Player Comparisons for 14 Projected Lottery Picks in the 2025 NBA Draft

Welcome back for another year as we explore professional player comparisons for the top prospects expected to be selected in the 2025 NBA draft lottery. Drawing comparisons can be a useful exercise, provided it`s approached realistically and avoids exaggeration.

The purpose here isn`t to find a perfect match for each of the 14 projected lottery talents, as guaranteed accuracy is impossible. Instead, this exercise serves as a framework for contemplating a prospect`s potential future role, assessing the possible range of career outcomes, and identifying key areas for development crucial to their long-term success. This type of analysis aids conceptual player evaluation and helps visualize how a prospect`s skill set might integrate with a specific NBA team.

With the draft only a few weeks away, let`s examine both high-end and low-end comparisons for each player currently projected among the first 14 selections, plus an extra player who is gaining attention from teams as a potential lottery pick.

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Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke

High end: Jayson Tatum with more defense

Low end: Andre Iguodala with more offense

Flagg is widely regarded as the likely first overall pick for good reason. Statistically and empirically, he appears on track to become one of the NBA`s premier wings. A consistent question among NBA executives has been about the ultimate level of success Flagg might achieve. His balanced offensive game and exceptional defense provide remarkable foundational versatility for an 18-year-old entering the league, something teams like the Mavericks should be able to capitalize on immediately. Some around the league liken him to a modern Scottie Pippen, while Flagg himself has stated he models his game after Tatum, his favorite player.

If Flagg continues to develop his ability to create his own shot—an area where he`s shown comfort in the midrange but still requires refinement—a scoring leap akin to Tatum`s is conceivable. He has improved this aspect of his game recently, becoming more comfortable from distance and showing potential for improvising and operating off the dribble. If he doesn`t evolve into a primary scoring option, he might best fit as a second star alongside a teammate who focuses more on scoring.

While Flagg is expected to provide more offense than Iguodala, who never averaged over 20 points per game, that comparison highlights how he could contribute significantly beyond just personal scoring. As with most comparisons, the probable outcome often falls somewhere in the middle. In Flagg`s case, the spectrum of possibilities is more exciting than concerning for NBA evaluators.

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Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers

High end: Jalen Brunson but bigger

Low end: D`Angelo Russell

Harper`s mix of size, strength, scoring ability, and playmaking makes him a very attractive prospect with the skills to potentially lead an offense as a high-usage star in an ideal scenario. Although Harper`s size (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) should make him a more impactful defender, the Brunson comparison works broadly: both rely on skill, drawing fouls, and attacking angles to outmaneuver defenses. Brunson was a better three-point shooter coming out of Villanova, an area Harper must improve to reach his full potential. However, there`s a scenario where he develops this skill and becomes a core offensive leader.

Harper`s high floor, partly due to his size advantage in ball-handling situations, is a significant part of his appeal – his combination of strengths makes it difficult to envision him failing in the NBA. Projecting his less optimal outcomes, he`s still likely to be a solid starter. He might end up being an average shooter, and his defensive consistency could be an issue based on past tendencies. These possibilities could limit his effectiveness as a primary or secondary option for winning teams, but his game could still adapt effectively to a smaller role.

Russell, the second pick in 2015 and an All-Star in his fourth year, has been productive but hasn`t consistently led winning teams. Harper should make an impact early, but his career trajectory will depend on team context and continuous improvement.

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Ace Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers

High end: Michael Porter Jr.

Low end: Andrew Wiggins

Bailey is arguably the draft`s most explosive shotmaker, a skill that clearly demonstrates his significant scoring potential. The main long-term question is how he will effectively utilize this talent, as other aspects of his game are still developing. He possesses the size to shoot over most defenders, a knack for hitting difficult shots, and a shooting form that looks good for catch-and-shoot situations from deep.

However, he isn`t a natural creative ball-handler, often stopping his dribble and settling for a shot rather than navigating through defenses, which can make his style predictable, although not always easy to defend. It`s challenging to rely on Bailey developing the playmaking and handling skills needed for high on-ball usage, making Porter Jr. an interesting comparison. As a prospect in 2018, Porter faced similar questions about his passing and handling and benefited from joining the Denver Nuggets, where his shooting was maximized by surrounding him with playmakers, and he wasn`t forced outside his comfort zone as a creator.

