The opening days of the NBA`s conference semifinals presented an unprecedented scenario. For the first time in league history, all four Game 1s were won by the visiting teams. This trend continued in the Eastern Conference, where road teams also claimed victory in both Game 2 matchups.
This unexpected outcome was particularly surprising given the dominant regular seasons enjoyed by the East`s top two teams. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics each secured over 60 wins, averaging 12 more victories than their lower-seeded opponents, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, respectively.
As the Eastern Conference series take a break before resuming on Friday – with Indiana and New York holding 2-0 leads heading into Games 3 and 4 at home – it`s worth examining what has gone wrong for the favored teams and what their struggles reveal about the chances of Boston and Cleveland mounting comebacks to reach an East Finals showdown that seemed almost guaranteed just a week ago.
Cavs-Pacers: Where `Spida` Needs Immediate Assistance
Similar to three of the four road wins in Game 1 across the league, Indiana`s victory was marked by exceptionally accurate 3-point shooting. The Pacers hit 19 of 36 attempts from beyond the arc (53%), while the Cavaliers – who finished second in 3-point percentage during the regular season – struggled, making just 9 of 38 shots (24%).
Unlike some other series, rust wasn`t a clear factor here, as Indiana finished its five-game series against the Milwaukee Bucks only one day after Cleveland swept the Miami Heat.
The disparity in shooting lessened somewhat in Game 2, with the Pacers shooting 39% and the Cavaliers 28% from deep. Despite missing starter Darius Garland, the newly crowned Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, and key reserve De`Andre Hunter, Cleveland seemed poised to tie the series. They held a 17-point lead late in the third quarter and were still up by seven before the situation unraveled. The final minute saw a pair of Cavaliers turnovers and two crucial Indiana offensive rebounds off missed free throws, setting the stage for Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning plays.
However, Indiana`s position might not be as secure as it appears. Since 2021, among the four higher-seeded teams that fell behind 2-0 at home, three managed to force a Game 7. Although, two of those – the Celtics in the 2023 conference finals and the Denver Nuggets last year against the Minnesota Timberwolves – ultimately lost the decisive Game 7 at home.
Naturally, Cleveland`s current dilemma makes Friday`s Game 3 a must-win, putting the focus squarely on the Cavaliers` injury situation. Hunter and Mobley sustained their injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while Garland has been out for the past four games, including the end of the first round.
If Donovan Mitchell delivers a performance as heroic as his effort for the first 47 minutes of Game 2, Cleveland is certainly capable of winning without the injured players. But Mobley`s potential return is especially critical. Although Indiana`s inside scoring cooled off on Tuesday, they still scored 50 points in the paint – six more than Cleveland had allowed in any other playoff game, with 26 of those points coming in the fourth quarter.
Hunter`s absence is particularly ill-timed as he would be the logical player to step into the lineup in Mobley`s place. Without Hunter, the Cavaliers had only two players taller than 6-foot-5: starting center Jarrett Allen and fill-in power forward Dean Wade. This left Cleveland`s second unit significantly undersized.
The Cavaliers have demonstrated they can win without Garland, but his return would significantly reduce Mitchell`s offensive burden. According to Stathead.com`s database via the `Dunc`d On Basketball` podcast, Mitchell`s Game 2 performance was only the sixth in playoff history with a usage rate of at least half his team`s possessions and at least 20 shot attempts. This means that, on average, every other Cleveland possession with Mitchell on the court ended with him shooting, committing a turnover, or going to the free throw line. Given this immense responsibility, it`s understandable that Mitchell appeared fatigued late in the game.
From a matchup perspective, Indiana`s two opening wins don`t necessarily suggest they would be favored over a fully healthy Cavaliers team on a neutral court. However, Indiana needs to win only two of the remaining five games, three of which will be played at home. It remains uncertain how quickly Cleveland will regain health. As a result, the Pacers are now the clear favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Celtics-Knicks: Where the 3-Pointer Fails the Favorites
As previously noted, the Celtics have some experience with this challenging situation, having fallen behind 3-0 to the Miami Heat in 2023 before mounting a comeback to force Game 7, only to lose at home. In fact, this marks the fourth time an Al Horford-era Celtics team has started a series down 2-0 at home. This happened against both the Chicago Bulls (a series they eventually won) and the Cavaliers (a five-game loss as underdogs) back in 2017.
In some ways, this isn`t entirely surprising. Over the past four playoff runs, including their loss in the 2022 Finals and last season`s championship run, Boston has performed dramatically better away from TD Garden. They hold a 22-9 (.710) record in road playoff games during this span, securing at least one road win in all 12 series played. No other team has a road playoff record more than three games above .500 in this same period.
Conversely, Boston`s home record in the past four playoffs is just 23-16. Only the Heat (11) have recorded double-digit home losses in this timeframe, though it`s worth noting the Celtics have played significantly more playoff games than any other team over the last four years.
Given this context, Boston`s Game 1 home loss to a team they swept 4-0 in a dominant regular-season series initially seemed like little cause for concern. The fact that they even managed to force overtime despite missing a playoff-record 45 three-pointers could be seen as impressive.
Defying expectations for a bounce-back performance, the poor outside shooting continued into Game 2. Boston attempted significantly fewer 3-pointers (40 out of 94 total shots, compared to 60 of 97 in Game 1) but again connected at a mere 25% clip. Over the past six years, the Celtics are only the second team to shoot 25% or worse from three-point range in the first two games of a playoff series, the other being the 2021 Atlanta Hawks in their East Finals loss to the Bucks.
To some extent, the strong focus on Boston`s missed 3-pointers might be slightly exaggerated, likely because they are tracked separately in the box score. The Celtics actually shot even worse (8 of 33, 24%) on 2-point attempts taken outside the restricted area – without even receiving the benefit of the extra point for the shots they *did* make.
Several of these misses came from Jayson Tatum, who was 0-of-5 on non-paint 2-pointers. Tatum and Jaylen Brown missed all five of their attempted non-paint 2s in the fourth quarter as Boston seemed to resort to individual heroic efforts while New York was cutting into their lead. According to GeniusIQ tracking, only eight of the Celtics` 24 shots in the final period were considered assisted opportunities.
Despite Boston`s perceived struggles in close games, they actually boasted the NBA`s third-best offensive rating in clutch situations this season (defined as games within five points in the final five minutes or in overtime). Furthermore, Boston`s impressive plus-47 net rating in the clutch during their 2024 championship run led all teams.
Because the Celtics are largely healthy – with the exception of center Kristaps Porzingis dealing with an ongoing illness – and managed to control the first three quarters of both games with a combined plus-21 differential in that span, they are arguably in as favorable a position as a team possibly can be while trailing 2-0 at home. Remarkably, Boston still holds the best odds to win the Eastern Conference according to ESPN BET.
Nevertheless, the defending champions head to New York lacking momentum and with minimal room for error.
