If the 2025 NBA offseason is anything like the trade deadline earlier this season, there will be no shortage of dramatic developments. In a single week leading up to February 6th, All-Stars Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler III, Zach LaVine, and De`Aaron Fox were all involved in trades. Now, the spotlight shifts to Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant, and several other high-profile players whose futures are currently uncertain.
The Bucks and Suns are two of the ten teams we`ll be keeping a close eye on this summer. This list also includes the 2024 NBA champions, the Boston Celtics, as these teams have the potential to reshape the league landscape during the offseason.
Boston Celtics
“The CBA rules have been public knowledge for years, and we understand the penalties associated with exceeding certain salary levels. We weigh these factors against our current position, and all other relevant aspects, before making decisions.”
— Brad Stevens, May 2025
Celtics President of Basketball Operations, Brad Stevens, is well aware of the team`s projected $500 million payroll and the roster limitations that come with being over the salary cap`s second apron.
However, unlike last season when winning an NBA championship justified the high expenses, Boston`s roster is now under scrutiny after their second-round playoff exit, a series where superstar Jayson Tatum suffered a torn Achilles.
The Celtics are $23 million above the second apron. Unless the Brooklyn Nets are willing to take on the $30.7 million expiring contract of center Kristaps Porzingis, there isn`t a single trade that can get them under the apron. Reducing salary will likely require multiple transactions.
Given that Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are under contract through at least the 2028-29 season, Boston faces the challenge of balancing cost reduction with their aspirations for another championship.
If the Celtics remain over the second apron, their roster restrictions will include:
- Inability to combine contracts in trades.
- Limitation to using only up to 100% of the traded player exception.
- Prohibition from sending out cash in trades.
- Inability to utilize a pre-existing trade exception.
- Inability to sign a waived player whose salary was $14.1 million or more.
Furthermore, Boston`s 2033 first-round draft pick will become frozen (their 2032 pick is already frozen) if they finish the 2025-26 season above the second apron.
Brooklyn Nets
“If you`re targeting max-level talent, they absolutely must be capable of fundamentally changing the trajectory of your team. It shouldn`t be about acquiring someone just to lock into a 6-7 seed spot. When we commit fully, it`s with the intention of competing at the highest level and contending for a title.”
— Sean Marks, April 2025
The Nets possess two key advantages this offseason that are unique: four first-round draft picks in June and over $40 million in cap space.
However, unlike the 2019 offseason when Durant and Kyrie Irving signed as free agents, the current roster isn`t built to contend for a championship, even with the addition of an All-NBA caliber player.
As a result, Brooklyn is a likely candidate to offer significant contracts to free agents (similar to how the Indiana Pacers signed Bruce Brown in 2023), absorb salary from other teams in exchange for draft picks, or target restricted free agents with offer sheets.
By league rules, Brooklyn cannot simply save most of its available cap space during the regular season. Teams are required to spend 90% of the salary cap by the first day of the regular season. Including its four first-round picks, Brooklyn`s current salary commitment is $79 million, meaning they need to spend an additional $60 million to meet the minimum spending requirement.
Denver Nuggets
“We definitely need to find a way to improve our depth. It seems like the teams with deeper rotations and longer benches are the ones winning, like Indiana, OKC, and Minnesota.”
— Nikola Jokic, May 2025
The comments from the three-time MVP did not surprise Nuggets president Josh Kroenke. “I heard Jokic`s comments clearly,” he stated last month. “Honestly, I was thinking the same thing before he said it.”
With Jokic having three years remaining on his contract, there is a sense of urgency to enhance the roster, particularly the bench unit. According to ESPN Research, the Nuggets` starters averaged 94.4 points per game during the regular season, the highest mark for any team since the 1986-87 season.
The Nuggets have three main avenues to reinforce their depth:
- Developing former draft picks like Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and DaRon Holmes into consistent rotation players.
- Pursuing trades. Since Denver has only one first-round pick available to trade (in 2031 or 2032), their most significant tangible asset is Michael Porter Jr. The forward averaged a career-high 18.2 points this season and is owed $38.3 million and $40.8 million over the next two seasons, respectively. Denver also has the combined $13.5 million salaries of Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric. However, as Denver is projected to be a first apron team, they are restricted from taking back more salary in a trade than they send out.
- Signing players via free agency. This path appears less likely because the Nuggets` salary structure is top-heavy, with Jokic, Jamal Murray, Porter, and Aaron Gordon accounting for 82% of their total payroll. Furthermore, the first year of Murray`s contract extension will push Denver over the first apron again. Unless a trade occurs to clear significant salary, Denver`s primary free-agency option will be the veteran`s minimum exception.
