As the 2024-25 NBA regular season approaches its climax, teams are shifting their focus towards the playoffs, while others are already setting their sights on the lottery. The anticipation is also building for the NBA regular-season awards, with the MVP race in the Western Conference taking center stage.
Currently, the major awards appear to be anyone`s game. The Defensive Player of the Year award is wide open, and the Sixth Man of the Year is also fiercely contested.
NBA experts Zach Kram, Tim MacMahon, Chris Herring, Jamal Collier, and Tim Bontemps delve into the most pressing questions surrounding the league`s prestigious regular-season awards, offering their insights and predictions.
Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander Lead MVP Race. Who Gets the Nod?
Zach Kram: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on track to become only the tenth player in NBA history to achieve a scoring title while leading his team to the best record in the league. Historically, eight out of the previous nine players with this accomplishment went on to win MVP. The sole exception was Michael Jordan`s second-place finish in 1996-97, when Karl Malone controversially took home the award. However, Gilgeous-Alexander has also surpassed Nikola Jokic at the top of advanced stats leaderboards. Even metrics that typically favor Jokic due to his significant on/off differential, such as estimated plus-minus and LEBRON, now indicate SGA as having been slightly more valuable this season.
Tim MacMahon: Both Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander have compelling arguments for MVP, making it a tough choice. Denver Nuggets fans might disagree, but if the race is this close, I`d lean towards the player who hasn`t yet won the award, especially since Gilgeous-Alexander`s team holds a substantial lead in the Western Conference standings. Gilgeous-Alexander`s league-leading scoring margin of 352 points and a plus/minus of 911 strongly suggest this might be his year.
Chris Herring: This season feels like a coronation for Gilgeous-Alexander. His team`s dominant performance, coupled with four 50-point games, traditionally makes him a clear MVP choice. On the other hand, Jokic is playing exceptional basketball, already boasting three MVPs and an NBA championship. While both players are incredibly valuable to their teams, OKC remains strong even when SGA is off the court, whereas Denver`s performance dips more significantly without Jokic. “Value” is subjective, and while Jokic could be a reasonable pick, I`d find it hard not to give it to SGA this season.
Tim Bontemps: It might sound ironic coming from someone who conducts MVP straw polls, but this award isn`t always about who is most deserving. This year, both candidates are fully deserving and having outstanding seasons. That`s precisely what makes the choice so challenging in most years, and especially this year: you have to pick between two players with undeniable cases.
Jamal Collier: SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been dominant all season, leading a competitive Western Conference. Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to win the scoring title and ranks high in advanced metrics. He`s been a frontrunner for a while, and this season feels like his coronation.
Draymond Green Says DPOY Race Open After Wembanyama Injury. Who Has Strongest Case?
MacMahon: Luguentz Dort is the linchpin of the league`s stingiest defense. In a season without a clear favorite, Dort is my pick. While his stats of 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks might not be flashy, a Thunder team poll would unanimously vote for Dort. His intensity and commitment to guarding the toughest opponents set the tone for Oklahoma City, which has allowed only seven 30-point games to opponents this season. Elite scorers rarely challenge Dort in isolation, and he allows a mere 0.64 points per possession in those situations.
Bontemps: The DPOY race is still unclear with weeks left in the season. Evan Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Draymond Green, and Ivica Zubac are all in contention. It`s as wide open as any award race in recent memory, and I`m eager to see how it unfolds.
Kram: It`s a tough call because the top defensive teams – Thunder, Clippers, Magic, Rockets, and Celtics – excel due to collective effort and coaching, not solely individual brilliance. In the absence of a clear favorite, Dort could win as a representative of the Thunder`s defensive dominance, similar to Marcus Smart in 2021-22. However, historically, big men are favored for DPOY, making Mobley and Green frontrunners currently.