It`s easy to envision Bailey`s efficiency and game improving significantly in such a context as a second or third scorer. However, at this stage, it`s harder to see him becoming a genuine primary scoring option. If that doesn`t materialize, his career might resemble Wiggins, who has been a consistent scorer but hasn`t always been a key contributor to winning basketball.

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VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor

High end: Victor Oladipo

Low end: Jaden Ivey

The key appeal with Edgecombe largely revolves around the possibility that he develops into a capable on-ball creator, where his speed, strength, and exceptional athleticism could pose significant challenges for defenses. Providing him with the necessary opportunities to make this leap will be the crucial first step wherever he is drafted. His style as a downhill, highly athletic slasher makes Victor Oladipo a relevant comparison. Oladipo took time to find his footing in the NBA and fully broke out in his fifth season before a 2019 knee injury impacted his career. There are similarities in their play styles and paths entering the league, including the need to improve their outside shooting consistency and enhance their ability to generate offense while handling the ball.

Edgecombe possesses All-Star potential if everything aligns for him. While there`s inherent risk in his profile given the adjustments required to fully utilize his physical gifts, it`s also easy to see a solid floor of potential value due to his likely contributions as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition player. The comparison to Jaden Ivey is slightly complex because the Pistons guard is still developing, though he started clicking last season before an injury. Aggressive slashing guards in this mold who need to learn decision-making often require time to find success in the league.

Edgecombe`s range of offensive outcomes could be quite wide, but at worst, he should still be a highly useful backcourt contributor, enhancing his appeal as a potential top-five pick.

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Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma

High end: Monta Ellis

Low end: Jerryd Bayless

Fears` profile features intriguing stylistic elements that make finding a comparison challenging. He effectively drives to the basket and pressures the paint with more courage and skill than a typical guard his size. However, he hasn`t been a historically strong three-point shooter (28.4% at Oklahoma last season), suggesting a somewhat old-school baseline archetype. Given his age (18) and the progress he showed with the Sooners, Fears has the potential to become a dangerous scorer and playmaker, but much depends on whether he can achieve efficiency. Either his perimeter shooting must improve (a reasonable expectation considering his strong free throw percentage of 85.1% last season) or his ability to score inside the paint needs to translate effectively enough to support the rest of his game.

Looking back about a decade, Monta Ellis offers an interesting stylistic comparison as a smaller, high-volume scorer and creator who often struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-range shooting throughout much of his career. It`s certainly possible Fears could surpass that level, but it might be a significant leap to count on him becoming a top jump shooter, although he should improve with added strength and experience. If that development doesn`t occur, he might end up resembling more of a Bayless type—a combo bench scorer in the long run—representing a potential downside given how high he is likely to be selected.

Fears` flashes of significant talent offer optimism, but there`s a relatively wide range of potential outcomes due to the numerous variables that need to favor his development for him to become a star.

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Tre Johnson, SG, Texas

High end: Michael Redd

Low end: Cam Thomas, but taller

Johnson is a relatively straightforward prospect to understand. He is likely to shoot well, probably going to shoot frequently, and any other contributions he provides to his future team will be a bonus, not necessarily an expected part of his role. Johnson`s smooth and compact shooting motion will make him a threat from deep, and he has shown the ability to create his shot off the dribble with the kind of fearlessness needed for a volume scorer—though this can sometimes lead to questionable shot selection. He will also need to improve his efficiency and finishing closer to the basket.

If Johnson can come close to the career trajectory of Michael Redd (whose peak in the early 2000s was unfortunately cut short by serious knee injuries), that would be an excellent outcome, and there are some comparable elements. Redd became one of the era`s top three-point shooters and handled a heavy scoring load primarily due to the threat of his unique jumper. It`s worth noting that Johnson appears significantly ahead of where Redd was at the same age (Redd was a career 31.9% three-point shooter at Ohio State and a second-round pick). Johnson`s mechanics are much cleaner and project more safely.

It`s a reasonable expectation that Johnson can develop into a dynamic volume shooter—the key question is whether he can do so efficiently and within a winning team context. These are similar questions that have surrounded Cam Thomas`s value due to comparable tendencies he has shown four years into his NBA career.

