The NBA`s conference semifinals represent a significant jump in both the stakes and the intensity of competition. While few predicted play-in teams, excluding perhaps the Golden State Warriors, would seriously contend for the 2025 championship, once the field narrows to eight, every remaining squad has a genuine opportunity. The opening days of the second round vividly demonstrated this, with lower-seeded road teams pulling off upsets against top seeds like the No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers, No. 2 Boston Celtics, and No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder in their respective Game 1s.
With the ultimate prize now clearly within reach, let`s analyze what each of the surviving teams would need to accomplish to hoist the Larry O`Brien Trophy this June. What core strengths must they leverage? Which vulnerabilities must they minimize? And which specific matchups would be advantageous or detrimental? Based on the title probabilities calculated by ESPN`s Basketball Power Index (BPI), here’s how each remaining team could potentially win the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 63.6%
- To reach NBA Finals: 50.6%
- To win 2025 title: 39.2%
Statistical projections overwhelmingly favor the Thunder to win the championship. This makes sense: Oklahoma City set an NBA benchmark for point differential at +12.9 per game, features a likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and boasts one of the league`s premier defenses. However, their route to a title might be more complicated than their regular-season dominance suggests. Navigating a challenging playoff bracket could prove difficult; they finished the regular season with a 2-2 record against the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, and a 1-2 record against the Golden State Warriors. They also have less playoff experience than these Western Conference rivals, which was evident in an unusual late-game collapse during their Game 1 loss to Denver.
For the Thunder to maximize their chances of securing their first title since the Seattle SuperSonics` win in 1979, their key players need to perform better. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently in a minor shooting slump during the playoffs, with a 45% effective field goal percentage, a drop from his impressive 57% in the regular season. His main supporting players also struggled significantly in Game 1: Jalen Williams made just 5 of 20 shots, while Chet Holmgren scored only 12 points and missed critical free throws in the final seconds.
Last season, the top-seeded Thunder were eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round, largely because their supporting cast couldn`t capitalize on the Mavericks` defense overloading against SGA. Williams and Holmgren must elevate their performance and show they are ready to be reliable second and third offensive options for a championship-level team.
Oklahoma City also needs to improve its rebounding. They added Isaiah Hartenstein via free agency to address the size disadvantage that plagued them against the Mavericks last postseason, yet Denver still managed 21 offensive rebounds in Game 1.
Despite one late-game collapse, the Thunder`s overall title aspirations are far from dashed. On paper, they remain the NBA`s top team. Their challenge now is to convert that potential into postseason success.
Indiana Pacers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 77.9%
- To reach NBA Finals: 37.0%
- To win 2025 title: 12.8%
The Pacers have demonstrated elite-level play for several months. They ended the regular season with a 34-14 surge, during which they ranked sixth in the NBA in net rating and were in the top 10 for both offense and defense. They have maintained this strong performance in the playoffs, comfortably defeating the Bucks and taking control of their second-round series by winning twice on Cleveland`s home court.
Indiana`s improvement coincided with the return of key role players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith from injuries. The Pacers` starting five, featuring these two alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, posted a +11.1 net rating during the regular season and have improved to an impressive +18.2 in the playoffs – the second-best among lineups with at least 25 minutes played.
The Pacers` core unit benefits from complementary skills: shooting, playmaking, fast-paced offense, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle also has reliable depth from players like T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, each of whom has contributed double-digit scoring multiple times in the postseason.
Crucially, Indiana has a clear team identity, enabling them to dictate game pace and disrupt opponents` rhythm. Led by Haliburton, the Pacers consistently create quality shots and minimize turnovers, establishing a high offensive floor nightly. Their defense has also significantly improved compared to last season, when they lacked the defensive capability to truly challenge Boston in the conference finals. In 2023-24, Indiana ranked 24th in regular-season defensive rating and 13th among 16 playoff teams. This season, they are much more balanced on both ends.
Golden State Warriors
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 78.8%
- To reach NBA Finals: 25.9%
- To win 2025 title: 12.5%
Only three players still active in the 2025 postseason have three or more championships: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. Add coach Steve Kerr, with five titles as a player and four as a coach, plus Jimmy Butler III, who, despite no rings, has anchored two unexpected Finals teams, and the Warriors clearly possess the most extensive high-level playoff experience. The Warriors will need Curry – who must overcome a hamstring strain soon, or their championship hopes are dim – and Butler to carry the load, supplemented by timely contributions from players like Game 7 standout Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
Their defense, particularly strong after the All-Star break, was the league`s best, with the Butler-Green duo controlling that end of the court and stifling opponents like the Rockets in the first round and the Timberwolves in Game 1.
