The Vegas Golden Knights are fighting to avoid elimination as they prepare to host the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoff conference semifinals on Wednesday. Connor McDavid led the Oilers to a commanding 3-1 series lead after they secured a 3-0 shutout victory over the Knights in Game 4 held in Edmonton on Monday. The puck drops for Game 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Looking at the latest betting odds for the Golden Knights vs. Oilers, Vegas is listed as the favorite on the money line at -127 (bet $127 to win $100), while Edmonton is the underdog at +107 (bet $100 to win $107). The total goals over/under is set at 6.5. The Golden Knights are also favored on the puck line at -1.5 (+187).
According to a reputable sports projection model that simulates every NHL game extensively, here are some predictions for the Golden Knights vs. Oilers matchup:
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (+110)
Despite the presence of elite goal-scorers on both teams, the model leans towards defense and goaltending being key in this crucial game. The total has gone Under in two of Adin Hill`s recent starts at T-Mobile Arena. Additionally, Vegas allowed only 2.41 goals per game at home during the regular season. Edmonton`s goaltender, Stuart Skinner, is coming off a 23-save shutout performance in Game 4. The projection model predicts the Under 6.5 goals will occur in nearly 60% of simulations.
Pick: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
Connor McDavid (No. 97) has recorded four or more shots on goal in four out of his last five games, including consecutive outings with five shots. So far in the playoffs, he has accumulated 40 shots in 10 games, which is more than half the total shots he had during Edmonton`s entire Stanley Cup run last year (75).
