The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to kick off their Stanley Cup Playoffs journey on Sunday as they host the Ottawa Senators for Game 1 of their first-round series. The Maple Leafs, after clinching the Atlantic Division title and securing the second spot in the Eastern Conference with 108 points, are aiming for their first Stanley Cup victory since 1967. Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators, who qualified as the Eastern Conference`s top wild-card team, are still in pursuit of their franchise`s first Cup.
The puck is scheduled to drop at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. According to betting odds, Toronto is favored to win. Experts from a proven model, which demonstrated profitability during the 2024-25 NHL regular season, have provided their predictions for this matchup.
Here are the model`s top three picks for the Maple Leafs versus Senators game on Sunday:
Maple Leafs to Win
Despite Ottawa winning all three games against Toronto in the regular season, the Maple Leafs are still favored to win Game 1 at home. Toronto`s strong regular-season performance, including a profitable home record and a recent 13-3 run leading into the playoffs, supports this prediction. The model projects a 62% chance of a Maple Leafs victory in this game.
Over 5.5 Goals
While the initial two games between these teams saw low scores, their most recent match had a total of six goals. Additionally, Ottawa enters the playoffs with a five-game streak of games exceeding the over/under goal total. The model anticipates a combined goal count of 5.6, suggesting that betting on over 5.5 goals is a favorable option.
Auston Matthews to Score Anytime
Auston Matthews, a key player for the Maple Leafs, had a remarkable season, averaging over a point per game and scoring 33 goals in 67 games. His historical performance against the Senators is also noteworthy, with 25 goals in 35 career games. The model estimates he has nearly a 60% likelihood of scoring in this particular game.
For fans seeking more NHL predictions, additional picks for every game are available from SportsLine, utilizing the same model that has shown success in over/under and puck-line bets. Matt Severance, a top NHL expert at SportsLine, also provides his best bets for the NHL playoffs.