Kevon Looney`s role shouldn`t be overlooked either. Although the Warriors prefer smaller lineups, the veteran center was crucial against the supersized Rockets and Rudy Gobert`s Timberwolves, and he may be essential against either Jokic`s Nuggets or the dual-big Thunder in the conference finals. The Warriors demonstrate tactical flexibility and a strong history of making effective adjustments during a series.
Another advantage for Golden State is Kerr`s ability to manage the postseason as a complete journey rather than isolated games. For instance, in their blowout Game 5 loss in Houston, Kerr conceded early, ensuring no player logged more than 26 minutes. This helped keep Curry and Butler fresh for Game 7 a few nights later, where they played 46 and 45 minutes respectively.
Unlike the teams with higher odds, Golden State might not possess the raw talent ceiling to simply coast to a title. Their offense, outside of the stars, lacks consistent firepower, and Curry`s injury complicates their path just to the conference finals. However, if he returns, they absolutely have the know-how to string together 12 more wins over the next six weeks. In any potential Game 7, they might be the most reliable bet remaining.
Boston Celtics
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 46.6%
- To reach NBA Finals: 27.1%
- To win 2025 title: 12.0%
Nine Celtics players logged over 100 minutes in last season`s playoffs, and all nine are still with the team this spring. As the saying goes, “If it ain`t broke, don`t fix it,” and coach Joe Mazzulla`s rotation remains largely unchanged from their 16-3 run to the 2024 championship. The Celtics start every game with an inherent statistical advantage because they take and make significantly more 3-pointers than any other team. They were also one of just two teams (along with the Thunder) to finish in the top five for both offensive and defensive rating this season. But Boston is more than just a system; they rely on immense talent, featuring five elite starters supported by high-quality role players like Al Horford and Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo`s Milwaukee Bucks eliminated early, Jayson Tatum has a strong claim as the top player remaining in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tatum himself has elevated his game since winning a ring in 2024 (though not Finals MVP). After missing Game 2 of their first-round series against Orlando, Tatum closed it out with scoring performances of 36, 37, and 35 points, seemingly able to score at will against the league`s second-best defense.
Even after dropping Game 1 against the New York Knicks, Boston remains a strong favorite to advance to the conference finals. The Celtics dominated the Knicks in a regular-season sweep and likely would have won Game 1 convincingly if not for extremely poor shooting luck. According to GeniusIQ tracking, the Celtics underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage – based on factors like shot location and defender distance – by 15% in Game 1, their worst mark all season. Had Boston`s shooters performed at their regular-season level, they would have scored approximately 30 more points in Game 1.
Put simply, the Celtics` shooting is bound to improve. When it does, they will take another crucial step toward becoming the first team since the Kevin Durant-era Warriors to successfully defend their title.
Denver Nuggets
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 36.4%
- To reach NBA Finals: 19.7%
- To win 2025 title: 9.2%
Nikola Jokic is widely considered the best player globally, and the formula that secured the Nuggets` 2023 championship remains effective, as demonstrated by his historic 40-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist effort in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. However, Jokic cannot win alone, and for Denver to claim their second title in three years, his supporting cast must perform at a high level. So far, they have largely delivered: Aaron Gordon has hit multiple game-winning shots, and Jamal Murray`s efficient 43-point outburst in Game 5 of the first round stands as the top single-game performance by any player this postseason.
Denver is as potent as ever when their best players are on the floor. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll is still virtually unstoppable, generating an outstanding 1.35 points per play in the playoffs, according to GeniusIQ. The Nuggets` starting lineup boasts a +12.9 net rating in the postseason, while a lineup featuring Russell Westbrook instead of Michael Porter Jr. has an even better +23.8 rating.
As the playoffs progress, the Nuggets may face challenges with player fatigue. The team utilizes a relatively short rotation and endured a tough seven-game series against the Clippers before facing the formidable Thunder.
Nevertheless, this challenge hasn`t slowed down the 2023 champions yet. In Game 1 against the Thunder, the Nuggets scored 71 points in the second half alone. In their last regular-season meeting in March, Jokic and Murray combined for 69 points, and the Nuggets shot an exceptional 56% from three-point range (18-for-32). While they won`t maintain that shooting pace every night, they clearly possess the ability to overwhelm even the league`s best defenses.
If Denver can overcome Oklahoma City, they have the capability to defeat any remaining opponent. It would also be advantageous for them if the Warriors could defeat the Timberwolves in the other Western Conference series, as Minnesota held a 4-0 record against Denver in the regular season after winning Game 7 on the Nuggets` home floor last spring.
