NBA Playoff Round 1: League Insiders Analyze the Games

The NBA postseason is already off to an exciting start. Five out of the eight first-round matchups have split the first two games, showcasing strong performances from both experienced playoff veterans, including former champions Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard, and emerging young talents like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham.

This sets the stage for a compelling second weekend of playoff action, with games scheduled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. All eight series will be in play, and some teams could face elimination if they don`t secure a victory.

Here is an overview of the current state of each first-round series and what observers are watching as teams compete for a spot in the conference semifinals.

Pacers vs. Bucks: How Much More Can Giannis Contribute?

No. 4 Indiana leads No. 5 Milwaukee, 2-0

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been exceptional in the first two games of this series, with remarkable statistics: averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 65%. This level of production is truly extraordinary.

Yet, despite Antetokounmpo`s outstanding 38 minutes on the court so far, the Milwaukee Bucks have been outscored by 29 points during that time. As the series moves to Milwaukee for Game 3 on Friday, there is little confidence that the team can recover.

When asked about Milwaukee`s chances, one NBA executive was direct: “I honestly don`t see it… Giannis has been incredible, and they still haven`t been competitive.”

In their Game 2 loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Bucks couldn`t build on Antetokounmpo`s stellar play or Bobby Portis` efficient 28 points off the bench. Damian Lillard returned emotionally after missing the previous month due to a health issue, but it wasn`t enough for Milwaukee to do more than make a late push after trailing significantly for most of the game.

It seems difficult for the Bucks to either slow down the Pacers` offense effectively or match their scoring pace, especially with the current player rotations. This has led to discussions about potentially benching Kyle Kuzma, who has struggled in the first two games (including one where he played over 20 minutes without recording a single point, rebound, assist, steal, or block), in favor of a shooter like Gary Trent Jr. or AJ Green.

“Keeping Kuzma on the court without the ball isn`t effective,” a scout commented. “Either bring him off the bench to handle the ball when Giannis is resting and start someone like Green, or don`t play him at all.”

Knicks vs. Pistons: A Gritty Battle Continues

No. 3 New York leads No. 6 Detroit, 2-1

Following two consecutive second-round eliminations, the Knicks made significant offseason trades—acquiring Mikal Bridges for draft picks and trading Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (plus another pick) for Karl-Anthony Towns—aiming to reach the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000.

However, in their current series against the Detroit Pistons, it`s not entirely clear that the Knicks are guaranteed to advance past this round. “I`ve been questioning all season if [the Knicks] are truly a second-round caliber team, meaning they should comfortably win the first round,” one executive remarked.

This sentiment was expressed when the series was tied 1-1, before New York`s more balanced offensive performance in Thursday night`s Game 3 win. The Knicks seemed to make a deliberate adjustment after relying too heavily on Jalen Brunson in a Game 2 loss where Towns didn`t attempt a single shot in the fourth quarter.

“Jalen`s tendency to hunt for fouls and dominate the ball has started to hinder them,” a West scout observed. “There`s a limit to what you can achieve with that approach. It works for winning many regular-season games, but it`s a huge burden during playoff minutes when defenses have adapted and focused on him. KAT and [OG Anunoby] need to be more involved, which is difficult when [Brunson] controls the ball so much.”

It`s also challenging when the Pistons can deploy players with size and length against him, particularly second-year wing Ausar Thompson, who has defended Brunson effectively despite fouling out in Game 2. “I`m not sure Thompson even fully understands what he`s doing yet,” an East scout said with a chuckle, “but he`s a naturally gifted defender.”

Any Concerns for the Cavaliers or Celtics?

No. 1 Cleveland leads No. 8 Miami, 2-0
No. 2 Boston leads No. 7 Orlando, 2-0

The series involving the top two seeds in the East have unfolded as anticipated. For the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic series, the main question mark is the health of Jayson Tatum. He missed a playoff game for the first time ever due to a bone bruise in his shooting wrist in Game 2 and is likely to miss Game 3 as well, being listed as doubtful.

