With the 2025 NBA draft approaching, it`s time to analyze how the top prospects statistically project at the professional level. These projections are based on a model that factors in translated statistical performance from college or non-NBA professional leagues, combined with age and a player`s rank among ESPN`s top 100 prospects, to estimate their long-term value.
As anticipated, Duke`s Cooper Flagg stands out as the top-ranked prospect according to this model. He`s not alone, however, as several other freshmen, including his teammate Kon Knueppel, also feature prominently in both the statistical projections and the overall top 100 rankings. This level of consensus among top prospects often suggests a strong likelihood of successful translation to the NBA. Let`s delve into the top 30 prospects currently ranked in ESPN`s top 100 after the early entry deadline, including some names that might surprise you.
- 1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
- 2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
- 3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
- 4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
- 5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
- 6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
- 7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
- 8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
- 9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
- 10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
- 11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
- 12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
- 13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
- 14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
- 15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
- 16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
- 17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
- 18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
- 19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
- 20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
- 21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s
- 22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
- 23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
- 24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
- 25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
- 26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
- 27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
- 28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
- 29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown
- 30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
The conversation around Flagg isn`t just about whether he`s the best prospect in this class, but where he ranks historically. Only Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson had better projections as No. 1 picks by this model. Luka Doncic is the only other player with a superior rating in the consensus model. Flagg is unique in this draft class for not rating significantly worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any key statistical category used to assess strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Having Flagg`s teammate ranked directly behind him is perhaps unexpected. Based purely on college performance, Knueppel would likely fall a few spots, aligning closer with his No. 9 ranking in the Top 100. However, Knueppel showed the strongest projection among all prospects who played in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. In 2023, he recorded a .642 true shooting percentage with 35% usage, suggesting greater shot creation potential than he demonstrated playing alongside other talents at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Alongside Flagg, Edgecombe is the other prospect in this class who ranks in the top five according to both the stats-only model and the Top 100, which is typically a strong indicator. While his offensive efficiency during his single season at Baylor was moderate (50% on 2s and 34% on 3s), he contributed across the box score. Edgecombe projects significantly better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in rebound, block, and steal rates. This defensive upside provides him with a high floor, while his growth as a shooter will be crucial for his overall potential.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper presents a contrasting case to Knueppel. He had a more impactful college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG with good efficiency considering his significant role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage). However, Harper was slightly less effective in EYBL play, which contributed to Knueppel ranking ahead in the combined model. Harper particularly excelled as a finisher in college, converting 57% of his 2-point attempts, the best mark among one-and-done perimeter prospects.
Rutgers` Dylan Harper reminds NBA draft analyst Jeremy Woo of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson.
5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection might seem unusual. Evans averaged only 13.8 MPG coming off the bench for Duke, yet the model highlights his potential as a shooter. This isn`t solely based on his 42% 3-point accuracy, as the limited attempts mean his NBA projection is heavily weighted towards the average. However, Evans` volume of 12 3-point attempts per 40 minutes gives him the highest projected shooting volume of any one-and-done player in the model`s database. Given his relatively limited contributions beyond shooting, he would need to be elite in that area to become an NBA rotation player. Returning for a sophomore year in a larger role would provide more data for a clearer projection.