New York Knicks
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 53.4%
- To reach NBA Finals: 23.2%
- To win 2025 title: 7.7%
It is difficult to envision the Knicks breaking through for their first championship since 1973, even after their improbable comeback victory in Boston in Game 1. The Celtics likely would have won Game 1 comfortably without significant shooting misfortune and had swept the regular-season series. Furthermore, New York struggled to overcome the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round. Their combined margin of victory across their four first-round wins was only 17 points, far less dominant than Cleveland (122), Boston (66), or Indiana (54).
However, New York`s playoff performance so far, powered by Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, offers insight into how they could grind their way to a title through winning close games. More heroic clutch performances from Brunson and others would pave one path to a Knicks championship, as would some external good fortune. After all, New York`s playoff run was cut short last year due to extensive injuries. Why couldn`t the scenario reverse this postseason?
New York remains the underdog against Boston, but Tatum and Jrue Holiday have missed games this postseason, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee issue, and Kristaps Porzingis left Game 1 early due to illness. While the Celtics possess more depth and talent, this matchup would become significantly more even if Boston were missing a star and others were hampered by injuries.
And if the Knicks could manage to sneak past a potentially injury-affected Celtics squad while Indiana simultaneously upset Cleveland, then New York would secure home-court advantage in the conference finals and have a legitimate opportunity to end their 52-year title drought.
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 22.1%
- To reach NBA Finals: 12.7%
- To win 2025 title: 5.5%
What seemed like a promising season just days ago has quickly turned precarious for Cleveland, as injuries and the surging Pacers challenge the East`s top seed. Darius Garland missed the first two games against Indiana, Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter missed Game 2, and Tyrese Haliburton hit a game-winning three-pointer to put the Cavaliers in a 2-0 series deficit.
So, how can Cleveland recover and get back on track for a title run? The most critical step is regaining health. The short-handed Cavaliers led for most of Game 2, fueled by Donovan Mitchell`s 48 points, but this is not a sustainable strategy, especially given how fatigued Mitchell and Jarrett Allen appeared by the game`s end. Cleveland desperately needs Mobley`s size, Garland`s playmaking, and Hunter`s shooting, in addition to the depth they provide, to have a realistic chance of mounting a comeback.
Other factors could still favor Cleveland. The Cavaliers are likely to see their shooting percentages improve; they ranked second in the regular season at 38% from three and made 44% in their first-round sweep of Miami, but have dropped to 26% through two games against the Pacers. Conversely, the Pacers` unsustainable 47% three-point shooting in the series is almost certain to decline.
If their injured stars return – an extra day off before Game 3 should help – and shooting luck normalizes, Cleveland actually has a possibility of overcoming this deficit, even with the next two games in Indiana. It will be a difficult challenge, but five previous teams have won a playoff series after losing the first two games at home, most recently the 2020-21 LA Clippers against Dallas.
Mapping out the rest of the Cavaliers` playoff journey beyond the conference semifinals feels overly optimistic at this stage. However, a fully healthy Cleveland squad won 64 games with the league`s second-best point differential this season. That team possesses the capability to win it all, provided they can first get past Indiana. But time is running short.
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 21.2%
- To reach NBA Finals: 3.8%
- To win 2025 title: 1.2%
The Timberwolves entered the playoffs strong, finishing the regular season with a 17-4 record over their final 21 games, then comfortably upsetting the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Minnesota`s suffocating defense limited a team featuring two of the NBA`s all-time great offensive players – LeBron James and Luka Doncic – to under 100 points in three of their five games.
With Anthony Edwards ascending to superstardom, Julius Randle playing arguably the best playoff basketball of his career, Jaden McDaniels embodying the ideal 3-and-D player, and starting-caliber talent like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker coming off the bench, Minnesota benefits from strong shooting and size across its roster.
Although they lost Game 1 to a Golden State squad mostly without Stephen Curry, the odds would dramatically shift in Minnesota`s favor if the league`s all-time leading three-point shooter were sidelined for multiple games or the entire series.
However, the Timberwolves themselves need to shoot better from long range to advance further. They defeated the Lakers despite shooting just 32% from distance as a team, a drop from their 38% regular-season mark (fourth in the NBA). In Game 1 against Golden State, Minnesota started 0-for-16 from deep and made only five total.
Specifically, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley have collectively struggled, shooting a dismal 21% from three-point range (17-for-82) this postseason. At least one of them must start hitting open looks to provide Edwards with adequate backcourt support in crucial moments.
It would also benefit Minnesota if Nikola Jokic could manage an upset against the Thunder, as Minnesota has had success against the Nuggets over the past year. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves are confident and possess the athleticism and defensive prowess to make any opponent`s series a difficult one.
Last season, the Timberwolves took a significant step forward by reaching the conference finals before running out of gas. This year, they may have learned how to better manage their energy throughout the playoffs. That prospect is unsettling for any team potentially standing in their path.
