Facing elimination, the Ottawa Senators will host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto holds a dominant 3-0 series lead heading into the matchup. They won Game 1 decisively with a 6-2 score and secured close 3-2 victories in overtime for both Games 2 and 3. Historically, only four teams in NHL history have successfully rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to advance, the last being the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. For the Senators to become the fifth team to achieve this rare comeback, winning Saturday`s game is essential.
According to SportsLine consensus odds, the Senators are slight favorites on home ice with a -113 money-line (meaning a $113 bet wins $100). The Maple Leafs are close behind at -107. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5.
Both teams feature key stars in this series, with Toronto`s offense spearheaded by Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had an impressive 2024-25 season, reaching the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. Matthews` point total was his lowest since the shortened 2020-21 season, although he missed 15 games. These two Maple Leafs players are central figures in Saturday`s NHL same-game parlay selections, which were developed using the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times to produce its top-rated player prop picks. These picks are given star ratings, up to five stars, for various player performance bets. These selections can be valuable for building successful parlays, including same-game parlays, on different sports betting platforms.
Here are the SportsLine model`s top three player prop picks for the Maple Leafs-Senators Game 4 matchup on Saturday, along with the potential payout if combined into a same-game parlay:
Maple Leafs-Senators SGP (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): 5 stars
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): 4.5 stars
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): 4 stars
The model shows high confidence that both Marner and Matthews will finish below 1.5 total points in Saturday`s game; these are rated as the top prop plays. While Marner has accumulated six points and Matthews five points so far in the series, the model projects Marner to score 0.3 points and Matthews 0.5 points in Game 4. Both players have finished under their total points line in four of their last five games against teams with middle-tier defenses. For the Senators, Tim Stutzle, who led the team in points this season, is also projected to finish below his 0.5 points line. The 23-year-old winger has only one point in the series, and the model predicts 0.3 points for him on Saturday. He has also finished under his points line in four of his last five games when the Senators were the favored team.