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was a primary offensive force at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage rate was the highest among major-conference freshmen, just ahead of Flagg. Considering this heavy workload, Fears` ability to score with average efficiency was commendable. However, to justify a similar role in the NBA, Fears needs to improve upon his 28% 3-point shooting. A positive indicator is his 85% free-throw accuracy, which often correlates with future 3-point success.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a draft class where many top prospects performed well statistically, Bailey was an exception. Specifically, his shotmaking ability didn`t translate into high efficiency due to his challenging shot selection. A significant portion of his attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. While he made these at a decent 43% clip, it`s considerably less efficient than the effective 52% he shot from beyond the arc. In the right NBA system, Bailey could develop into an effective offensive player, but a team that doesn`t utilize his skills properly might not maximize his potential.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Now considered lottery territory, Essengue is less of a sleeper but still ranks higher in the stats-only projection as the top international prospect. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in limited minutes (23.7 MPG), shooting 66% on 2-point attempts against older competition. Essengue won`t turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest player in the Top 100, behind only Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Murray-Boyles` strong production in his second year at South Carolina caught the attention of scouts. Playing in the nation`s strongest conference, he averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. Although slightly undersized for a traditional big man at 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles was productive across the board, exhibiting seven statistical strengths according to the model – the most of any prospect, just ahead of Flagg`s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty also had six strengths but more weaknesses and didn`t crack the top 30).
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Jakucionis shows promising signs offensively. He`s a strong finisher near the basket, hitting 56% of his 2s, which is excellent for a guard. His 84.5% free-throw accuracy suggests potential for improvement on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois, complementing his playmaking skills. However, defensive concerns arise. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and recorded only nine blocks throughout the season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin`s blend of court vision and size (6-foot-9) allows him to create passing lanes effectively, giving him the third-best assist projection among players in the Top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also an efficient finisher from the backcourt due to his size, making 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, optimism regarding his shooting is lower; he made only 27% of his 3-point attempts and shot just under 70% from the free-throw line.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson`s high-volume scoring profile is a type of skillset that doesn`t typically rate highly in this model. His usage rate is his only significant strength, while he performed below average in rebounding, steals, and blocks. His projection hinges on how efficiently he can score in the NBA. He was reasonably effective at the college level due to 40% 3-point shooting but was less efficient in EYBL play, where he shot only 34% from three in the 2023 campaign.
Texas` Tre Johnson joins `NBA Today` to discuss his decision to declare for the draft.
13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My top-rated sleeper prospect outside the first round of the Top 100, Byrd`s ranking is boosted by his unusual combination of high steal and block rates for a guard. Over the past decade, only a few other draft picks have projected for at least two steals per 100 possessions and to block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle, and Zion Williamson. Although Byrd shot only 30% from the college 3-point line, his excellent 83% free-throw accuracy suggests he could develop enough shooting proficiency to stay on the court and utilize his defensive skills.
14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The eldest son of former NBA guard Jason Richardson improved significantly during his freshman season, demonstrating strong statistical performance. Only Flagg rated better among eligible first-year players by Stathead.com`s box plus-minus metric. Richardson`s ranking in the stats-only model is slightly lower partly because his strong 41% 3-point shooting is regressed to the mean, and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL, where he shot only 33% from three. Nevertheless, at the back end of the lottery range, Richardson appears to offer good value.
15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Playing both frontcourt positions, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 PPG on 63% 2-point shooting and 6.9 RPG. His long-term NBA position is less certain because he projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but needs to develop the shooting required to play power forward. He made only 29% from the college 3-point line on low volume but was more accurate from the free-throw line (75%).
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-point attempts and not accurately enough from three (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the lowest among all Top 100 prospects this season. Fland performed better in the 2023 EYBL and exhibits a high steal rate, but the statistical model aligns more with scouts` views that his poor shooting makes him a more suitable second-round pick.
17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Highly efficient offensively, shooting 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the free-throw line with a relatively high usage rate (16%) for a big man who primarily operates near the rim, Maluach didn`t rate as strongly on the defensive end. Compared to a typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach`s 7% block rate was low, and he recorded only eight steals all season. However, statistical models may not fully capture Maluach`s potential versatility as a switchable big defender, which helps explain his lottery projection.
18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Primarily fitting a 3-and-D profile as a freshman, Bryant hit a promising 37% of his 3-point attempts, a high 59% of his infrequent 2-pointers, and blocked shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Among non-post players in the Top 100, only Nolan Traore has a better block projection according to the model.