Herring: I`m leaning towards Draymond Green. His defensive IQ and effort have been crucial for a team needing defensive strength while Stephen Curry led the offense. Opponents shoot significantly worse around the basket when guarded by Green. At 35, averaging over a steal and a block per game, he`d be the oldest DPOY winner. The crowded field of Thunder defenders might inadvertently benefit someone like Green, as no single Thunder player stands out as the clear favorite.
Collier: It`s unfortunate Wemby`s defensive impact won`t be recognized this season. His mere presence alters opponents` shot selection. With him out, the award lacks a clear frontrunner. Jaren Jackson Jr. of Memphis and Evan Mobley of Cleveland are strong contenders, especially given Cleveland`s potential lack of other major award winners.
Most Improved Player: Who Has Superstar Potential?
Herring: Cade Cunningham, perhaps? He might already be a superstar, which is my issue. Averaging 23-4-8 last season, Cunningham was already a star, making his MIP candidacy feel strange. I dislike the trend of considering players already averaging 20+ points. The question is, what`s more impressive: going from obscurity to good player, or from borderline star to superstar? I prefer the former for MIP.
Collier: I agree that Cunningham shouldn`t be considered for MIP, nor should Amen Thompson, a high draft pick in his second year. Tyler Herro, however, shows significant improvement. He was a deserving All-Star this year and carried Miami earlier in the season.
Bontemps: Cunningham and Evan Mobley are my top MIP choices. Cunningham has led Detroit to their best season in years and earned All-Star consideration. Mobley has also significantly improved, becoming an All-Star caliber versatile big man.
Kram: Mobley`s improved offense – career-high usage and efficiency – combined with defensive prowess gives him the highest two-way potential in this category. Concerns about his stagnation last year seem unfounded; he`s an All-Star now and should remain one for years.
MacMahon: Cunningham has proven he can lead a winning team. With better coaching and veteran support, he`s thrived. A big guard averaging 25.7 points and 9.2 assists at 23 years old is on a superstar trajectory.
Sixth Man to All-Star Pipeline? Unlikely Candidates This Year
Bontemps: My Sixth Man pick is Payton Pritchard, and none of this year`s candidates are likely future All-Stars. Pritchard is a great story and a valuable piece for Boston, but not a future All-Star.
Kram: I agree, no likely All-Stars among top Sixth Man candidates like Pritchard, Malik Beasley, or Ty Jerome. Russell Westbrook, an effective sixth man for the Nuggets, might get honorary All-Star nod later, like Nowitzki and Wade.
MacMahon: Amen Thompson of Houston could have been, but he`s now a starter. No rising All-Stars among this year`s Sixth Man candidates.
Herring: Pritchard will likely win Sixth Man. But Naz Reid, last year`s winner, could become an All-Star. He`s versatile, efficient, and excels with starter minutes. In starts this season, he`s averaged 18.3 points, 9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. In a bigger role, All-Star potential is there.
Collier: Minnesota raves about Naz Reid. Unlikely to win again this year, but Reid is crucial to the Timberwolves and could break through to become an All-Star alongside Anthony Edwards.
65-Game Rule: Tweak or Trash?
Herring: Tweak it. Never liked it. Haliburton admitted playing through discomfort for award eligibility, which impacts supermax contracts. The fine print is also problematic, disqualifying players like DiVincenzo, who played 81 games last season, from deserved recognition.
Kram: Tweak it, especially for All-Defensive and All-NBA teams. Defensive specialists often miss the minutes threshold. Stars can be more valuable in fewer games than lesser players in 82. All-Rookie teams are exempt; All-Defense and All-NBA should be too.
MacMahon: Keep it, but drop the minutes limit, especially for All-Defensive teams. It`s unfortunate the league needs to incentivize star players to play more, but it`s the current NBA reality.
Bontemps: Tweak it. Never favored it; voters generally didn`t pick players below 65 games anyway. Trust voters to make informed decisions, as they have.
Collier: Tweak it. Never a fan; it “solved” a non-existent problem.
