The NBA regular season has concluded, marked by unexpected team performances and a major trade that caught even bookmakers off guard.
Here`s a look back at the NBA season focusing on betting trends and key stories:
Oklahoma City Thunder Exceed Expectations, Philadelphia 76ers Underperform
The Oklahoma City Thunder were a remarkably successful team for bettors this season. They beat the point spread in 68.3% of their games, which is the best record in the last 35 years, according to ESPN Research. Even with increasingly unfavorable betting lines, they consistently outperformed expectations, going 18-3 against the spread at the end of the season, including an 11-game streak in March and April. They were rarely underdogs, being favored in almost every game.
In contrast, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled against betting expectations. They only covered the spread in 34.1% of their games, going 28-54 against the spread. Only two teams in the past 35 years have performed worse against the spread than this season`s 76ers: the 2003-04 Orlando Magic and the 1995-96 Houston Rockets.
Los Angeles Lakers: America`s Team with Dončić Effect
The Los Angeles Lakers have always been a popular NBA team due to their history and star players. Their popularity with bettors went even higher after they traded for Luka Dončić in February.
`If there’s one team that is America’s team in basketball, it’s the Lakers,` said Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings. `They have fans everywhere and are very popular for betting.`
Both DraftKings and ESPN BET reported that the Lakers attracted the most spread bets this season. Interestingly, they were also the most-bet moneyline underdog, especially before Dončić joined, as they were often getting point spreads.
Adam Landeka, VP at ESPN BET, noted, `Despite a strong second half of the season, the Lakers were often underdogs earlier in the year due to injuries. Bettors frequently bet on the Lakers as underdogs and were often rewarded.`
Dončić`s arrival also made the Lakers a popular pick for championship futures bets, making them a significant liability for sportsbooks entering the playoffs.
Oddsmakers like Hal Egeland from BetMGM were surprised by the Mavericks` decision to trade Dončić to the Lakers. The trade was unexpected, and initially, some thought it might be a mistake or a sign of underlying issues within the Mavericks organization.
Sportsbooks quickly adjusted, recalculating the Lakers` odds to win the NBA Finals, significantly shortening them from 40-1 to 18-1.
Egeland mentioned the widespread disbelief online regarding the trade, stating it was a rare moment of sports internet consensus.
Surprise Underdog Teams
Several teams exceeded betting expectations this season, rewarding bettors who backed them.
The Portland Trail Blazers were notable, being the first NBA team to surpass their preseason win total. They were projected to win 21.5 games but achieved 36 wins. DraftKings bettors favored them as underdogs more than any other team.
The Chicago Bulls also outperformed expectations and made it to the play-in tournament. They exceeded their projected 28.5 wins and were a popular spread bet on ESPN BET.
However, the Detroit Pistons were perhaps the biggest surprise. They dramatically improved from 14 wins in the previous season to 44 wins and a playoff spot in 2024-25. Their playoff appearance was considered highly unlikely at the start of the season, and they significantly exceeded their projected win total, making them a major underdog success story.
Avello from DraftKings commented on the Pistons` turnaround, calling it `probably the biggest surprise in the league.`
Popular Player Prop Bets
Given the Lakers` popularity, LeBron James was frequently the most-bet player for prop bets across several sportsbooks.
Dončić was also consistently among the top-five most-bet players for props, even before joining the Lakers. Avello noted that having two players from the same team so heavily bet on props is unusual, mainly driven by the trade.
Other consistently popular players for prop bets included superstars like Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, favored for their consistent high performance and stats.