19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
A standout performer during the NCAA tournament, Clayton`s rise in the Top 100 brought him closer to his consistent ranking in the stats-only model. The model valued Clayton`s strong sophomore season at Iona, where he was MAAC Player of the Year, and his career 39% 3-point shooting. At 22, he was expected to be more productive than younger prospects ranked ahead, but he still surpassed many peers even accounting for his age.
Walter Clayton Jr. highlights the Gators handling adversity so well all season and credits his teammates for stepping up in Florida’s championship win over Houston.
20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
McNeeley was an inefficient scorer at UConn, making 32% of his 3s and 44% of his 2s, but there are reasons to believe his shooting could improve. He hit 37% of his 3s in the 2023 EYBL and was an excellent 87% free-throw shooter at UConn, which is a positive indicator for future perimeter shooting.
21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Fleming was already noted in statistical models for his solid rebounding and shot blocking before his offensive breakout in 2024-25. With increased usage, he also achieved a career-high 39% from three, demonstrating the stretch-four ability necessary for him to succeed at the power forward position in the NBA.
22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Following Tyler Kolek`s departure, Jones transitioned into a more on-ball role in 2024-25 after excelling off-ball with Kolek. He more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while also increasing his scoring, earning consensus All-America honors as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) suggest Jones could be effective as a creator and scorer off the bench in the NBA.
23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Ranked as the top shooter in the draft class by the model, Brea offers clear value with his 43% career accuracy from beyond the arc and sufficient size (6-foot-6) to get his shot off against NBA defenders. A team that can utilize his movement shooting more effectively could potentially unlock further potential; he shot an impressive effective 59% coming off screens last season, although he only had 31 such attempts in Kentucky`s offense.
24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Coming off the bench for a deep Auburn team that started five seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer behind NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara as a freshman. He needs to improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on 2s as an undersized point guard prospect, but an assist-to-turnover ratio near 2 was a positive sign.
25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Sandfort experienced an offensive dip as a senior, with career-low shooting percentages on both 2s (49%) and 3s (34%), but he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and is a career 90% free-throw shooter. A key question for Sandfort is how much of his success was influenced by the specific offensive system at Iowa. The program has produced four draft picks since 2021, but only Keegan Murray (No. 4 pick) has become a consistent NBA rotation player.
26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After standing out at last year`s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore opted for professional play in France instead of college. He quickly became a notable player in the French LNB playoffs. He entered the year ranked fifth in the Top 100 but his performance during the season saw his ranking decline. Positively, Traore has the best assist projection of any player in the Top 100, averaging 5.2 per game in only 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) caused him to drop out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.
27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Although Coward played only six games for Washington State after transferring and under a new coach, the success of NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells, who also came from the same program (Eastern Washington), might benefit Coward`s draft stock. At Eastern, Coward was a highly efficient scorer, shooting an exceptional 72% on 2s and 39% on 3s. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and passer for a small forward.
28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) off the bench as a freshman, Riley will need to improve his 3-point shooting to secure an NBA wing role. He shot 33% at Illinois and only 31% in the 2023 EYBL, although his 72% free-throw percentage in college offers some mild optimism for future shooting development.
29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
It might be surprising, but no Georgetown player has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013. Sorber will almost certainly end that drought if he remains in the draft, after averaging 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 2.0 BPG as a freshman. While those numbers are strong, the statistical bar for center production at the NCAA level is high, which works against some prospects like fellow DMV freshman Derik Queen of Maryland (who didn`t make the top 30 despite being 10th in the Top 100). By contrast, Sorber was a significantly more effective shot blocker than Queen according to the model.
30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
A starter on UConn`s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban decided to stay while the rest of the starting five moved on to the NBA. He didn`t quite take the expected step forward as a scorer, with his accuracy on both 2s (54%) and 3s (35%) declining slightly despite a larger role. However, Karaban did show improved playmaking, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also recorded a career-high block rate with Donovan Clingan no longer anchoring the defense.