Golden State Warriors
“We are willing to give up what is necessary, depending on how much we believe it will improve our team. The main concern with mortgaging the future is the risk of being stuck. I don`t want us to trade away a lot, go all-in, and then face a catastrophic injury ten games into the season with no flexibility, leaving us stuck for four or five years.”
— Mike Dunleavy Jr., May 2025
Golden State General Manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. possesses the draft capital required to pursue a significant upgrade.
Starting on draft night, the Warriors are eligible to trade up to four first-round picks: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if within picks 1-20), and 2032. They also hold the right to swap first-round picks in the next seven years if their 2030 pick falls within the top 20.
However, the challenge lies in assembling a sufficient salary package for a trade without including Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler III. Stephen Curry, Butler, and Green account for 85% of Golden State`s payroll. The other six players under contract will collectively earn just $30 million next season. These salary constraints highlight Jonathan Kuminga`s crucial role in the Warriors` offseason plans.
The Warriors are expected to extend a $7.9 million one-year qualifying offer to Kuminga, making him a restricted free agent. With the Brooklyn Nets being the only team likely to offer a starting salary of $20 million or more (which Golden State could match), exploring a sign-and-trade might be the most viable option.
A sign-and-trade presents two main hurdles, in addition to Kuminga needing to sign a contract of at least three years with the first season guaranteed. First, only 50% of Kuminga`s outgoing salary counts towards the trade balance for Golden State (e.g., a $30 million starting salary counts as $15 million outgoing for the Warriors but $30 million incoming for the acquiring team). Second, Golden State is currently $25 million below the first apron. They would be restricted from trading for a player earning more than that amount unless additional salary is included in the deal.
Houston Rockets
“I believe continuity for its own sake is not our primary objective. Continuity is valuable, but the ultimate goal is to build a championship team. If we identify a move or series of moves that makes achieving that goal more likely, then we will prioritize those moves over maintaining continuity.”
— Rafael Stone (via Houston Chronicle)
If the Rockets` general manager is prepared to sacrifice continuity to acquire an All-NBA caliber player, then expect them to be highly active this offseason.
Houston meets the three crucial criteria for acquiring a superstar:
- Draft Equity: Houston holds five tradeable first-round picks over the next seven years. This includes the 10th pick in this year`s draft and unprotected firsts in 2027 (from Phoenix) and 2029 (from Phoenix or Dallas). The Rockets can also trade their own first-round picks in 2028, 2030, and 2032.
- Controllable Contracts: The Rockets have five players on first-round rookie contracts: Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson.
- Sizable Contracts: Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green signed rookie extensions last October. The “poison pill” restriction on their contracts is removed on July 1st, making them trade eligible. Both players are set to earn $33 million next season. Dillon Brooks has two years remaining on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).
Houston also has until June 29th to decide whether to exercise Fred VanVleet`s $44.9 million team option. The decision regarding VanVleet will significantly impact Houston`s financial flexibility in trades and their ability to retain free agent Steven Adams.
The Rockets performed at their best in their first-round series against Golden State when Adams was paired with Sengun. When both players were on the court this postseason, Houston had a net rating of plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions, compared to plus-30 in the regular season.
Houston is currently positioned right at the first apron when including the team options for VanVleet, Aaron Holiday, and the non-guaranteed contract of Jock Landale.
Los Angeles Lakers
“I think when you make a significant trade at the deadline, like trading your starting center for a point guard, it`s naturally going to create notable issues with the roster, and we saw some of those manifest. We understand that a primary objective this offseason will be to enhance our frontcourt size at the center position.”
— Rob Pelinka, May 2025
Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka attempted to acquire Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams at the trade deadline to give Luka Doncic a lob threat and help fill the void left by trading Anthony Davis. However, the trade was voided after Williams failed his physical examination.
While the Lakers lack the salary cap space to sign a free agent like Myles Turner, for example, Los Angeles does possess a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, five years of pick swap rights, the 2024 first-round pick Dalton Knecht, and over $70 million in expiring contracts (including Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Gabe Vincent) that can be used in trades.
The Lakers will continue to navigate balancing a “win-now” approach while LeBron James is on the roster with the goal of building a sustainable future roster centered around Luka Doncic. Doncic is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million contract extension starting August 2nd.
Milwaukee Bucks
“Not having a second championship… I look back at my career, and people might say, `Oh, incredible career, future Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever.` But for me, personally, my goal is that if I can`t help my team win a second ring, I feel like I`m disappointing myself.”
— Giannis Antetokounmpo, April 2025 (via Thanalysis podcast)
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely be a major focus of the NBA world this offseason for two key reasons.
ESPN`s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that Antetokounmpo is open to exploring whether staying with the Bucks or moving elsewhere represents his best long-term fit.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next three seasons, with a player option for the 2027-28 season. The 30-year-old two-time MVP will be eligible to sign a four-year, $293.4 million extension in the 2026 offseason, either with the Bucks or a new team if he moves.
