Following an action-packed two weeks of first-round NBA playoff action, featuring dramatic Game 7s and decisive series sweeps, the highly anticipated second round is set to begin.
The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, fresh off a dominant regular season and a first-round sweep of the Miami Heat, are the first team from the East to reach the conference semifinals. They are scheduled to face Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers on Sunday, after the Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks for the second consecutive year.
The reigning 2024 NBA champions, the Boston Celtics, continue their quest for back-to-back Finals appearances. Their next challenge comes Monday against a resilient New York Knicks squad, which emerged from a challenging first-round series against the Detroit Pistons.
Out West, the Denver Nuggets, having survived a tough seven-game battle against the LA Clippers, will now square off against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in a highly anticipated MVP clash between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, starting Monday. The Minnesota Timberwolves are set to play the Golden State Warriors, who advanced after winning Game 7 against the Houston Rockets on Sunday.
As the second round commences, NBA experts weigh in on the crucial questions surrounding each series, discussing potential underdog upsets and the most compelling player matchups.
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (4)
In a battle of two elite offenses, which will prevail?
The performance gap between these two teams over the past few months hasn`t been as wide as their regular-season standings might suggest.
Since January 1, the Cavaliers hold a 35-14 record, while the Pacers are close behind at 34-14. However, Cleveland maintained its lead in the Eastern Conference throughout the season, driven by an elite offense that topped the NBA in scoring with 121.9 points per game. This figure ranks as the second-best offensive rating by any team in the last 40 years, trailing only the Pacers` 123.3 points in the 2023-24 season. In the first round of the playoffs, the Cavaliers (136.2) and Pacers (118.0) were the top two offenses, respectively, based on points per 100 possessions.
Both teams favor a fast pace, and this series may hinge on which offense successfully imposes its dominance. — Jamal Collier
The Pacers will make their second straight ECF appearance if _______.
Haliburton successfully dictates the tempo of this series against Cleveland`s All-Star backcourt. Indiana enters this matchup with more recent playoff experience, having advanced further last year than most of the Cavaliers` core players. The Pacers` postseason success is intrinsically linked to Haliburton`s performance. He has already delivered significant playoff moments over the past two years, including defeating the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last season and securing a game-winning layup in Game 5 against the Milwaukee Bucks this season to eliminate them.
Cleveland is currently uncertain about the status of two-time All-Star Darius Garland, who missed the final two games of their first-round series due to a sprained left big toe. If Haliburton can find his rhythm, spread the floor effectively, and force Cleveland`s big men to guard on the perimeter, the Pacers could put the Cavaliers in uncomfortable defensive situations. — Collier
Best bet: Cavaliers -1.5 games (-180)
I predict the Cavaliers will not only win but do so convincingly. Although the Pacers won the regular-season series, that record is misleading.
Two of Indiana`s wins occurred in April after the Cavaliers had already secured the top seed and were resting key players. The Pacers` first win against Cleveland this season also came before the trade deadline deal that sent De`Andre Hunter to Cleveland and with Ty Jerome sidelined. A full-strength Cavaliers team is significantly superior to the Pacers and can outperform them even at their preferred fast pace.
My official prediction is Cavaliers in six games, but I wouldn`t be surprised to see them close out the series in five. — Andre Snellings
Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)
After losing all four regular-season games to the Celtics, what is the biggest adjustment the Knicks need to make?
New York urgently needs to improve its ability to collapse on the Celtics` shooters, a weakness exploited during the regular season.
No other team utilized pick-and-roll drop coverage against Boston as frequently as the Knicks did, and Tom Thibodeau`s team paid a steep price, allowing Boston to make 21 three-pointers per game at an impressive 43.5% clip across those four losses.
Increased minutes for backup center Mitchell Robinson, who possesses the necessary agility to play higher on screens, will be vital, as will significant schematic adjustments on defense. — Chris Herring
The Celtics` biggest concern in this series is _____?
The availability of Jrue Holiday. Holiday missed the final three games of the first-round series against Orlando due to a hamstring injury. He was a significant contributor in the regular-season matchups with New York, averaging 16 points and three assists while shooting 67% in three games.
Crucially, he is one of the Celtics` primary defensive options against Jalen Brunson, who scored 30 or more points in five of his six first-round games.
According to NBA.com`s matchup data, Holiday defended Brunson for 80 possessions during the regular season, limiting him to just 3-for-6 shooting and six points during that span. — Herring
Best bet: Exact series total games — six (+295)
The Knicks have struggled against the Celtics, losing eight of their last nine contests.
They are also coming off a demanding series against the Detroit Pistons. While New York will pose a tougher challenge for Boston than Orlando did in Round 1, the Celtics possess simply too much offensive firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and excellent depth, including Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.
Boston is also defensively formidable. I don`t foresee a sweep, but I expect the Celtics to close out the series with relative comfort. — Eric Moody
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (4)
How do Murray and Jokic solve OKC`s league-leading defense?
They could start by reviewing the tape from the last time these teams met: a 140-127 victory for the Nuggets in Oklahoma City on March 10.
That game was Jokic`s only efficient shooting performance in four games against the Thunder, yet it was a dominant display, as he scored 35 points on 15-of-20 shooting and registered eight assists. Murray also had a strong night, scoring 34 points, more than he had combined in the other two games he played against Oklahoma City this season.
