The NBA calendar is marked by dates that lodge themselves in memory, occasions prompting recollections of where we were and who we were with. Moments like LeBron James`s decision to join the Miami Heat on July 8, 2010, Kevin Durant signing with the Golden State Warriors on July 7, 2016, Kobe Bryant`s 60-point finale on April 13, 2016, or Luka Doncic`s recent move to the Los Angeles Lakers on February 2, certainly fit this description.
However, it`s exceptionally rare to witness two such impactful events unfold on the same day, merely hours apart. This is precisely why Monday, May 12, 2025, will remain etched in the minds of those following the NBA.
That day delivered a whirlwind of significant news and unfortunate developments. The Dallas Mavericks defied the odds, turning their 11th-best chance into the top overall pick in the draft lottery, granting them the likely opportunity to select Duke standout Cooper Flagg. Simultaneously, the reigning champion Boston Celtics suffered a devastating blow, with Jayson Tatum sustaining a torn Achilles tendon that will sideline him for the remainder of this year`s playoffs and likely the vast majority of the next season. As one Eastern Conference scout put it, it was truly a “shocking day all around.”
The consequences were immense. The league already leaned heavily towards Western Conference power, and the combination of another potential generational talent landing in the West, coupled with the Eastern Conference`s dominant team losing its prime superstar for an extended period, has only exacerbated this imbalance, turning a tilt into a significant chasm.
As the reverberations from the Mavericks` fortunate lottery outcome and Tatum`s franchise-altering injury continue, we consulted sources across the league to gauge the future implications for the growing conference disparity, the newly wide-open Eastern Conference landscape, and the increasingly competitive Western Conference that just gained another high-level prospect.
League insiders on initial shock of Tatum`s injury
Few injuries carry the weight of Jayson Tatum`s recent one. At 27, holding the league`s richest contract, Tatum was entering the peak of his career, poised for what would likely be his fourth consecutive All-NBA First Team selection. He is on a path toward an all-time great career and already possesses a Hall of Fame-worthy résumé.
He serves as the cornerstone player for the defending champions, a team that, even when trailing the New York Knicks in their current series, was widely considered the strong favorite to emerge from the East.
“It`s a completely unforeseen scenario,” commented one executive from an Eastern Conference team. “This just doesn`t happen to a guy like that.”
While the Celtics face luxury tax concerns, team president Brad Stevens and the front office would likely have managed their finances without needing to dismantle their core dramatically. And prior to this event, projecting into the future, Boston seemed positioned to remain at or near the top of the Eastern Conference throughout the decade.
“Your mind starts running through scenarios you never could`ve thought would happen,” the executive added, reflecting on Boston`s potential strategic shift. “They have a lot of thinking to do.”
Boston`s prospects of repeating as champions this season are now virtually non-existent; the Knicks have the opportunity to eliminate the Celtics as soon as Wednesday.
With Tatum effectively ruled out for the entirety of the 2025-26 season, it`s difficult to envision a scenario where the Celtics don`t scale back somewhat this summer, focusing on reducing costs and strategically rebuilding with an eye toward another potential Finals run in the 2026-27 season.
“This already was their last chance with their current team to go as far as possible before the financial crunch,” noted a Western Conference scout. “They`ll have to get creative.”
A weak East race becomes weaker — and wide open
Other traditional Eastern Conference powers were already facing headwinds. Milwaukee and Miami were seen as potentially falling out of contention. The Heat, despite scraping into the playoffs after winning only 37 games following the trade of Jimmy Butler III, were handily defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, underscoring the work needed for Miami to rejoin the East`s elite.
The Bucks, meanwhile, find themselves at a critical juncture after their own significant injury setback: Damian Lillard tore an Achilles during their five-game first-round loss to the Indiana Pacers. This, coupled with three consecutive first-round exits, has cast a cloud of uncertainty over Giannis Antetokounmpo`s future in Milwaukee.
The Indiana Pacers, who reached the Eastern Conference finals, are well-positioned to step into this void. Indiana has established a fast-paced offensive identity driven by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Their young roster is largely under team control going forward, though center Myles Turner is a notable free agent this offseason.
The New York Knicks stand on the verge of reaching their first conference finals in 25 years, relying on a cohesive starting unit whose core is under contract for the foreseeable future. And Cleveland, despite a season hampered by injuries and the loss to the Pacers, remains confident in its ability to rebound behind its promising young core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
Several middling Eastern Conference teams might now perceive an opportunity to make aggressive moves to climb the standings, a strategy that previously seemed contingent on whether Boston`s apparent dynasty would materialize.
