The 2025 NBA play-in tournament begins on Tuesday with two exciting matchups: the Orlando Magic hosting the Atlanta Hawks, and the Golden State Warriors facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Orlando Magic, with a regular-season record of 41-41, are 5.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 219.5 points. The Atlanta Hawks closely followed them in the standings with a 40-42 record, and the season series between these teams was evenly split.
In the other game, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies both concluded the season with an identical 48-34 record. The Warriors are favored by 7.5 points with a total of 227.5. While Golden State won the season series 3-1, Memphis notably defeated them by a significant 51-point margin in December.
Here are recommended bets for Tuesday`s play-in games.
Top Bets for Tuesday`s NBA Play-in Games
Paolo Banchero Over 30.5 Points (-110)
Banchero has exceeded this point total in all three regular-season games against the Hawks. Atlanta`s defense ranks among the league`s worst against power forwards, and they lack a suitable defender to contain Banchero. He has scored over 30.5 points in 11 of his last 20 games when playing at least 34 minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-105)
The Orlando Magic boast the NBA`s top defensive rating over their last 10 games. Although Okongwu had a strong performance against Orlando on April 8th, he has stayed under this combined points and rebounds line in 10 of his past 20 games, including both previous matchups against the Magic this season. Orlando has consistently limited opposing centers in points and rebounds in six of their last ten games. Given Orlando`s slow tempo and strong defense, Tuesday`s game is not an ideal situation for Okongwu to excel.
Vince Williams Jr. Under 12.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Williams has remained under this combined line in seven of his last ten games, averaging just 18 minutes of play during this stretch. He surpassed it in the regular-season finale against Dallas, but many key Grizzlies players had limited minutes in that game. More significantly, Williams has gone under this number in nine out of 12 games played alongside Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. He now faces a Warriors team that ranks fourth in defensive rating over the past 10 games.
Zach Edey Over 11.5 Rebounds (-130)
Edey is performing well at the opportune moment for the Grizzlies, exceeding this rebound line in four of his last five games. He`s averaged 25.6 rebound chances in just over 30 minutes per game. The Warriors have struggled against centers throughout the season, allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game to the position. Six of the last eight centers they have faced have surpassed their rebound prop bets.
Game Projections and Injury Updates
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury information by Rotowire.com. Betting odds by ESPN BET.
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Hawks +5.5 (-115) | Magic -5.5 (-105)
Money line: Hawks +170 | Magic -200
Total: 219.5 (-105 Over, -115 Under)
BPI Projection: Magic by 4.9, 66% win probability, 213.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Trae Young (GTD – Achilles), Clint Capela (OUT – Hand), Larry Nance Jr. (OUT – Knee), Jalen Johnson (OFS – Shoulder), Kobe Bufkin (OFS – Shoulder)
Magic: Jalen Suggs (OFS – Knee), Moritz Wagner (OFS – Knee)
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET
Line: Grizzlies +7.5 (-115) | Warriors -7.5 (-105)
Money line: Grizzlies +250 | Warriors -315
Total: 227.5 (-115 Over, -105 Under)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 3.5, 62% win probability, 230.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke (OFS – Knee), Jaylen Wells (OFS – Wrist)
Warriors: None reported
