In the NBA playoffs, success often comes down to how specific matchups play out, both between entire teams and individual players. Teams built on size might struggle against a smaller, quicker opponent adept at scoring from beyond the arc. Similarly, a guard who excels in transition could find themselves forced into a slower, half-court game.
Which individual and strategic confrontations are proving most pivotal in the first round? While top seeds like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers dominated their matchups en route to sweeps, the remaining series are far from decided. Look at the back-and-forth battle between the Nuggets and Clippers, the tight finishes in Knicks-Pistons games, and the potential upset brewing in Lakers-Timberwolves.
Let`s analyze the key individual battles and strategic dynamics that are having the biggest impact in the six series still underway, starting in New York, where the Clutch Player of the Year is proving his worth.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Series: Knicks lead 3-1 | Game 5: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Jalen Brunson against the defense of Ausar Thompson and Dennis Schroder.
A standout feature of this series, especially in clutch moments, has been Brunson`s ability to quickly generate offense. The primary defender assigned to the Knicks` leader has been Ausar Thompson, a persistent second-year wing at 6`6″ (compared to Brunson`s 6`2″). Thompson has made things difficult for Brunson early in games, limiting him to 39% shooting and 23 points on 23 attempts in first quarters. However, Thompson`s aggressive approach has led to foul trouble and turnovers (11 turnovers versus just five assists). Due to fouls and offensive struggles, Pistons coach JB Bickerstaff has frequently opted to finish games with Schroder defending Brunson.
Schroder offers advantages, including significant postseason experience and hitting the decisive three-pointer in Game 3. His ball handling and outside shooting are also assets Thompson lacks. Yet, Brunson has found it considerably easier to score when guarded by Schroder than by the longer Thompson. Brunson, who scored 15 points in the fourth quarter after returning from an ankle issue, is currently on a historic clutch scoring run. If this trend continues, his average of 13.3 points per fourth quarter would be the highest in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97), according to research.
Given Brunson`s late-game success and how close each game has been, Bickerstaff may need to reconsider who is tasked with guarding the Knicks` All-Star point guard in the critical fourth quarter.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Series: Pacers lead 3-1 | Game 5: Tuesday, 6 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. everyone else.
Only Paolo Banchero, who has support from an All-Star level teammate in Franz Wagner, has a higher postseason usage rate than Giannis Antetokounmpo`s 35.9% so far. This high usage is clearly necessary, especially with Damian Lillard suffering a severe Achilles injury in Game 4 and recent addition Kyle Kuzma providing minimal offense for the Bucks, averaging just six points per game on 33% shooting.
It`s difficult to feel optimistic about Antetokounmpo`s prospects as he`s forced to push against the Pacers` packed-in defense. Indiana can afford to build a “wall” because the rest of the Bucks roster presents such a limited playmaking threat.
More significantly, beyond Lillard`s injury, the Bucks` downfall appears to be less about their offense and more about their complete inability to slow down Indiana`s potent attack.
How wide open were the Pacers in Game 4? Indiana racked up an astounding 80 points from uncontested shots in their comfortable victory, the most ever in a playoff game since this statistic was first tracked in the 2013-14 season. Eight different Pacers players scored at least 12 points, matching an NBA playoff record.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Series: Celtics lead 3-1 | Game 5: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Orlando`s physical defense.
It hasn`t been the most aesthetically pleasing series for Boston`s 7-foot-3 big man. He even suffered a cut to his forehead from Magic center Goga Bitadze`s elbow during a scramble for a rebound in Game 2.
Aside from that moment, it`s clear that Orlando`s defense is significantly impacting his shooting efficiency. Porzingis has connected on just 14% (2-for-14) from three-point range and a dismal 23% (3-for-13) from the non-restricted paint area, where he often attempts post-up shots. During the regular season, Porzingis was the most efficient player with at least 100 post-up possessions, according to advanced stats.
Getting Porzingis, typically an excellent shooter, back on track will be vital for Boston in the next round, particularly if they face the Knicks, who have struggled all season defending big men who can stretch the floor to the perimeter. (Porzingis himself hit eight three-pointers in a win against New York earlier this month, including an overtime game-winner.)
Recognizing the need to help Porzingis break out of his slump, coach Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics intelligently shifted their offensive focus in a low-pressure way that caught the Magic off guard.
Orlando has been tenacious in shutting down the three-point line in this series. They are holding the league`s most prolific three-point shooting team to just 33.0 attempts per game, a significant drop from Boston`s NBA-record 48.2 attempts during the regular season.
