The Winnipeg Jets are set to face off against the Dallas Stars in Game 1 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs conference semifinal series this Wednesday. Both teams earned their spot after grueling seven-game battles in the first round. Dallas edged out the Colorado Avalanche with a 4-2 victory in their Game 7 on Saturday, while Winnipeg secured a thrilling 4-3 overtime win against the St. Louis Blues on Sunday.
Puck drop for the series opener is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at Canada Life Center in Winnipeg.
Game Context and Initial Odds
Entering the series, Dallas is listed as a -125 favorite on the money line, with Winnipeg as a +105 underdog. The total goals over/under is set at 5.5, and Dallas has a puck line of -1.5 at +202 odds. These figures represent the initial betting landscape as Game 1 approaches.
SportsLine Model Predictions
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has released its top picks for the Jets vs. Stars Game 1 matchup. The model demonstrated strong performance in the first round, particularly on top-rated puck-line and over/under picks.
Over 5.5 Goals
The model leans towards the Over hitting in this game. In the first round, four of seven Stars games and six of seven Jets games surpassed the total goals mark. Winnipeg`s starting goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck, a Vezina Trophy finalist, faced difficulties in the previous series, posting a 3.85 goals-against average and being pulled in back-to-back road games. Defensively, Winnipeg faces uncertainty with blueliners Josh Morrissey and Logan Stanley questionable for Game 1 due to injuries. Dallas defenseman Miro Heiskanen is also questionable with a knee injury. These factors contribute to the expectation of a higher-scoring contest, with the model projecting over 5.5 goals in a significant percentage of simulations.
Kyle Connor Anytime Goal-Scorer
Another strong projection from the model is for Jets forward Kyle Connor to score at any time during Game 1. Connor netted four goals over his seven first-round games. Importantly, he has a history of success against the Stars, having scored four goals in four regular-season meetings against Dallas during the 2024-25 season.
Based on these projections, the SportsLine model identifies Over 5.5 goals and Kyle Connor scoring as key opportunities for Game 1 bets.