However, the Celtics can rely on Jaylen Brown, who recently dealt with his own knee bone bruise, especially after his dominant 36-point performance on efficient shooting helped secure Game 2. “Orlando isn`t good enough,” a scout commented. “They simply need more offensive firepower and shooting.”

While the Miami Heat have competed hard in Games 1 and 2, the Cleveland Cavaliers` superior talent across the roster has proven too much to overcome. Miami requires strong performances from all three of their key players to stand a chance, but Bam Adebayo struggled in Game 2, and Andrew Wiggins wasn`t on the court in the fourth quarter.

Despite scoring 33 points in Game 2, Tyler Herro has been consistently targeted by the Cavaliers` defenders, making him an easy mark for Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Ty Jerome to attack repeatedly. “Cleveland is clearly the superior team,” a scout stated. “Their depth is impressive, [Evan] Mobley is fantastic… Their depth will overwhelm Miami. Credit the Heat, they`ve shown fight.”

“But they lack sufficient offensive punch. Too many players are hesitant to shoot.”

Nuggets vs. Clippers: Is Peak Kawhi Back?

No. 4 LA leads No. 5 Denver, 2-1

From conversations with various people over the past few days, two common sentiments emerged regarding the Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers series: It`s an incredibly exciting series to watch, and Kawhi Leonard remains exceptionally good.

“The Clippers-Nuggets series has met all expectations,” an Eastern Conference executive shared. “And it reinforces why people believe in Kawhi. When he`s healthy, he is truly, truly special.”

The “health” aspect is, of course, the concern, as Leonard has faced numerous injury setbacks during his time with the Clippers, including in previous playoff runs. But the version of Leonard seen this season has been on par with his best form, including when he led the Toronto Raptors to the 2019 NBA championship. This makes the Clippers a highly dangerous team in the current playoffs.

Through three games, the Clippers have appeared to be the better team, highlighted by their convincing Game 3 victory over Denver in the first-ever playoff game held at the Intuit Dome. “The longer that series goes, the more it favors Denver,” a scout noted, referring to the potential for Leonard to get injured. “But those games have been sensational.”

Denver, however, is also dealing with injury issues. The Nuggets are not a deep squad and have had key players like Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon miss time during the season, and now Michael Porter Jr.`s shoulder issue could affect his availability. “Denver looks physically worn down,” the executive commented. “They are a thin team, and their main contributors have been sidelined.”

Insiders generally agree that this series has been the most compelling matchup in the early stages of the playoffs and feels far more intense than a typical first-round contest. “Those teams are going to exhaust each other just to survive Round 1,” a West executive stated.

Rockets vs. Warriors: Will Butler`s Injury Status Decide the Series?

No. 2 Houston tied with No. 7 Golden State, 1-1

As this series moves to San Francisco for Saturday`s Game 3 after the Houston Rockets tied it on Wednesday, the primary focus is on the availability of Jimmy Butler III for the Golden State Warriors. He suffered a pelvic contusion from a hard fall in the first half of Game 2.

Reports indicate that Butler has a deep glute muscle contusion, and his participation in Game 3 is seriously questionable. “I expected Houston to rebound and thought they`d dominate [the Warriors] once Jimmy went out,” a West scout admitted. “But they just don`t have enough scoring power. They won`t build a significant lead on anyone.”

This series, as noted by TNT analyst Stan Van Gundy, feels reminiscent of the 1990s era rather than today`s faster, spread-out game. Every possession is a struggle for contested space, marked by physical play and ongoing verbal exchanges between players like Draymond Green and Dillon Brooks or Fred VanVleet.

Golden State`s Game 1 win suggested that if their key players are performing well and Butler`s injury isn`t severe, the Warriors possess an offensive gear that Houston, with many players making their playoff debut, might not be able to match. “They play with effort and defend hard,” an executive said, “but their offense isn`t ready.”

