With just two regular-season games remaining for each of the 30 NBA teams, the playoff picture, especially in the Western Conference, is still taking shape. While the Eastern Conference`s top seeds are mostly decided, the West remains highly competitive, with teams ranked 3rd through 8th being separated by a mere 2 games as of Friday.
Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder securing the top seed in the West, predicting the conference`s playoff outcomes is challenging. One Western Conference executive noted the unpredictable nature, describing it as “matchup dependent and then it`s rock, paper, scissors from there.”
To gain insights into the Western Conference playoff landscape, ESPN consulted various scouts and executives. Their predictions cover a range of topics, including whether the Los Angeles Lakers are true title contenders, the potential impact of the LA Clippers, and the Denver Nuggets` and Memphis Grizzlies` outlook following recent coaching changes.
How the Lakers Address Their Key Weakness
The importance of team size, or lack thereof, could be a defining factor in this year`s postseason, particularly for the Lakers. To leverage their roster`s strengths, Lakers coach JJ Redick has implemented a perimeter-focused strategy. The aim is to effectively share the ball among their scorers while minimizing the impact of their limited interior size.
An opposing executive pointed out how players like Luka Doncic and James Harden historically elevate the play of their centers. The Lakers, in contrast, are relying on Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith at center, whose skill sets may not be as readily amplified by a playmaker like Doncic. Ultimately, their success may hinge on Hachimura and Finney-Smith`s shooting accuracy.
The Lakers compensate for their lack of a traditional center with significant positional size across the roster. Austin Reaves, at 6-foot-5, is often their smallest player on the court. Even their shorter guards, Gabe Vincent (6-2) and Jordan Goodwin (6-4), bring physicality, contributing to Redick`s approach to compensate for rim protection.
The synergy between Doncic, LeBron James, and Reaves on the perimeter has been a major positive. Reaves, instead of seeing his role reduced alongside two dominant ball-handlers, has excelled since Doncic`s arrival, evidenced by his improved 3-point shooting volume and accuracy since February 10th.
A veteran scout acknowledged the Lakers` abundance of shot creators, posing a challenge for opponents. However, the team`s overall individual defensive talent is a concern. While Redick`s system has been effective in the regular season, the playoffs may present different challenges as teams are expected to target James, Doncic, and Reaves defensively over extended series.
The scout questioned how the Lakers will withstand a potentially lengthy playoff run given these defensive vulnerabilities, stating, “Luka has to guard somebody, and you can wear him down… In the playoffs you will see teams target LeBron and Luka, put them in the pick-and-roll.”
Regarding LeBron, the scout noted, “The thing with LeBron is he`s not going to foul; you can score on him with the right matchup. With the right personnel he could be exposed on defense in the playoffs… but it`s a worry.”
Warriors: A Team Nobody Wants to Face
Following the acquisition of Jimmy Butler III, Warriors coach Steve Kerr openly stated their goal was to secure a top-six seed. Their initial performance with Butler and Stephen Curry playing together, winning 19 of 21 games, suggested this goal might be too modest. However, Kerr`s statement reflected the roster`s inherent limitations despite its potential.
An Eastern Conference executive commented on the Warriors` reliance on small ball, contrasting it with their championship teams that featured positional size, including players like Andrew Bogut, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant. The executive expressed skepticism about their current small-ball approach`s sustainability for a deep playoff run, wondering if asking Draymond Green to play center more frequently at his age is too demanding and suggesting a potential return to relying more on Looney.
Despite any limitations, Butler`s arrival has undeniably boosted the team`s confidence, a sentiment echoed by Curry and Green. This renewed belief aligns with Curry`s preseason aspiration to play “meaningful” basketball again. Regardless of whether the Warriors win another title or reach the Finals, their preseason objective has been achieved.
A Western Conference executive emphasized confidence as the key factor for the Warriors, stating, “The most important thing is their confidence, not their record… Jimmy has provided that.” Concluding with a strong statement about their playoff potential: “I would not want to play them in any round.”
Nuggets Remain a Threat Despite Coaching Change
The Denver Nuggets have experienced significant upheaval recently, firing coach Michael Malone and deciding not to renew general manager Calvin Booth`s contract. This makes them the second team in under two weeks to change head coaches.
A Western scout commented on the timing of the changes, saying, “At some point you need a new voice, but the front office didn`t do a good job of building out the roster the past couple years outside the top guys… Is it surprising? No. But it`s shocking from a timing standpoint.”
Denver`s challenges extend beyond personnel changes. Jamal Murray is again sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Aaron Gordon has also faced injury issues. Russell Westbrook`s inconsistent play has been apparent, and the team`s defense has declined to 22nd in the league since the All-Star break.
