NBA Playoffs 2025: Historic Comeback Bid – Can Celtics or Warriors Rally from 3-1?

The second round of the NBA playoffs has delivered significant drama. Unexpected road wins, thrilling late-game comebacks, and overtime battles have filled the air. However, the excitement has been tempered by unfortunate injuries to some of the league`s top players.

The Indiana Pacers, seeded fifth, have already secured their spot in the conference finals. Three other teams are set to join them soon.

As the playoffs continue with crucial elimination games for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, let`s analyze the main developments and insights from this round so far, including which recent champion faces a potentially easier path forward.

Celtics or Warriors: Which Team is More Likely to Overcome a 3-1 Deficit?

At this stage of the playoffs, the Celtics and Warriors find themselves in similar precarious positions. Both teams harbored championship aspirations but are now just one loss away from being eliminated. Compounding their challenges, both are dealing with injuries to their leading scorers.

This raises the question: Which team has a better probability of becoming the 14th team in NBA history (and the first since the 2020 Denver Nuggets) to successfully rally from a 3-1 series deficit?

Boston`s hopes of defending their title took a severe hit when Jayson Tatum underwent surgery for a torn Achilles tendon sustained in a recent loss.

Golden State`s argument for a potential comeback rests partly on the possibility of Stephen Curry returning from a strained hamstring during this round. However, for this scenario to play out, the Warriors would first need to win a Game 5 on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves without him to force a Game 6. Then, they would rely on Curry`s boost in Games 6 and 7. Curry`s return is uncertain, as hamstring injuries can be tricky and his dynamic playing style, involving constant movement and sharp cuts, risks further damage if he comes back too soon.

Without Curry, the Warriors simply lack sufficient offensive firepower. During the regular season, their offensive rating with Curry off the court was a mere 107.0, ranking in the bottom 11th percentile league-wide according to Cleaning the Glass. This performance has worsened in the playoffs, showing a dismal 101.9 offensive rating (1st percentile) when Curry is not playing, despite Jimmy Butler III`s presence.

The Celtics possess more collective talent beyond Tatum. Earlier in the season, they maintained a strong plus-7.8 net rating even without their star, compared to plus-9.8 with him. This performance gap has widened in the playoffs due to other key injuries affecting Boston`s core players, increasing the team`s reliance on Tatum`s individual brilliance. Sam Hauser has been out since injuring his ankle in Game 1, and both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are playing through injuries.

These health limitations will hinder any comeback attempts, but the Celtics` potential ceiling without Tatum is still considered higher than the Warriors` without Curry. Furthermore, Boston would host a potential Game 7 at home, while Golden State would face the challenge of winning on the road.

The Timberwolves have demonstrated dominance throughout much of this postseason, often outperforming the older Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. In contrast, the Knicks have frequently relied on close games, with six of their seven playoff wins decided in clutch time. The Knicks have been outscored in the first three quarters of their playoff run but hold a significant plus-44 advantage in the fourth quarter and won their only overtime contest. This extreme success in clutch situations may not be sustainable, potentially offering the Celtics an opportunity to steal some wins, even without their primary closer.

Statistical prediction models generally agree that the Celtics have a slightly better chance of mounting a comeback. ESPN`s Basketball Power Index currently gives the Celtics a 7% probability of advancing to the conference finals, compared to 5% for the Warriors.

The Resurgence of Zone Defenses

Zone defenses are not typically a staple in the NBA. According to GeniusIQ, teams primarily used man defense (97%) during the regular season. The Miami Heat were an exception, employing a zone defense about 12% of the time.

However, this spring, several teams facing adversity have increasingly utilized zone schemes. The frequency of zone defense across the league is the highest recorded for any postseason.

The Denver Nuggets provide a notable example. Under former coach Michael Malone, Denver rarely used zone for more than five possessions in any playoff game, per GeniusIQ. But with David Adelman leading the team after Malone`s unexpected departure in April, the Nuggets have significantly increased their zone usage against the Thunder. This strategy escalated from 10 zone possessions in Game 1 to 13 in Game 2, 21 in Game 3, and a remarkable 55 in Game 4. The latter figure represents the second-highest zone possession count for any playoff team in the tracking era (since 2013-14), trailing only the Heat`s 58 possessions in Game 2 of the 2020 Finals.

This defensive shift has largely proven effective. Oklahoma City has managed just 1.08 points per possession against the Nuggets` zone, which helps explain the Thunder`s scoring difficulties despite ranking third in offensive rating during the regular season.

Cleveland also adopted the zone approach in this round. They did not use it at all in their first-round sweep of the Heat, as it wasn`t necessary. But finding themselves down 0-2 against the Pacers, they implemented a swarming 3-2 zone with Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley at the top. This yielded positive results, limiting Indiana to a mere 0.70 points per zone possession in their Game 3 victory.

Other teams, including the Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, and Warriors, have also used zone defense in stretches. Overall this postseason, zones have yielded a defensive rating of 106, better than the 111 rating for man defenses in the half court. Brief periods of zone defense have served as an effective strategic change of pace for teams facing offensive disadvantages.

However, zone defenses are not without flaws. Just last year, zones were less effective than man defenses in the playoffs, allowing 117 points per 100 possessions. This week, the Pacers demonstrated how to exploit them.