A significant advantage for the Warriors currently is the three-day gap between Games 2 and 3, potentially giving Butler enough time to recover and help Golden State maintain home-court advantage in the series.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves: A High-Profile Yet Uncertain Series

No. 3 Los Angeles tied with No. 6 Minnesota, 1-1

This series has lived up to its billing as one of the most interesting first-round matchups to analyze. The Minnesota Timberwolves started strong against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1, but the Lakers reversed roles in Game 2. Consequently, neither team has established a clear advantage heading into Game 3 on Friday.

The first two games in particular highlighted the inconsistency of the Timberwolves. In Game 1, Anthony Edwards shot poorly but played a disciplined game, dishing out nine assists with only one turnover, helping guide Minnesota to a convincing win. In Game 2, Edwards had no assists, and the team managed only 14 total (well below their season average of 26.1), looking lethargic for almost the entire game. “Minnesota might be the most complete team in the West outside of Oklahoma City,” an NBA scout commented, “but they lack consistency.”

“They are young, athletic, dynamic, with good positional flexibility… but I find them frustrating, and their offense is a problem even though it shouldn`t be.”

The Lakers also faced their own difficulties in the opening games. Their defensive effort and intensity were insufficient in Game 1, though they improved in Game 2. While LeBron James contributed to that defensive improvement, he and Austin Reaves haven`t performed at their regular-season level, and starting Jaxson Hayes at center has been ineffective. However, the Lakers undeniably have the best player in the series in Luka Doncic, even if he sometimes got sidetracked trying to exploit Timberwolves big man Rudy Gobert for highlights in the second half of Game 2. As long as Doncic continues to play as he did in the first two games, averaging 34 points and making 19 out of 20 free throws, the Lakers feel confident about their prospects.

“The Lakers possess the series` best player,” an NBA executive noted. “In a closely contested series like this, that is often the deciding factor.”

Thunder vs. Grizzlies: A Collapse Likely Ends the Series

No. 1 OKC leads No. 8 Memphis, 3-0

It`s been an impressive beginning for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have easily won the first three games, even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander starting the series slowly (shooting 33.3% against the Memphis Grizzlies through the first two games after finishing the regular season near 52%). “I`m feeling good about my prediction of OKC winning against the field,” a West executive stated.

Through two games, the Thunder looked like a perfectly functioning unit. Oklahoma City nearly broke an NBA playoff record with their 51-point rout of the Grizzlies in Game 1, followed by another comfortable win in Game 2. As the series moved to Memphis for Game 3, it was widely expected to be over soon.

However, Game 3 unfolded in a truly bizarre manner over 48 minutes. The first half was dominated by Memphis, with Scotty Pippen Jr. hitting more three-pointers himself (five) than the Thunder made as a team (four) in the entire half, helping Memphis build a 26-point halftime lead. But when Ja Morant took a bad fall late in the first half, Memphis fell apart. The Grizzlies scored only 31 points after halftime, while the Thunder completely turned the game around, achieving an NBA-record comeback victory. It was difficult to watch as the Grizzlies completely collapsed, failing to score any points in the final 4:51 of the game.

“That is a devastating loss,” one executive commented. “I feel for the Grizzlies,” another added. “That one truly hurts.”

That fourth quarter highlighted the impact of Alex Caruso, the defensive specialist acquired in the trade for Josh Giddey last summer—a deal in which the Chicago Bulls remarkably did not receive any draft picks. In that crucial fourth quarter, Caruso recorded three steals, a block, and five points, helping swing the game in Oklahoma City`s favor.

Now, the only question is whether the Grizzlies can force the series back to Oklahoma City for a fifth game. If Memphis cannot, it will send them into an offseason filled with questions about the team`s future, following the late-season collapse, the dismissal of coach Taylor Jenkins, and the way this series concluded.