The Indiana Pacers hosting Game 3 marks their return to the NBA Finals stage in Indianapolis after a quarter-century absence. This journey is widely seen as being significantly ahead of schedule, if it was even predicted at all.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals the previous season, Indiana was considered a significant underdog to repeat that success as the 4th seed, let alone advance further. Their path included overcoming the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and then defeating the 3rd-seeded New York Knicks in the conference finals, notably without securing home-court advantage.
According to data from SportsOddsHistory.com and ESPN Research, only two NBA Finals teams in the last four decades began the season with worse championship odds than Indiana`s +5000 (50-1). These were the 2020 Miami Heat (+7500) and the 2002 New Jersey Nets (+6000), with the 2022 Boston Celtics also listed at +5000.
Historical trends suggest that success for such unexpected finalists often doesn`t culminate in a championship victory. However, through their remarkable journey and numerous come-from-behind wins along the way, the Pacers have already made history by achieving the improbable.
Let`s examine how the Indiana Pacers stack up against other surprising NBA Finals teams, what their run reveals about this particular squad, and whether there were any signs that this was coming.
Unexpected Conference Finalists and Their Follow-Up Seasons
The initial skepticism surrounding Indiana entering this season may have stemmed from the fate of other recent teams that unexpectedly reached the conference finals. The Pacers` own run last year as the 6th seed benefited from injuries to key opponents, including Giannis Antetokounmpo and several Knicks players.
Since the first round expanded to a best-of-seven series in 2003, five teams have reached the conference finals with title odds of +5000 or more entering the playoffs, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Notably, all five of these instances have occurred since 2018, indicating a recent trend of increased playoff upsets. Among these five teams, Indiana is the first not only to return to the conference finals but to advance beyond that stage.
Three of these five teams were eliminated in the first round the following season. Before the Pacers, only the Celtics managed to return to the conference finals after their improbable run. Boston eventually reached the NBA Finals in 2022, though with significantly different personnel and coaching compared to their 2018 team.
Like Indiana, the 2018-19 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks had hoped their conference finals appearances, facilitated by upsets and favorable brackets, would mark the beginning of sustained success. Instead, those runs proved to be the peak of their respective eras; neither team has won a playoff series since.
Considering the age of Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton (25) and the team`s core supporting players, such a decline seemed less likely for Indiana. However, a similar hope for sustained growth existed for Trae Young and the Hawks just four years ago. Therefore, it was by no means guaranteed that the Pacers` playoff success from 2024 would translate again this spring.
The Significant Upset Victory Over the Cavaliers
While Indiana benefited from the absence of the Boston Celtics from their side of the East bracket – a team that had swept the Pacers en route to the title the previous postseason – the Pacers first had to achieve a shocking upset victory themselves: defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Several factors may have lessened the perceived impact of the Pacers eliminating Cleveland, a team whose 64 regular-season wins were tied for the third-highest tally among teams that failed to reach the conference finals. Concurrent upsets, such as New York defeating a 61-win Boston team, and the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder facing a seven-game scare against the Denver Nuggets in the West, divided attention. Additionally, Indiana might have been a victim of its own efficiency; the win over the Cavaliers concluded relatively quickly. After a signature comeback secured Game 2 (with Garland and Mobley out for Cleveland), the Pacers lost Game 3 decisively at home. Yet, they bounced back with a dominant 20-point victory in Game 4 and effectively ended the series drama by closing it out on the road in five games.
Nevertheless, based on pre-series odds, Indiana`s win ranked among the 10 most unlikely upset victories since 2000. Furthermore, among all upsets in the first two rounds during that period, the Pacers join only the 2023 Heat as teams who leveraged that result into an NBA Finals appearance.
Ranking Indiana Among the Most Surprising NBA Finalists
The limitation of SportsOddsHistory.com`s preseason data collection excludes some older, potentially even more surprising finalists. Teams like the 1977-78 Seattle SuperSonics, coming off a losing record the previous season, and the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers, who also had a sub-.500 record the year prior due to Bill Walton`s injuries, presumably faced much longer title odds to start their respective seasons than this year`s Pacers.
However, all of those historical teams had solidified their status as stronger Finals contenders by the time the playoffs began. The 1977 Blazers, 2002 Nets, and 2022 Celtics were all top-two seeds, while the 1978 Sonics and 2020 Heat benefited from exceptionally wide-open playoff fields (due to Walton`s injury uncertainty and the unique Orlando bubble environment, respectively).
If we shift our focus to title odds at the start of the postseason, the Pacers (+6600) again find themselves in rare historical company. SportsOddsHistory.com`s data extends back to 1973, and according to their records, only two finalists were considered bigger long shots: the 2023 Heat (+12500), who emerged from the play-in tournament as the 8th seed, and the 1981 Houston Rockets (+10000).
The 1981 Houston Rockets likely stand out as the single most surprising NBA Finals team since the ABA-NBA merger. Although precise preseason odds aren`t available, Houston had finished the previous season at .500 and actually had a worse record (40-42) in 1980-81. Yet, they overcame the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in the first round and a 52-win San Antonio Spurs team in the conference semifinals, before facing a sub-.500 Kansas City Kings team in the conference finals.
Consistent with the trend for most of these unexpected teams, the 1981 Rockets` run concluded with a loss in the NBA Finals. Should Indiana manage to win the Finals, they would become the least likely champion by a significant margin based on pre-playoff odds. Currently, that distinction is shared by the 1995 Houston Rockets (the defending champions, but a 6th seed in a strong Western Conference) and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks – both of whom entered the postseason with +1800 odds. Based on the implied probabilities, those teams were considered more than three times more likely to win the title than the Pacers.
Could This Run Have Been Predicted?
This wasn`t a scenario where advanced statistics quietly hinted at an impending Pacers Finals appearance. By winning 49 games, Indiana actually overperformed compared to their +2.1 net rating, which ranked only 13th in the NBA – placing them just behind their first-round opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, and even trailing the Detroit Pistons by this metric.
However, upon closer examination, there were underlying reasons to believe in Indiana`s potential. The team had two separate stretches where, after starting 9-14, they finished the remainder of the season at a 41-18 pace, which projects to a 57-win full season. This improvement was partly attributed to Tyrese Haliburton regaining his form after a slow start, but it was also significantly tied to improved health.
Indiana struggled early in the campaign when starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith were injured, posting a 5-9 record in the 14 games both missed in November and December. Adjusting to include only lineups featuring players from teams` projected full-strength rotations, Dan Feldman`s pre-playoff analysis in the Dunc`d On Basketball newsletter ranked the Pacers second in the Eastern Conference – ahead of the Celtics.
Yet, even by this adjusted metric, Indiana was still slightly behind Cleveland and faced the disadvantage of not having home-court advantage against them. It`s also worth noting that Feldman didn`t specifically identify the Pacers as a playoff sleeper based on their full-strength performance. Instead, he highlighted the LA Clippers, who boasted the highest projected rating of any team but were eliminated in the opening round by Denver.
Everything appears obvious in hindsight, making it tempting to seek clear explanations when a team defies expectations so dramatically. The reality is that any analytical model or prediction method that could have accurately foretold Indiana`s improbable rise would likely have led to incorrect predictions elsewhere. We are better served simply celebrating the Pacers` remarkable run precisely because it was so unexpected and defied conventional analysis.
