have been comfortable switching on pick-and-rolls and defending one-on-one, keeping their help defenders positioned to prevent open looks for Boston`s dangerous shooters.
According to GeniusIQ tracking on NBA advanced stats, the Celtics still rank fifth in pull-up three-point attempts (12.5 per game), but their 20 catch-and-shoot attempts per game—down from 30.7 in the regular season—are tied for the third lowest in the playoffs.
Although Orlando`s weak offense couldn`t capitalize, could the Magic`s defensive approach against the Celtics serve as a blueprint for future opponents? The answer is mixed. The downside to Orlando`s strategy is that the Magic—one of five teams to average at least 20 fouls during the regular season—sent the Celtics to the free-throw line frequently. Boston`s 26.3 free-throw attempts per game lead all playoff teams, a significant increase from the 19.1 attempts per game they averaged during the regular season (the fewest in the league).
As a result, simply limiting three-point attempts hasn`t derailed Boston`s offense, which still ranks sixth in scoring rate on a per-possession basis. Considering Orlando boasted the NBA`s second-best defensive rating in the regular season, this offensive performance from Boston is quite good. Moreover, not every team possesses the personnel capable of switching on pick-and-rolls as frequently as the Magic did (46% of the time, according to GeniusIQ) without creating unfavorable matchups.
The New York Knicks and Cavaliers, Boston`s most probable remaining opponents, have smaller guards who might struggle defending players like Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jayson Tatum one-on-one. The Knicks also won`t want to leave Karl-Anthony Towns isolated against Brown or Tatum.
The team best equipped to emulate the Magic`s defensive game plan is the only team that had a better defensive rating this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, Oklahoma City has employed the opposite strategy. Thunder opponents attempted three-pointers at the league`s highest rate, including 109 attempts for Boston in their two regular-season meetings. But the Celtics only made 27% of those attempts, as Oklahoma City swept the season series.
Verdict: Not real
Trend: Is OKC Concerned About SGA`s Slow Start?
After scoring 18 points on October 30th in a win against San Antonio, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reached at least 20 points in all of his remaining 75 regular-season games. Only Wilt Chamberlain (80 games, twice) and Oscar Robertson (76) have achieved longer single-season streaks. In this context, it`s noteworthy that the MVP front-runner was relatively subdued over the first three games of the Thunder`s first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with just 15 points in 23 minutes during Oklahoma City`s dominant 51-point Game 1 victory. While he scored a total of 58 points in the following two games, this came on an uncharacteristically poor 20-of-55 (36%) shooting. Only in Game 4 did Gilgeous-Alexander score efficiently, putting up 38 points on 13-of-24 shooting and making 11 free throws.
Memphis guard Scotty Pippen Jr. deserves credit for his defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. On 25 shots contested by Pippen as the closest defender, Gilgeous-Alexander`s quantified shot probability (qSP)—the expected effective field goal percentage based on shot type, location, and defender distance—was just 49.5%, compared to 54% during the regular season, according to GeniusIQ.
On all other shots, Gilgeous-Alexander`s qSP was 54%, the same as his regular-season average. Yet, Gilgeous-Alexander actually shot an effective 45% on those attempts.
Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 16-of-53 (30%) on attempts outside the paint in the first round. He typically made these shots at a 43% rate during the regular season. There appears to be no significant cause for concern as the Thunder look ahead to the second round and beyond.
Verdict: Not real