Murray will require assistance from Jokic and other teammates to free him from Lu Dort`s defense; Dort is among the league`s best at navigating screens. — Tim MacMahon
Which MVP candidate will have the bigger impact on this series?
Nikola Jokic must have the greater impact if the Nuggets hope to pull off an upset.
The Thunder are clearly the more talented and deeper team, as evidenced by their league-leading 68 wins and shattering the NBA record for single-season point differential.
However, Oklahoma City is arguably as well-equipped as any team to contain Jokic, featuring defensive-minded 7-footers like Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, along with several guards and wings who excel at disrupting passing lanes. Conversely, Denver lacks an All-Defensive caliber player to take on the primary assignment of guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. — MacMahon
Best bet: Exact series total games — five (+175)
Last summer, I predicted the Thunder would win the championship this year, and nothing I`ve seen has changed my mind. However, any team featuring `Playoff Jamal Murray` and Nikola Jokic poses a threat to win games, and even the series. It`s challenging to find strong value in this series, but I do believe Denver will secure at least one win, and the +175 odds for a five-game series seem like a reasonable payout if the Thunder win 4-1. Oklahoma City could potentially sweep, or Denver could win more than one game, but five games feels like the most probable outcome to me. The teams split the regular-season series 2-2, but I would be surprised if Denver matches that win total in this playoff matchup. — Steve Alexander
Minnesota Timberwolves (6) vs. Golden State Warriors (7)
How can Kerr plan on stopping Anthony Edwards?
Steve Kerr and his coaching staff, including defensive coach Jerry Stackhouse, have limited time to devise a plan to slow down Anthony Edwards before Game 1. Already playing with immense confidence, Edwards enters this series on a high note, having averaged 26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists in the first-round victory over the Lakers. Kerr is well aware of Edwards` talent, having coached him with USA Basketball. Edwards averaged 26 points against the Warriors this season, but Minnesota held a 1-3 record in those matchups. The last meeting was January 15, but both teams have evolved since then, with Minnesota displaying more confidence and Golden State finding its rhythm with Jimmy Butler III. The Warriors will need to rely on their championship pedigree and extensive playoff experience to get the better of Edwards, and they`ll have to deploy various defenders against the three-time All-Star. Kerr might consider assigning his best defender, Draymond Green, to Edwards, but Green also needs to manage Minnesota`s strong frontcourt players. “He`s playing with supreme confidence,” Curry commented on Edwards. “We know they had their run last year [to the Western Conference Finals] and have a new look with Randle. But it`s the same Ant who`s constantly striving to improve with every opportunity, and it`s going to be a tough challenge. We understand we`ll need to send multiple defenders at him and figure out a strategy to contain him. But yes, they are playing exceptionally well right now.” — Ohm Youngmisuk
How do the smaller Warriors avoid the Lakers` fate against Gobert, McDaniels, Randle, and Reid?
First and foremost, Green must maintain his composure and avoid foul trouble, particularly against Rudy Gobert, given their history, and steer clear of technical and flagrant fouls. He accepted responsibility for setting a poor tone in Game 6 by committing an early flagrant foul and addressed the team about it emotionally in a players-only meeting on Saturday before Game 7 against Houston. Golden State faced significant challenges against Houston`s large front line of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams and struggled to contain the athletic Amen Thompson inside. The Warriors were outrebounded by a combined 51 boards over the seven-game series, winning the rebounding battle only once in Game 5. They will face another demanding challenge on the glass against Gobert, Randle, McDaniels, and Naz Reid. The Warriors could benefit from utilizing Kevon Looney more extensively and, despite his struggles late in the first round, perhaps give rookie Quinten Post minutes due to his ability to stretch the floor. Butler can also help by looking to score and potentially draw fouls on Minnesota`s big men. — Youngmisuk
Best bet: Series total games — over 5.5 (-175)
The odds here are quite strong, but it reflects a genuinely uncertain series outcome. This is arguably the most difficult second-round series to predict. Neither team appears to hold a decisive advantage, which naturally points towards a long and competitive series. The Timberwolves possess similar characteristics of toughness, athleticism, and attitude that the Rockets displayed in their first-round series against the Warriors. They also bring considerably more offensive firepower in various forms. This matchup feels destined for a lengthy battle, making the price for over 5.5 games more justifiable in this context. — Jim McCormick
Bonus!
The underdog most likely to advance is _____.
The recent history for teams like the Timberwolves, who shift from underdogs in one round to favorites in the next, is mixed. This scenario has occurred six times since 2020, with the newly favored teams winning three of those series. Minnesota found itself in this category last year in the conference finals. After being underdogs against Denver in the second round without home-court advantage, the Timberwolves were then favored to defeat the Dallas Mavericks as the higher seed, only to lose in five games. I am still predicting Minnesota to win because Golden State`s extended run must eventually take a toll, but I consider this series essentially a toss-up. — Kevin Pelton
What is the most intriguing player matchup in the second round?
Is it permissible to say Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic? The last time the top two finishers in MVP voting squared off in the playoffs was James Harden and Russell Westbrook in 2017. That year fell within the NBA`s brief period of holding awards shows, so the results weren`t known beforehand. This time, it`s possible the MVP trophy could be presented during the series, similar to 1995, when David Robinson received the MVP award before Game 2 of the Western Conference finals against the reigning MVP Hakeem Olajuwon. Olajuwon famously responded with 41 points and 16 rebounds as the Rockets won in San Antonio. — Pelton
