Game 7 of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs conference semifinals between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers is set for Sunday in Toronto. The Maple Leafs forced this decisive game by winning Game 6 in Florida 2-0 on Friday, snapping their three-game losing streak and setting the stage for a winner-take-all matchup. The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena.
Ahead of this crucial Game 7, the Florida Panthers are listed as -130 favorites on the moneyline, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are underdogs at +109. The total goals over/under is set at 5.5. The Panthers also have a puck line of -1.5 (+205). For insights and betting recommendations, let`s look at the analysis from a proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has shown success in the 2025 NHL playoffs, with a strong record on top-rated puck-line and over/under picks.
Here are the model`s top betting picks for Sunday`s game:
Over 5.5 Total Goals
The pick is Over 5.5 total goals. Four out of the six games in this series have exceeded this total, with at least seven goals scored, including all three previous games played in Toronto. Both teams were strong offensively during the regular season, with Toronto ranking seventh in goals per game (3.26) and Florida 15th (3.0). The SportsLine model predicts the Over will be the outcome in over 50% of its simulations for Game 7.
Carter Verhaeghe: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Another pick is for Carter Verhaeghe to have over 2.5 shots on goal. Verhaeghe has averaged 2.5 shots per game in this series and has been aggressive, leading the Panthers in total shot attempts (6.5 per game). He has been finding the net recently, with two goals in his last four games, including a key goal in Florida`s Game 4 victory. In a critical Game 7, the model anticipates the regular-season 20-goal scorer will be highly aggressive in generating shots towards the net.
Auston Matthews: Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
The model also suggests taking Auston Matthews to register over 3.5 shots on goal. As the team`s main center, Matthews scored his third playoff goal in Game 6 and has recorded three or more shots in all but one game this postseason. He leads Toronto in total shots in this series (24) and was one of their most aggressive players in Game 6 with four shots. With the Maple Leafs needing offensive production in a do-or-die game, the model projects Matthews to be active in shooting the puck.