“[Tatum`s injury] makes people start having different thoughts about going after it,” an Eastern Conference scout observed. “`How close are you to making the Finals?` `What do other teams` windows look like now?` All of that factors in.”
Could the Orlando Magic decide to pursue a trade to enhance their core featuring Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner? Perhaps the Philadelphia 76ers, aided by lottery luck that gave them the third pick, can regain health and return to postseason contention, or maybe Cade Cunningham and the developing Detroit Pistons will make another significant step forward.
Among all the potential shifts, one point is likely to be a consistent discussion throughout the summer and into next season.
“It makes the East worse, for sure,” the scout stated. “That`s not good for the league.”
Draft lottery results create new questions about the system
Jayson Tatum`s injury somewhat overshadowed the sheer pandemonium that unfolded a couple of hours earlier in Chicago. With Cooper Flagg projected as the top prospect on every team`s draft board, there was a level of anticipation rivaling the buzz surrounding Victor Wembanyama in 2023.
However, the potential destination of Flagg became secondary to the shock of the Dallas Mavericks securing the top pick with only a 1.8% probability. Furthermore, with the San Antonio Spurs vaulting to second and the 76ers climbing to third, this draft lottery marked only the third instance in NBA history where the three teams with the worst regular-season records failed to land one of the top three selections.
“This is really a `Careful what you wish for` moment for the league,” remarked one executive.
The previous occurrence was in 1993, when the Orlando Magic, having already secured Shaquille O`Neal with the top pick the year prior, won the lottery again to draft Chris Webber. Although Webber was traded to the Warriors in a deal that brought Anfernee Hardaway to Orlando, the Magic`s back-to-back lottery wins prompted the NBA to revise its lottery rules the following season.
Is there a possibility of rules changes this time? It seems improbable, given that the current system was implemented in 2019 after a previous attempt by Commissioner Adam Silver to modify the rules failed. However, it is reasonable to question whether the stated objective of the changes—discouraging tanking—has been achieved, while simultaneously potentially hindering the worst teams` ability to improve significantly.
Nevertheless, some league insiders expressed satisfaction that the teams perceived as deliberately underperforming to maximize their draft odds—specifically the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards—did not manage to secure the top pick.
“The good thing about [lottery night] is those teams didn`t get help,” a scout noted. “Tank all you want, but it doesn`t guarantee you anything.”
One executive suggested to ESPN that a radical way to eliminate tanking would be to abolish the draft entirely, allowing teams instead to use salary cap space to sign incoming rookies. However, even that executive acknowledged this was an unrealistic prospect for numerous reasons, including the value of future draft picks as assets in trades.
The league would also undoubtedly point to teams like Indiana and Denver, which have built competitive rosters without ever picking higher than seventh, as evidence that a top draft pick is not the sole method for establishing a championship contender, even for teams in smaller markets.
Draft lottery grows the conference divide
While Cooper Flagg potentially landing in Dallas was the primary headline, the fact that the Mavericks and Spurs secured the top two picks represents the latest instance of the Western Conference receiving an infusion of elite talent.
Since 2004, when Dwight Howard followed LeBron James as top picks heading to Eastern Conference teams, there has been a consistent stream of perceived generational talents landing in the West, including Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson, Victor Wembanyama, and now Flagg. This doesn`t even account for other high-level players drafted by Western teams who weren`t initially viewed in the same light, such as Anthony Edwards or Luka Doncic himself.
“The West just keeps getting richer,” an executive remarked. “How come everybody keeps going to the West? For the veteran players, you could say it`s better weather, going to California, better organizations. But they`ve also just gotten really lucky.”
“It seems like every time there`s one of these generational talents — Victor, Zion, Anthony Davis — they just end up in the West. It`s just bad luck … it is what it is.”
Although this summer is expected to be particularly active on the transaction front, at least 12 Western Conference teams currently harbor realistic aspirations of competing for home-court advantage in the playoffs next season: the Thunder, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, the Mavericks, and the Spurs.
In stark contrast, the East features Cleveland, New York, and Indiana as potential top teams, followed by significant uncertainty surrounding Boston (Tatum`s injury) and Milwaukee (Lillard`s injury, Antetokounmpo`s situation), and then major questions about the upside and trajectory of nearly every other team in the conference. Imagine, for example, the further imbalance if Giannis Antetokounmpo were to somehow end up on a Western Conference team this summer.
“Cooper Flagg is going to the West for the next 10 years, Giannis could be headed West, Tatum is out of the mix for a year and the Celtics likely are, too,” a scout summarized.
“Good for East teams who are trying to make the Finals,” he concluded, highlighting the potential easier path to the championship series for the remaining contenders in the Eastern Conference due to the reduced competition at the very top.
