Game 6 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs conference semifinals sees the Dallas Stars hosting the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday. Dallas held a strong 3-1 series lead, but Winnipeg forced a Game 6 by securing a 4-0 win at home in Game 5. The puck drops at American Airlines Center in Dallas at 8 p.m. ET.
According to the latest odds, Dallas is the favorite at -155 on the money line, with Winnipeg listed as the underdog at +130. The total goals line is set at 5.5, and the Stars have a puck line of -1.5 with odds of +165.
A leading sports projection model, which simulates each NHL game 10,000 times, has offered its predictions. This model has performed well in the 2025 NHL playoffs, holding a combined 79-55 record on top-rated puck-line and over/under picks by the second week of the conference semifinals, yielding over $1,600 in profit for players betting $100.
Here are some of the model`s top recommendations for the Stars vs. Jets Game 6 matchup:
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Goals (-105)
While the last two games in the series finished under the total, the model expects a different outcome in Game 6. Despite Connor Hellebuyck`s shutout in Game 5, his road playoff record is concerning at 0-5 with a 5.84 goals-against average. Conversely, the Stars have been potent offensively at home, scoring three or more goals in their last five home playoff contests, including a 5-2 win in Game 3. The projection model predicts the total exceeding 5.5 goals in over half of simulations.
Pick: Kyle Connor to Record 2+ Points (+195)
After a stellar first round, Kyle Connor`s scoring pace slowed slightly but has picked up again recently, with four points in his last three appearances. Notably, he scored in Game 3 in Dallas and took seven shots. He currently has 16 points (five goals, 11 assists) through 12 playoff games.
Pick: Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 Points (+165)
Mikko Rantanen did not register a point in Game 5, which might explain the favorable odds for this prop bet. However, Rantanen leads all players in the playoffs with 19 points (nine goals, 10 assists) in 12 games. He has also surpassed the 1.5-point mark in three of his previous four home playoff games.