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Khaman Maluach, C, Duke

High end: Rudy Gobert, but quicker

Low end: Daniel Gafford, but bigger

Maluach fits neatly into the mold of a rim-protecting, rim-running center, an archetype that has maintained its value despite the NBA`s various stylistic shifts over the past two decades. He is still learning the nuances of the game and refining his defensive habits, but his sheer size serves as a deterrent in the paint. Combined with above-average mobility for his 7-foot-2 frame, this points to significant defensive potential. An efficient finisher who is currently limited in other offensive areas, Maluach could eventually become a top-tier player within his specific role.

While comparing a paint-protecting seven-footer to Gobert might seem obvious, in this instance, it effectively illustrates Maluach`s potential to provide significant defensive stability for a winning team. Achieving Defensive Player of the Year caliber heights is certainly not guaranteed, but there is inherent reliability in what he already offers, coupled with feasible areas for growth, especially if he develops a three-point shot. Maluach`s floor as a useful contributor seems quite solid regardless; centers with his physical dimensions, above-average mobility, and understanding of their role—like the comparison to Gafford—tend to find a lasting place in the league.

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Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke

High end: Desmond Bane

Low end: Joe Harris

Knueppel is a strong candidate for being the draft`s best shooter, but it`s the breadth of his overall offensive game that has elevated him into potential top-five consideration. NBA teams were positively surprised by Knueppel`s decision-making and passing ability at Duke, where he thrived in a significant role requiring him to both facilitate offense and space the floor at a high level. His average athletic profile—he`s not particularly fast or quick—is the main concern regarding his projection, potentially limiting some of his high-end outcomes if he struggles to create elite-level offense.

Desmond Bane was an underestimated prospect in the 2020 draft coming out of TCU, where he was a career 43.2% three-point shooter but was seen as an average athlete with short arms and limited upside. He quickly exceeded those expectations, becoming a vital player for the Grizzlies in his second season. Memphis invested in his skill set and the possibility he could become more than just a 3-and-D player, giving him opportunities to make plays and take on more responsibility. Although Knueppel won`t surprise teams in the same way Bane did, his best-case scenarios align with that trajectory.

Considering Knueppel`s age (he turns 20 in early August, while Bane played four college years), his career peak could potentially surpass Bane`s in the right environment, contributing to NBA teams` optimism about his future. If he doesn`t quite develop into a shot creator capable of handling heavy usage, Knueppel should still be a top-tier shooter contributing valuable minutes on successful teams in a more limited capacity, similar to Joe Harris.

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Collin Murray-Boyles, PF/C, South Carolina

High end: Al Horford

Low end: Xavier Tillman

Murray-Boyles projects as a valuable versatile player in the frontcourt, capable of operating effectively across the floor offensively thanks to his smart passing, guarding multiple positions with his length, and leveraging his physicality and toughness. Maximizing his potential depends heavily on the development of his questionable three-point shot; if he can become a threat from outside, it will help compensate for his less-than-ideal size for a power forward. If his shot develops, Murray-Boyles could end up resembling a modern Al Horford—a versatile big man who can be instrumental to winning teams as a defensive anchor with complementary offensive skills.

Should Murray-Boyles` development stagnate significantly at the NBA level—an unlikely scenario given his age (he turns 20 in early June) and recent trajectory—he should still secure a roster spot as a useful depth player, similar to Xavier Tillman, who shared some of his innate strengths but was older and considerably less mobile coming out of Michigan State. The most probable outcome lies somewhere between these two possibilities.

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Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois

High end: Austin Reaves

Low end: Delon Wright

Jakucionis is a skilled playmaker as a 6-foot-6 guard, possessing the instincts and ability to handle the ball effectively, along with a developing shooting stroke. Relying on changes of pace, timing, and improvisation rather than top-tier speed, he excels in screen situations and plays an unselfish style that should allow him to succeed whether or not he evolves into a full-time lead guard. He needs to improve his ball security (3.7 turnovers per game) and three-point shooting (31.8%), but his demanding role at Illinois required taking risks, contributing to some of those inefficiencies.

It`s plausible that Jakucionis will be valued similarly to Austin Reaves, another crafty combo guard with whom he shares stylistic traits. Reaves entered the NBA at a much older age and quickly established himself as a key player for the Los Angeles Lakers. Jakucionis might take longer, but he is notably more developed than Reaves was at the same age; Reaves played four college years and went undrafted. In a worst-case scenario, Jakucionis`s well-rounded skill set and ability to play both guard positions should still ensure him a long-term place in the NBA as a reserve.

