With free agency just 93 days away on June 30th, NBA teams are already deep in preparation. Despite the ongoing regular season, the upcoming NBA draft lottery, and the playoffs, front offices are intensely focused on scouting college prospects and strategizing for the free agency and trade period this summer.
While blockbuster superstar moves might be less likely, numerous compelling questions are set to be addressed. This week, we delve into key aspects of the offseason, including an in-depth analysis of the center market, the Minnesota Timberwolves` offseason outlook, and significant decisions facing restricted free agents.
Minnesota Timberwolves` Summer Plans
Bontemps: Despite operating above the second luxury tax apron and lacking cap space, the Minnesota Timberwolves are poised to be a central focus this offseason. They face potential free agency decisions for key players: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Julius Randle. Alexander-Walker is expected to test the open market, while Reid and Randle have player options, creating complex scenarios for Minnesota.
Windhorst: The ownership situation adds another layer of intrigue. While Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez won their arbitration case to purchase controlling interest from Glen Taylor, the sale hasn`t been finalized. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver noted Taylor is still considering his options, creating uncertainty. This is crucial as the Timberwolves already have $145 million in committed salaries for next season. Re-signing key free agents while staying under the second apron will be challenging, especially given the team`s historical luxury tax spending. Adding to the complexity, team president Tim Connelly has an opt-out clause in his contract this summer due to the ownership uncertainty.
Bontemps: Regardless of the ownership and front office dynamics, decisions regarding Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle must be made. Alexander-Walker, coming off a bargain contract and entering his prime, is expected to command a significant raise. Naz Reid and Julius Randle are both likely to remain with Minnesota, though the specifics of their contracts are yet to be determined. They could opt into existing contracts or sign new deals.
Key Player Options: LeBron, Harden, Irving
Windhorst: Three major player options belong to veteran stars: LeBron James, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.
LeBron James could opt into his $53 million option or sign a new one-year max deal, maintaining flexibility. Last summer, he considered taking less to help the Lakers improve the roster, but ultimately took his full salary when deals didn`t materialize. With Luka Doncic now on the team, James might reconsider a discount, which could provide the Lakers with more financial flexibility for roster moves.
Bontemps: Kyrie Irving also has a player option, worth $42.9 million with the Dallas Mavericks. Despite a recent ACL injury expected to sideline him for a significant portion of next season, the Mavericks have signaled their commitment to Irving. The question is the structure of a new deal, as Dallas needs to manage luxury tax implications and address the playmaking void during Irving`s absence. If Irving opts in, Dallas will already be a luxury tax team with limited ball-handling options.
Windhorst: James Harden, after passing on a lucrative extension in Brooklyn years ago, has taken pay cuts in recent years. He bet on himself with a two-year deal, and after an All-Star season with the Clippers, he is likely to opt out and seek a raise. The Clippers, aiming for cap space in 2026, may need to adjust their plans to offer Harden a multi-year contract. With Norman Powell`s contract also nearing expiration, the Clippers face potential significant spending decisions.
The Center Free Agent Market
Bontemps: Outside of the top-tier free agents, the center position is the most intriguing this summer, featuring Naz Reid, Brook Lopez, and Myles Turner. Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers face financial constraints that complicate re-signing Lopez and Turner.
For the Bucks, retaining Brook Lopez while staying under the luxury tax will be challenging, especially if other players exercise their options. Similarly, the Indiana Pacers want to keep Myles Turner, but they are currently projected to be below the luxury tax without him and are hesitant to enter it. Turner is likely seeking a raise from his current $19.9 million salary, requiring careful negotiation.
Windhorst: Pacers sources confirm their desire to retain Turner, a long-tenured player for the franchise. However, navigating the financial constraints will be key. Keeping Turner will necessitate negotiation and potentially some roster maneuvering to avoid the luxury tax.
Bontemps: A factor in negotiations for Lopez and Turner is the currently depressed market for centers. Few teams have significant cap space, and none are likely to target high-priced veteran centers. Lopez and Turner`s leverage might be limited to mid-level offers from other teams, representing a potential pay cut. This dynamic might influence how aggressively Indiana and Milwaukee negotiate, as the new CBA rules tighten financial structures across the league, making these negotiations potentially more difficult.
Restricted Free Agents Face Tough Market
Windhorst: It`s a challenging year for restricted free agents. A veteran agent noted the limited cap space across the league, with only Brooklyn having substantial room and potentially favoring a slower rebuild. This agent described the situation as unprecedented, with restricted free agents facing limited leverage.
Brooklyn is projected to have significant cap space but may prioritize trades over free agent signings, maintaining flexibility for future moves. This lack of competitive pressure diminishes the leverage of restricted free agents like Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Santi Aldama, and Cam Thomas.
A prominent agent emphasized the “no leverage” situation, preparing clients for a “free agent recession” this summer. With the salary cap expected to rise next year and teams adjusting to new spending rules, restricted free agents might need to wait for better opportunities.
Bontemps: Jonathan Kuminga`s situation is particularly interesting. He was discussed in trade talks previously, but the Warriors have shown strong support for the young wing. However, with Golden State`s significant commitments to Curry, Butler, and Green, Kuminga`s fit and potential big-money contract demands create uncertainty, especially after extension talks stalled before the season.
Windhorst: Josh Giddey`s situation in Chicago is also noteworthy. His role has expanded since trades and injuries, boosting his stats. However, the Bulls` recent large contract for Patrick Williams, who underperformed, might influence their approach to Giddey, potentially leading to a tougher negotiation.
