As the NBA playoffs transition towards the second round this Sunday, two crucial Game 7 matchups are set to decide the remaining teams. While the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves quickly advanced from their first-round series, the other two Western Conference pairings have been intensely competitive. The LA Clippers battled back to force a decisive Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets after winning Game 6. Similarly, the Houston Rockets, facing a 3-1 deficit, staged a dramatic comeback to force a decisive Game 7 against the Golden State Warriors by winning Games 5 and 6. The victors of these two contests will proceed to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the next round.
With these pivotal Game 7s approaching, what are the critical elements and potential paths to victory for each of the four teams? Here, our NBA analysts provide insights into the key questions surrounding these decisive matchups.
LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets
How can the Clippers advance?
The Clippers finally utilized a smaller lineup in the second half of Game 6, featuring Nicolas Batum. This adjustment aimed to create better spacing for James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, a move even Nikola Jokic acknowledged as necessary. While coach Tyronn Lue previously favored Kris Dunn`s defense, Batum proved effective on both ends on Thursday. If Batum can maintain this two-way impact, the Clippers possess a winning formula they simply need to execute.
How can the Nuggets advance?
Denver holds an advantage in size and physicality. When they impose their will, they control the series dynamics. This starts with Nikola Jokic. He needs to aggressively attack Clippers center Ivica Zubac, drawing fouls and reasserting himself as the league`s top player. Early physical play and aggression from Jokic open up the offense, allowing explosive options like Jamal Murray, who showcased brilliant shot-making in Game 5, to thrive.
How did we get here?
This series has fully delivered on its promise of competitiveness. Each star player has produced at least one memorable performance: Westbrook in Game 1, Leonard in Game 2, Zubac and Harden in Game 3, Jokic and Aaron Gordon in Game 4, Murray in Game 5, and Harden again in Game 6. Both coaches have excelled at motivating their squads and adapting strategies throughout the series. A key question now is which team has the physical and mental reserves left. Fatigue is a major factor, with several players nursing injuries. The Nuggets have significant Game 7 experience since 2019, while Tyronn Lue boasts an impressive record in elimination games. Both Jokic and Leonard are Finals MVPs. As Jokic put it, “If you like basketball, like a real fan… these are the games you should watch.” This matchup has the makings of a classic.
– Ramona Shelburne
Key factors for Game 7
Player fatigue will be a crucial element to monitor. Jamal Murray has logged the most minutes of any player in the first round, and Nikola Jokic ranks fourth. Two other Nuggets starters, Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, have played more minutes than any Clipper except James Harden. While the Clippers are arguably deeper, Tyronn Lue has had to lean heavily on his stars. Harden, for instance, played the entire second half of Game 6, and fatigue seemed to contribute to the team`s late-game offensive struggles.
Given the fatigue factor, getting off to a strong start is vital. Denver`s early lead in Game 5 allowed interim coach David Adelman to manage Jokic`s minutes and keep him fresh. If the Clippers start strong, Adelman might not have that luxury. When Jokic played the entire second half in Games 2 and 4, he appeared worn down late, which allowed the Clippers to maintain their lead in Game 2 and nearly complete a comeback in Game 4 before Aaron Gordon`s game-winner.
Between the high number of close games, the intensity of play, and the altitude in Denver, this series has taken a significant toll on both rosters. The true beneficiary? The Oklahoma City Thunder, who secured their second-round spot by sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies a week prior. Ultimately, the team with more energy reserves for Game 7 will likely emerge victorious.
– Kevin Pelton
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
How can the Warriors advance?
Golden State`s extensive playoff Game 7 experience should be a major advantage on Sunday. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have participated in five Game 7s, and Jimmy Butler has four to his name, as does coach Steve Kerr. The Warriors must find a way to dismantle Houston`s zone defense and free up Stephen Curry on offense. Curry scored 29 points in Game 6 but only 13 in the second half, struggling from the field. Curry boasts an impressive career average of 32.6 points in Game 7s, fourth-highest in NBA history among players with multiple appearances. He and Green previously won a pivotal Game 7 in Sacramento in 2023, where Curry exploded for 50 points.