Boston countered this tight perimeter defense by having Porzingis cut towards the basket after setting screens instead of popping out to the arc. These first-quarter adjustments in Game 4 resulted in two dunks for Porzingis. It might not be a coincidence that he then hit his only two three-pointers of the series later in that same game, which was easily his most effective performance so far.
Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers
Series: Tied 2-2 | Game 5: Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers help defenders (and rebounders).
The dramatic final play in Game 4, where Denver`s three-time MVP missed a deep shot only for Aaron Gordon to tip in the rebound just as time expired, perfectly illustrates the dilemma the Clippers face.
On that particular play, Clippers center Ivica Zubac defended Jokic exceptionally well individually, forcing the miss. Kawhi Leonard, a two-time Finals MVP, also made a great read, doubling Jokic at seemingly the perfect moment. However, this meant LA`s two best rebounders were stuck watching the game`s decisive play from 26 feet away.
Jokic`s brilliance has a mesmerizing effect on defenses. One clear sign of LA`s defensive attention being divided: The Clippers, who led the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage during the regular season (73.4%), currently have the second-worst defensive rebounding mark in these playoffs (47.2%). Often in this series, the Clippers manage to get the initial stop but struggle to complete the defensive possession by securing the rebound.
“You pay a lot of attention to [Jokic] and you kind of lose sight of all the other guys and things that you want to take away,” Clippers coach Tyronn Lue commented. “So there`s slippage with how we want to guard certain players and what we want to do.”
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Series: Warriors lead 3-1 | Game 5: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Draymond Green vs. Alperen Sengun.
While many players could be highlighted, such as Jalen Green`s inconsistent play, Brandin Podziemski`s significant impact as a ball handler for Golden State, or even Rockets big man Steven Adams, whose positive impact in Game 4 (+16) prompted Steve Kerr to use “Hack-a-Shaq” tactics against him, forcing coach Ime Udoka to remove Adams from the game.
However, focusing on any other players or matchups would overlook the fundamental importance of the duel between Green and Sengun.
The Rockets` chance to potentially tie the series in Game 4 ultimately hinged on this specific pairing. All-Star big man Sengun attempted a floater over the outstretched arm of the former Defensive Player of the Year. The shot missed off the rim and was secured by Jimmy Butler III, triggering a major celebration at Chase Center, led by Green himself.
Their battle has been highly physical throughout the series. It`s notable that while Sengun was dominant in Game 5 (31 points, 10 rebounds, five assists), much of his success against the Warriors occurred during the time Green was sidelined with five fouls. This context made Green`s game-ending defensive stop against Sengun particularly impressive, both because of the critical time left and the risk of fouling out in a potentially overtime game.
This key play was symbolic of how the past three games have unfolded between the star big men. After scoring 17 points and averaging 1.21 points per play against Green as his primary defender in Game 1, Sengun has managed only 14 points and 0.53 points per play against Green in Games 2 through 4, according to research.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Series: Timberwolves lead 3-1 | Game 5: Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET
Crucial Matchup: Luka Doncic vs. Driving Timberwolves players.
No team has attacked a specific defender as persistently as the Timberwolves have targeted Doncic.
Through the first four games, Minnesota has driven at Doncic 60 times, the highest number against any player in this postseason. In Game 4, the Wolves attacked him 15 separate times, generating a significant 109 points per 100 possessions on those plays.
This was a simple yet intelligent offensive strategy for the Wolves, especially in the fourth quarter of Game 4. Wolves star Anthony Edwards observed the Lakers looked “gassed” after all five of their starters played the entire second half. Edwards scored 43 points, but he also leveraged his scoring threat to draw Doncic and other defenders late in possessions before passing to open teammates for easy baskets. (His final field goal came with 7:42 left in the fourth.)
For instance, with six and a half minutes remaining, Doncic lunged at Edwards from the right wing, leaving Jaden McDaniels wide open on the weak side. Edwards delivered a bounce pass, allowing McDaniels to drive and finish off the glass over Lakers guard Austin Reaves.
Targeting Doncic proved highly effective for the Celtics in last season`s NBA Finals. It not only created scoring opportunities for Boston but also likely reduced Doncic`s energy for the offensive end, where he is exceptionally dangerous with the ball. While Mavericks GM Nico Harrison has repeatedly stated that “Defense wins championships” when discussing personnel decisions, the Timberwolves are doing their utmost to exploit Doncic`s defensive limitations in their own pursuit of a championship.