As is often the case during offseasons, Milwaukee is under pressure to assemble a championship-caliber roster around the former MVP.
Improving the top-heavy roster could be challenging this summer. Milwaukee is limited in trading multiple first-round picks and can currently only move its 2031 or 2032 pick. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma are set to earn a combined $130 million out of the Bucks` projected $164 million payroll next season.
Lillard will turn 35 in July and is owed $113 million over the next two seasons while recovering from a torn Achilles. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., and Gary Trent Jr. could all become free agents this summer (Portis and Porter have player options). However, there are positive aspects: Milwaukee is no longer in financial difficulty and has the flexibility to add players through free agency or trade. They also compete in a relatively open Eastern Conference without a clear dominant favorite heading into next season.
Orlando Magic
“We are ready to transition from our rebuilding phase and enter the next stage for our team, viewing it through a more immediate `win-now` perspective.”
— Jeff Weltman, April 2025
While we might not call him conservative, Orlando`s head of basketball operations, Jeff Weltman, has seemingly attempted to strike a balance between drafting, developing, retaining talent, and competing for a top-six playoff seed in the Eastern Conference recently.
Since 2021, Orlando has built its roster primarily through the draft. The Magic boast a league-high nine players selected in the draft, with only two players (Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris) acquired via trade. This strategy has seen temporary success, with Orlando making the first round of the playoffs in consecutive seasons. However, they have failed to advance in both attempts, and with the first years of Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs` contract extensions about to begin, the Magic are projected to exceed the luxury tax and cross the first apron.
How the Magic take the next step will depend on Weltman`s approach when the team is healthy, and whether Orlando can realistically compete for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. Their season was impacted by injuries, with their top four scorers – Paolo Banchero, Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moritz Wagner – each missing at least 20 games during the regular season. The core trio of Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner played together in only six games, accounting for just 3% of Orlando`s total possessions.
The Magic possess the draft assets and contracts needed to be aggressive this offseason if external help is required. They became the first team since the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder to reach the postseason while ranking last in 3-point shooting percentage. Not only do they have two first-round picks in this year`s draft, but they also have the ability to trade up to four first-rounders over the next seven years. Additionally, they hold the right to swap first-round picks each season.
Phoenix Suns
“I want my career to end on my own terms, that`s the only thing. That`s my only concern. Because I see a lot of guys who don`t get that opportunity, so I want to keep putting in the effort to be able to make that choice myself.”
— Kevin Durant, via `The Draymond Green Show with Baron Davis`
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is the top target for teams this offseason, Kevin Durant is a very close second.
The 37-year-old averaged 26.6 points last season, ranking sixth in the NBA, and has only averaged fewer than 25 points once in his career, during his rookie season.
After two expensive seasons that fell short of expectations, the Suns are likely to retool their roster, starting with exploring trade options for the All-Star forward. Durant is entering the final year of his contract, and without an extension or a trade, the Suns risk losing him for nothing in the next offseason.
Three factors could significantly influence the trade package Phoenix receives:
- Can Phoenix drop below the second apron to combine contracts sent out in a trade? Or below the first apron to use more than 100% of a traded player exception? The Suns are projected to be $25 million over the second apron but could substantially reduce salary if Cody Martin ($8.7 million) is waived, Vasilije Micic`s $8.1 million team option is declined, and Bradley Beal`s contract is bought out. The same apron rules will apply to any team interested in acquiring Durant`s $54.6 million salary.
- Is Durant willing to sign a two-year, $112 million extension with his new team?
- Is the team trading for Durant still in a position to compete for a championship after making the deal?
San Antonio Spurs
“It simply shows they are not wasting time and are ready to take the next step promptly. We are moving forward, and I believe it`s a positive step in building our future.”
— Victor Wembanyama, February 2025
Like the Houston Rockets, the San Antonio Spurs meet the criteria – possessing draft assets, young talent, significant contracts, and a roster ready to contend – to potentially add a third star alongside Victor Wembanyama and De`Aaron Fox.
San Antonio not only holds two lottery picks, including the No. 2 overall selection, but the Spurs also have the right to swap first-round picks with the Atlanta Hawks in 2026, the Hawks` unprotected first in 2027, and several other pick swap rights. The Spurs are also permitted to trade two of their own future first-round picks (either 2029 and 2031 or 2030 and 2032). Additionally, the Spurs have 17 available second-round picks they can trade.
They also benefit from financial flexibility, allowing them to combine outgoing contracts and take back more salary in trades. Heading into the offseason, San Antonio is $32 million and $44 million below the first and second aprons, respectively. Excluding Fox and Wembanyama, the Spurs have ten players earning between $3 million and $27 million per year.