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Egor Demin, PG/SG, BYU

High end: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey

Low end: Kyle Anderson

The appeal and raw talent that Demin brings as an oversized playmaker are clear; he possesses arguably the best passing vision in this draft class. These types of players are always in demand, as NBA teams covet perimeter size and feel for the game that can adapt to various roles. There are two critical factors for Demin`s projection: how much opportunity he will get to handle the ball and the consistency of his long-range shooting. His below-average foot speed and streaky three-point stroke introduce some risk. He isn`t quick when creating off the dribble and will need his shot to keep defenses honest to maximize his playing time.

While not perfect comparisons, Josh Giddey—a historically below-average shooter who is most effective creating with the ball—and Deni Avdija—who has settled into a role as a versatile off-ball forward in recent seasons—can illustrate the different roles Demin might eventually fill. Whether he is capable of playing as a quasi-lead guard or if he provides more value as a connecting player away from the ball remains to be seen, but both paths are viable depending on his development. If his progress stalls and he doesn`t secure a top rotation role, he could still provide long-term valuable depth, similar to Kyle Anderson over the past decade.

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Derik Queen, C, Maryland

High end: Alperen Sengun

Low end: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Queen offers considerable offensive talent, with the face-up skills and passing ability to operate effectively across the floor and facilitate good offense. The success of players like Alperen Sengun, who was viewed as an unconventional prospect and fell into the late teens in the 2021 draft, provides a precedent for Queen`s potential. He needs to become a more active rebounder and a more committed defender—areas that would be aided by improving his physique and conditioning. He also needs to develop a more dependable three-point shot. There is a place for skilled, offense-oriented big men in today`s NBA, but there is also risk involved when relying on players with less than ideal physical attributes and defensive skills, something teams consider when projecting Queen`s future value. If he doesn`t maximize his abilities and become a cornerstone player, at worst, his talent and basketball intelligence will still help him find a role. Sandro Mamukelashvili, an offensive-minded big who has settled into a deep bench role in the NBA, represents an extreme low end—Queen is significantly more talented—but that comparison underscores the potential downside if Queen struggles to stay on the court defensively. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

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Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)

High end: Clint Capela

Low end: Jaxson Hayes

Beringer`s projected role in the NBA is straightforward and well-established: he is expected to catch lobs, run the floor, protect the paint, and potentially switch briefly on defense. Considering he doesn`t turn 19 until November and has only been playing basketball for three years, NBA teams see attractive upside due to his strong physical tools and above-average agility for a young center. He is still in the very early stages of his development, which carries some risk but also provides a long path for his next team to develop him into a potential long-term starting center. When describing this specific type of center, Clint Capela is often the classic reference point. Although Beringer is unlikely to space the floor or threaten with his jumper, these kinds of big men can still succeed when surrounded by shooting and playmaking, capable of finishing plays and being a threat around the basket without needing designed touches.

Jaxson Hayes, who was drafted eighth overall in 2019 based on his impressive physical tools and similar upside projection, has never settled into a starting-level player but has maintained a role in the NBA after six seasons. Beringer will likely fall somewhere along this spectrum, depending on how quickly he can adapt to the NBA game and get the most out of his talent.

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Carter Bryant, SF/PF, Arizona

High end: Trey Murphy III

Low end: Royce O`Neale

Bryant`s appealing combination of perimeter size, defensive versatility, passing intelligence, and a clean shooting stroke fits a valuable NBA archetype. He should provide lineup flexibility, covering multiple positions on both ends of the court, with room for growth offensively. It`s difficult to anticipate a significant leap from Bryant in terms of creating his own shot; major improvements in that area could place him on a trajectory similar to Trey Murphy III, another player who developed later as a 3-and-D type and took time to blossom as a scorer. Admittedly, this comparison might have seemed better before Murphy`s notable scoring improvement last season in New Orleans. It`s challenging to expect that level of offensive production from Bryant, but he has time. If he can develop into a higher-volume threat from long range, he could add value even if he never reaches the 20-point threshold, as Murphy recently did.

If Bryant`s development stagnates and he remains primarily a useful bench player, he could still profile as a larger version of Royce O`Neale, who has effectively filled gaps and shot well from both forward positions for much of his career.

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