However, league insiders still believe the Nuggets are capable of a deep playoff run, primarily because of one player.
“They have [Nikola Jokic],” a scout stated. “That automatically gives you a chance.”
Grizzlies Need Morant to Elevate His Game
Before the trade deadline, the Memphis Grizzlies were performing strongly, having won 10 of 11 games and holding the second seed in the West. Their subsequent decision to trade veteran defender Marcus Smart was a cap-clearing move made from a position of strength.
Since then, the Grizzlies have faced significant challenges, including injuries to star guard Ja Morant, the firing of coach Taylor Jenkins, and a drop in the standings. Adding to their woes, rookie Jaylen Wells suffered a broken wrist, sidelining him indefinitely.
A Western executive highlighted the impact of Wells` injury, noting, “Losing Jaylen is a huge piece. He`s their primary point-of-attack defender.”
The Grizzlies` recent win against the Detroit Pistons was their first against a winning team in two months. Since the All-Star break, their offense (17th) and defense (18th) have been below average. They are also navigating the fallout from the dismissals of Jenkins and assistant coaches.
A key question for the Grizzlies is the performance of Ja Morant. His recent on-court behavior has drawn attention, and his playoff performance will be crucial in determining the team`s potential. The league is watching to see if Morant can return to his previous level of play and lead the Grizzlies.
An Eastern executive expressed doubts about the team`s resilience, stating, “I`m not sure they have the internal fortitude to overcome what`s been thrown at them. They`re betting on Ja to be the guy from 2.5 years ago. Everyone is waiting for him to come back, but he hasn`t yet.”
A Western executive added, “At this point, I don`t know if there`s a series where Ja will be the best player. Maybe against Houston.”
Rockets: A Tough Playoff Opponent
The Houston Rockets have been a surprise success story this season, achieving a No. 2 seed in the West due to their strong defense and roster depth, particularly in the latter half of the season.
An Eastern Conference scout praised coach Ime Udoka`s impact, stating, “Ime [Udoka] has done the best job, people in the media should have the guts to vote for him for Coach of the Year. Whoever plays against them is going to hate it.”
Given the presence of more experienced and star-studded teams in the West, and the Thunder leading the conference, facing Houston in the early playoff rounds might seem like a favorable matchup. However, for a young team like the Rockets, the playoff experience itself will be valuable, serving as a significant test of their capabilities.
One scout described the Rockets as “a fascinating team,” noting their offensive inconsistencies and need for a consistent scorer. Despite this, they have created a positive environment for Jalen Green to develop. The scout concluded, “I`m intrigued to see how they`ll do in the playoffs. I like them, I don`t love them.”
Minnesota Timberwolves: Playoff Run Uncertainty
The Minnesota Timberwolves` season has been marked by phases of inconsistency, partly due to injuries to key players like Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Rudy Gobert. They have demonstrated their ability to compete with top teams, evidenced by their combined 6-2 record against OKC and Denver, but have also suffered disappointing losses, like their recent game against the Milwaukee Bucks.
An executive expressed uncertainty about their playoff prospects, stating, “It`s hard to have confidence in them. They`re a younger team, they`re immature at times… There`s a lot of unknowns. How much will they trust Randle? How durable is Conley? But they could get hot.”
The Timberwolves` previous playoff run showcased their potential, including a first-round series win against the Phoenix Suns and a conference semifinal upset of the defending champion Nuggets. Despite their season`s inconsistencies, their high ceiling suggests they are capable of another deep playoff run.
A scout identified them as a potential “sleeper” in the West playoffs, saying, “I think they`re very, very good. They have a nice blend of everything… They`re well balanced. Conley isn`t what he once was, but I`m intrigued to see what they can do.”
Clippers: Leonard`s Health is Key
While other Western Conference teams like the Lakers and Warriors have grabbed headlines with trades, and the Nuggets and Grizzlies have faced internal changes, the Clippers have quietly positioned themselves for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
An executive acknowledged their strong play, stating, “I think they`re really good. Zubac is so underrated… and they have two players who can win games in a playoff series in Kawhi [Leonard] and James [Harden].”
Despite the contributions of Zubac and Harden, Kawhi Leonard`s health remains the critical factor for the Clippers` playoff aspirations. Since March 1st, Leonard has averaged over 25 points with impressive shooting percentages (over 50% overall and 40% from 3-point range), matching the production of MVP contenders like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant.
Crucially, Leonard has played consistently during this period, appearing in 17 games and averaging 35 minutes. If he can maintain this level of play and availability, the Clippers will be a formidable playoff team. However, Leonard`s health has been a recurring concern in recent years.
The executive concluded with cautious optimism, “Kawhi looks good… But let`s see how he looks in a couple weeks. We`ve seen him get to this point and then break down.”