Elite offenses like Indiana`s can find and exploit weaknesses in any zone setup. When the Cavaliers attempted to replicate their Game 3 zone success in Game 4, the Pacers were prepared. They were exceptionally efficient against Cleveland`s zone, scoring 1.92 points per possession – comparable to an uncontested layup nearly every time down the court – leading the Cavaliers to quickly abandon the strategy. So far, no defense has managed to significantly slow the Pacers` potent offense.

Jonathan Kuminga`s Playoff Performance Boosting His Market Value

Jonathan Kuminga, the No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft, is approaching restricted free agency this summer, meaning Golden State can match any offer he receives. Until recently, it appeared he might have lost coach Steve Kerr`s confidence, potentially impacting his value on the free-agent market.

Kuminga did not play in the Warriors` critical games to end the regular season, including the play-in game. In the first round against the Rockets, he was sidelined for four out of seven games and shot poorly (30%) when he did play.

However, Stephen Curry`s hamstring injury forced Kerr to turn to Kuminga for offensive help. The 22-year-old forward has capitalized on this renewed opportunity, even as his team struggles. Over the last three games against a strong Minnesota defense, Kuminga has averaged 23.7 points on 60% shooting and drawn seven free throws per game.

He has emerged as Golden State`s most reliable offensive option in this series, strongly suggesting he warrants an expanded role next season. Whether he remains with the Warriors or signs with another team seeking upside, his recent play indicates a significant contract is likely awaiting him.

Ty Jerome`s Playoff Struggles May Hurt His Free Agency Value

On the flip side, Ty Jerome of Cleveland, who enjoyed a breakout season for the East`s top seed, may have negatively impacted his free agency prospects. Jerome averaged 12.5 points in under 20 minutes per game, shot 44% from three, and finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting. He continued this strong performance against the Heat in the first round, averaging 16.3 points and shooting 50% from three.

Jerome`s timing for this breakout seemed ideal, as he is set to become an unrestricted free agent. Last year, a similar combo guard sixth man, Malik Monk, signed a four-year, $78 million contract to stay with the Sacramento Kings. While Jerome might have hoped for a comparable deal, that possibility appears much less likely after his difficulties against the Pacers.

With Darius Garland injured, Jerome scored 21 points on 20 shots in Game 1 but then shot just 1-for-14 in Game 2 and was the defender beaten on Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning shot. He had another poor shooting start (1-for-8) in Game 3, after which coach Kenny Atkinson significantly reduced his minutes to just 13, his lowest of the postseason, as Sam Merrill moved ahead of him in the rotation. By Game 5, Jerome did not play until the second half.

Facing potential financial constraints next season as a projected second apron team, the Cavaliers may now decide that Jerome is not worth retaining if he cannot contribute effectively in crucial playoff games. Furthermore, his struggles under playoff pressure could deter other potential suitors who might have otherwise been interested in seeing what he could do with more offensive responsibility.

OKC`s Strategic Use of Alex Caruso is Paying Dividends

Let`s conclude with a closer look at one of the NBA`s premier role players. Alex Caruso is not merely an elite defender compared to his peers; he can arguably be considered one of the best defenders of the 21st century.

According to xRAPM, an advanced metric measuring player impact based on various factors including individual stats and teammates, the most valuable defenders in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97) include Kevin Garnett, Dikembe Mutombo, Caruso, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan, and Ben Wallace, listed in order. Caruso is in distinguished company, surrounded by Defensive Player of the Year winners. He and Tony Allen are the only guards among the top 25.

The Thunder understood Caruso`s value when they acquired him last summer. While he doesn`t produce the same scoring numbers as Josh Giddey, whom he was traded for, Caruso is a much better fit as a crucial defensive option in the playoffs.

Caruso`s primary challenge has been a history of injuries throughout his career, often due to his high-effort, physical style of play. Recognizing this, the Thunder implemented a personalized load management plan for him this season, resulting in his fewest minutes played since 2018-19. He was often given rest days, as he wasn`t subject to the league`s player participation policy.

His season high in minutes was 31 in a narrow victory in March; it was his only regular-season game exceeding 27 minutes. In contrast, Caruso played over 27 minutes in 47 games with the Chicago Bulls just last year.

Coach Mark Daigneault has continued to manage Caruso`s minutes cautiously in the playoffs. With a finite number of high-effort plays in his body, there`s wisdom in preserving him for critical moments rather than using him extensively in games the Thunder are likely to win comfortably.

In Game 1 against Memphis, Caruso had a plus-30 rating in just 12 first-half minutes without even attempting a shot. The Thunder were winning convincingly, so Caruso did not play after halftime. Similarly, in their dominant Game 2 win over the Nuggets, Caruso played 10 minutes in the first half before sitting the rest of the game.

However, in close contests, Caruso appears fresh, plays extended minutes, and excels. He forced several crucial turnovers in the Thunder`s significant comeback win in Memphis in Game 3. He recorded 20 points, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks in Game 1 against the Nuggets. And he helped stabilize the Thunder on both offense and defense in a crucial must-win Game 4 in Denver.

The Thunder closed that Game 4 with a lineup featuring Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein – their starting five with Caruso replacing Luguentz Dort. This specific lineup had not played together for a single minute during the regular season, but it might represent Coach Daigneault`s most effective unit.

Based on his performance, Caruso arguably deserves an even greater role going forward. According to box plus-minus data available before Tuesday`s games, Caruso ranked as the second-most valuable player per minute in the playoffs this year, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Thunder posted a remarkable plus-22.7 net rating with him on the court. (Notably, the top three players in playoff net rating were OKC`s Cason Wallace, Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins, highlighting the significant impact of their bench contributors.)