As the current NBA season nears its end, it`s time to reflect on our preseason breakout player predictions and look ahead to potential stars for the 2025-26 season. We`ll review our hits and misses from this year and, with expert insights, identify five players who could make significant strides next season.
Looking Back at Breakout Successes
Evan Mobley
Cleveland Cavaliers, Center
Expectations were high for Mobley to become a central offensive player under coach Kenny Atkinson, and he delivered. Cleveland`s offense became highly efficient, and Mobley emerged as a key player, earning an All-Star selection. He significantly increased his scoring and three-point attempts while maintaining his defensive prowess.
Key Stat: Mobley achieved career highs in usage rate, true shooting percentage, and net rating, demonstrating his crucial role in Cleveland`s success. His growth allowed Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to thrive as well.
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder, Forward/Guard
Williams exceeded breakout expectations, becoming an All-Star. He took on a larger on-ball role and demonstrated versatility, contributing defensively and offensively for the Thunder, who hold the league`s best record.
Key Stat: Despite a slightly decreased efficiency due to a heavier workload, Williams set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He`s become a crucial two-way player for the Thunder.
Jalen Green
Houston Rockets, Guard
Green has become the leading scorer for a much-improved Rockets team. While his raw stats haven`t dramatically increased, his consistency and efficiency within a winning context are noteworthy. He`s showing progress in decision-making and playing effectively both with and without the ball.
Key Stat: Green improved his efficiency in pick-and-roll situations and spot-up shooting, indicating growth in his offensive game and adaptability within the team`s structure.
Reflecting on Missed Predictions
Franz Wagner
Orlando Magic, Forward
Wagner`s potential breakout was hampered by an injury that caused him to miss significant time. Although effective when playing and increasing his scoring average, the injury disrupted his season and impacted his overall breakout trajectory. A full breakout is still anticipated.
Key Stat: Wagner`s three-point shooting percentage remained around 30% despite increased attempts, suggesting an area for potential improvement in his continued development.
Jalen Johnson
Atlanta Hawks, Forward
Johnson`s season was also cut short by a significant injury. Before the injury, he was performing at a breakout level, achieving career highs in multiple statistical categories and becoming a key player for Atlanta. Health concerns remain a factor in his development into a true star.
Key Stat: Johnson`s high usage, assist, and rebound rates placed him in an elite group of NBA players, highlighting his all-around impact when healthy.
Brandin Podziemski
Golden State Warriors, Guard
While Podziemski received consistent playing time and even started games, his efficiency decreased. Despite being part of Golden State`s future plans, he hasn`t yet made the anticipated leap, facing shooting struggles and adapting to the NBA game.
Key Stat: Podziemski`s three-point percentage declined, and his overall free throw attempt rate remains low, indicating areas for improvement in his offensive game and ability to create scoring opportunities.
Way-Too-Early Breakout Picks for 2025-26
Looking ahead to the 2025-26 season, here are five young players with breakout potential, according to expert analysis:
Toumani Camara
Portland Trail Blazers, Forward
Camara is already an elite defender and developing into a well-rounded player. His defensive abilities are exceptional, and he contributes as a scorer and rebounder. His defensive anticipation and charge-taking ability are standout qualities.
Key Stat: Camara leads the NBA in charges taken, showcasing his defensive anticipation and impact. He is a significant reason for Portland`s improved defense.
Amen Thompson
Houston Rockets, Forward
Thompson`s game is evolving with more purpose and understanding. He`s a defensive force and has demonstrated playmaking ability, including triple-doubles against top teams. While his perimeter shooting is still developing, his overall potential is very high.
Key Stat: The Rockets have maintained a winning record when Fred VanVleet is absent, with Thompson playing a key role. He has impressive stats when starting, highlighting his growing importance to the team.
Dyson Daniels
Atlanta Hawks, Guard
Daniels has been impressive defensively and is showing offensive growth. His ability to recover defensively is notable, and his offensive game is improving, particularly his shooting efficiency since the All-Star break. Learning alongside Trae Young should further enhance his development.
Key Stat: Daniels leads the league by a significant margin in deflections and has recorded the most steals in a single season in over a decade, underscoring his defensive impact.
Jaden Ivey
Detroit Pistons, Guard
Despite a season-ending injury, Ivey showed significant improvement, particularly in three-point shooting and true shooting percentage. His improved accuracy and clutch performances offer optimism for his future alongside Cade Cunningham.
Key Stat: Ivey demonstrated clutch performance improvements and better shooting percentages in critical moments, indicating growth in his overall game and confidence.
Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers, Guard
Grimes is currently showcasing high-scoring performances with the Sixers. While the team`s situation is uncertain, Grimes has shown his scoring potential, averaging nearly 29 points in March. These performances suggest he could be a valuable player, even in a smaller role.
Key Stat: Grimes` increased usage rate with the Sixers has led to significant scoring numbers. His ability to perform at a high level in a challenging team environment is noteworthy.
