Testing conducted on Tuesday confirmed the worst fears for anyone who witnessed Jayson Tatum collapse during Monday`s Boston Celtics game against the New York Knicks. Tatum suffered a ruptured right Achilles tendon late in the fourth quarter. This devastating injury not only ends his participation in the current postseason but also puts his availability for the entire 2025-26 season in serious doubt.
Considering Tatum`s pivotal role for the reigning champions—as their primary scorer and a three-time All-NBA First Team selection (with a fourth likely upcoming)—his injury ranks among the most impactful in NBA history.
The immediate consequences involve Boston`s chances of overcoming a 3-1 series deficit against the Knicks, who are now favored. However, the ramifications extend significantly further, influencing how the Celtics will manage the upcoming season.
Let`s examine how Boston might perform without Tatum, the historical context of Achilles injuries in the NBA, and what this means for the Celtics organization.
When Can Tatum Be Expected to Return?
Since Jose Juan Barea in 2019, no NBA player has returned from an Achilles rupture in less than 10 and a half months. This suggests the Celtics should realistically anticipate Tatum being sidelined for the entirety of the 2025-26 regular season. While a return during the postseason is more plausible, there`s almost no historical precedent for a player of Tatum`s stature returning from such a severe, season-ending injury specifically for the playoffs.
Examples like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who suffered significant injuries in the 2019 Finals, had postseason returns discussed but ultimately did not occur. Durant returned a year and a half after his rupture. Based on this history, Boston might need to plan for the 2025-26 season under the assumption that Tatum will not play at all, even in the playoffs. This perspective fundamentally changes the strategic thinking for a franchise that has achieved significant playoff success since drafting Tatum in 2018.
Second-Apron Financial Constraints
As previously reported, the Celtics are facing a challenging financial outlook. With Tatum`s supermax extension, the largest in NBA history at the time, set to activate next summer, Boston is projected to be over $40 million above the 2025-26 luxury tax line, before even considering veteran Al Horford`s free agency status at age 39.
The substantial tax bill and the restrictive rules for teams exceeding the second luxury tax apron always meant difficult roster decisions were looming. Tatum`s injury accelerates these considerations. Paying a luxury tax potentially exceeding $200 million for a championship contender is one scenario; doing so for a team with uncertain playoff advancement capabilities is another.
Age is also a factor. If Boston`s next championship window shifts from 2026 to 2027, it impacts decisions about veterans like Jrue Holiday, who will be 36 by the 2026-27 season. The Celtics might benefit from trading Holiday while his trade value is high to reduce payroll and potentially acquire younger perimeter talent, even if it means a defensive downgrade in the short term.
Conversely, Tatum`s absence might prevent Boston from entertaining the drastic option of trading Jaylen Brown. The long-term financial strain stems from Tatum and Brown collectively earning over 60% of the salary cap through 2028-29, making it challenging to maintain the roster depth that has been a team strength. However, in Tatum`s absence, Brown`s ability to create his own offense, a skill less common among other Celtics rotation players this season, becomes critically important.
Expectations for Tatum
Kevin Durant`s recovery will inevitably be the primary comparison point for Tatum. Despite suffering his Achilles rupture at 30, three years older than Tatum, Durant successfully returned as a dominant force and remains an All-Star even six years later.
Durant`s case demonstrates that it is possible to avoid a significant decline in performance after an Achilles injury. Perhaps the most likely long-term impact for Tatum will be on his durability. He has played more NBA games than any other player since being drafted, including playoffs, and this season marked a career high in games missed due to injury, although many were during periods when Boston was resting players.
Whenever Tatum does return, he will likely face initial limitations, such as avoiding back-to-back games and having his minutes monitored. This could potentially make it harder for him to consistently earn All-NBA First Team honors, even if his per-game productivity remains high.
Historically, versatile wings have often had better returns from Achilles injuries, including Thompson and Wesley Matthews, who returned less than eight months after his injury in 2015 and continued playing into his late 30s. While there`s no guarantee Tatum will follow this path rather than becoming a cautionary example like DeMarcus Cousins or John Wall, there`s also no inherent reason to believe an Achilles rupture marks the end of Tatum`s ability to play at an elite level.
How Can the Celtics Come Back in This Series?
First, the team must process and move past the emotional shock of seeing their star player require assistance off the court. While disheartening, Tatum`s teammates will have a couple of days to adjust before attempting to stay alive in Game 5 at home.
Even prior to Tatum`s injury, the Celtics faced a significant challenge, trailing 3-1 in the series. Historically, 3-1 comebacks are more common for the higher seed (8% success rate since 1984) compared to the lower seed (1% success rate). Adding the loss of their leading scorer complicates this already difficult task.
In Game 4, Tatum was the primary reason Boston remained competitive despite allowing 70 second-half points, scoring 42 himself before the injury. In his absence, the Celtics will need to lean heavily on their defense, which managed to hold the Knicks to lower point totals in Games 2 and 3. A key defensive priority will be limiting Jalen Brunson`s drives to the basket; his 18 points in the paint in Game 4 were nearly as many as he scored there in the previous three games combined.
New York scored 64 points in the paint in Game 4, one of the highest totals by any team in the playoffs this season. Boston could potentially counter Tatum`s absence by using larger lineups, prioritizing rim protection even at the expense of offensive spacing. If Boston can effectively disrupt the Knicks` offensive flow and return to their strong defensive form, they possess enough remaining scoring talent to potentially win three consecutive games and achieve an improbable series comeback. Nevertheless, the combination of the Game 4 loss and Tatum`s injury has significantly reduced Boston`s odds compared to their position entering the game.