Beyond Curry, the Warriors need additional scoring support. A third reliable offensive threat must step up, whether it`s Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, or Moses Moody hitting timely outside shots to break the zone. Draymond Green must perform at a Defensive Player of the Year level. Golden State also needs to minimize turnovers and contain Fred VanVleet. Coach Kerr has stated “everything is on the table” for Game 7, suggesting a potential role for Jonathan Kuminga as a wild card.
– Ohm Youngmisuk
How can the Rockets advance?
Coach Ime Udoka emphasizes playing consistently and making simple, correct plays. Houston has effectively challenged Golden State by utilizing double-big lineups, often incorporating zone looks defensively “out of necessity,” as Udoka explained, to protect specific matchups. Surprisingly, the Rockets have deployed zone defense even with Stephen Curry on the floor. Udoka noted that their activity on the perimeter, combined with communication to track Curry and fill defensive spots, has been key.
Golden State will undoubtedly seek strategies in Game 7 to exploit Houston`s schemes when Curry is guarded by the zone. The Rockets must continue to assert their physicality against the older, more injured Warriors team, while dominating in paint scoring and securing second-chance points. Udoka`s team prioritizes turning defense into offense, which fuels their fast break. In Game 6, Houston scored 22 points off 17 Golden State turnovers. Players like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green will be vital for generating transition points.
– Michael C. Wright
How did they get here?
The Warriors took Game 1 in Houston, winning a physical, defensive battle that Steve Kerr likened to a 1997 game. Stephen Curry scored 31 points, and Jimmy Butler had a vintage “Playoff Jimmy” performance. However, Houston responded with a dominant 109-94 win in Game 2, highlighted by Jalen Green`s 38 points. Butler was unfortunately limited to just eight minutes after sustaining a painful glute contusion. Butler missed Game 3, but the Warriors secured a 104-93 home victory behind 36 points from Curry. Golden State then took a seemingly commanding 3-1 lead in Game 4, where Butler scored 14 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter and grabbed a crucial rebound late in the game after Draymond Green`s defense forced a miss.
The Rockets, however, delivered a resounding defeat in Game 5, leading by as many as 31 points before the Warriors pulled their starters. In Game 6, Golden State failed to clinch the series at home, shooting poorly in the fourth quarter and allowing Houston a decisive 20-5 run. The Rockets` zone defense has successfully disrupted Golden State`s offense and neutralized Curry at times, pushing the series to a Game 7.
– Ohm Youngmisuk
Key factors for Game 7
Houston`s effective use of double-big lineups featuring Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun has been a defining aspect of this series. Golden State managed to win Game 4 despite being significantly outscored when Adams and Sengun shared the court. In Game 5, this pairing was highly effective. Game 6 saw the double-bigs play almost the entire fourth quarter, proving to be a plus-nine advantage for Houston. Coach Udoka didn`t hesitate even when Steve Kerr intentionally fouled Adams, who made 9 of 16 free throws on these intentional fouls. With Sengun rebounding two misses, the Rockets generated 13 points on eight possessions from this strategy, resulting in an excellent offensive rating.
Part of the difficulty for the Warriors is that Adams and Sengun allow Houston to employ a hybrid defense that constantly pressures Stephen Curry. Despite this, Curry still scored 29 points in Game 6, hitting six three-pointers, but he also shot just 9-of-23 overall and committed five turnovers. While Udoka has successfully experimented with new lineup combinations, the Warriors coaching staff seems to be struggling to find their optimal five-man unit. Starting Gary Payton II in Game 6 aimed to improve perimeter defense on Fred VanVleet, but Payton isn`t a significant three-point threat, unlike Brandin Podziemski. Besides Curry, Golden State`s other four starters combined to shoot just 3-of-18 from beyond the arc.
– Kevin Pelton
