A recent game between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors, intended to be a home win opportunity for the Jazz against a weaker team, instead showcased the issue of NBA tanking. Despite Jazz star Lauri Markkanen returning, the game devolved into a fourth quarter dominated by inexperienced players. Markkanen was sidelined for the second half, and Toronto`s key veterans played minimally in the final quarter.
As the game reached its climax, both teams fielded lineups heavily featuring rookies and reserves, with only one player averaging double-digit scores. The Raptors won, extending the Jazz`s losing streak and pushing Utah closer to a bottom-three record, which improves their odds in the NBA draft lottery.
Towards the end of each NBA season, two races emerge: one for playoff spots and another for better draft lottery odds. This season, the pursuit of top draft picks is intensified by the presence of a highly touted prospect, Cooper Flagg, and several teams, including the Jazz, Raptors, Wizards, 76ers, Spurs, and Pelicans, who are underperforming due to various reasons like injuries.
Despite efforts to discourage star players from sitting out games, tanking remains a persistent problem. NBA insiders are considering new strategies to counter this practice as teams find innovative ways to accumulate losses late in the season.
One NBA executive commented, “These next few weeks could represent the most extreme period of tanking we`ve ever witnessed.”
Why NBA Teams Engage in Tanking
Those involved in the annual race to the bottom acknowledge its unpleasant nature. Intentionally trying to lose is not a typical franchise goal. However, securing a high draft pick is widely seen as the most reliable path to future success. This perspective is not expected to change soon.
Evan Wasch, NBA`s VP of Strategy and Analytics, stated, “Philosophically, there`s no significant movement to change the draft philosophy, which is to allocate top picks to teams most in need of talent. This is a core principle of our draft system.”
The current system, last modified in 2019, uses a lottery to distribute top draft picks, giving the three teams with the worst records a 14% chance at the top pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-four pick. The team with the “best” record among lottery teams has significantly lower odds.
The lottery exists because historically, securing a high draft pick is the most direct way to acquire a transformative player. Looking back 45 years, only five championship teams weren`t led by a player who had won or would win the MVP award. The vast majority of champions were built around elite players, many of whom were high draft picks. Specifically, many were top overall picks, and very few were drafted outside the top seven.
Even considering teams that won titles without an MVP-caliber player, most still featured players drafted high. This historical trend underscores why NBA teams tank, and this season is no exception.
Tanking Strategies This Season
The NBA`s “player participation policy,” aimed at preventing healthy star players from resting, indirectly affects tanking teams. It requires lottery-bound teams to have legitimate reasons for sidelining star players.
The Jazz were recently fined $100,000 for resting Markkanen against the Wizards. While a minor penalty, escalating fines are pushing teams to find alternative tanking methods. In the game against Toronto, the Jazz`s limited use of Markkanen exemplified a strategy also employed by the Raptors: benching key players during crucial game moments.
Since the All-Star break, Toronto has played a significant amount of “clutch” minutes (close game situations) but has disproportionately given these minutes to less experienced players rather than their leading scorers. Similarly, the Jazz have significantly reduced Markkanen`s clutch minutes and have been cautious about playing him against other lottery-bound teams.
Jazz coach Will Hardy defended his team`s approach, stating that despite rebuilding, the team`s young players compete hard and provide fans with an enjoyable, energetic style of play.
NBA executive Wasch indicated that while player availability is monitored, the league does not intend to police coaching decisions regarding player rotations, suggesting that teams are free to choose who plays in key moments.
Cooper Flagg: A Generational Prospect Fueling Tanking
Entering the college basketball season, Cooper Flagg`s status as the top prospect for the 2025 NBA draft was debated against other talents like Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, and VJ Edgecombe.
However, Flagg`s outstanding performance in college has solidified his position. NBA scouts now consider him among the highest-potential No. 1 picks in recent years.
A scout noted Flagg`s exceptional combination of youth and high-level production across all aspects of the game against top competition.
Analytics experts rank Flagg highly among No. 1 picks since 2005, in terms of projected wins above replacement player (WARP), placing him near Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson, both of whom triggered intense tanking races.
Statistical projections emphasize a prospect`s production relative to age, where Flagg excels. His youth, combined with his dominant play, explains why teams are aggressively positioning themselves to draft him.
Potential Solutions to Curb Tanking
The NBA is open to adjustments but changes take time. Possible anti-tanking measures being discussed include:
- Further Flattening Lottery Odds: Similar to past adjustments, making the odds for top picks more uniform across lottery teams could reduce the incentive to tank for the very top pick. However, it might also lessen the motivation to compete for playoff contention for some teams.
- Rewarding Wins Post-All-Star Break: Instead of rewarding losses for draft position, the NBA could consider using wins in the second half of the season to determine lottery odds. This would incentivize teams to compete and develop players even if out of playoff contention. An example shows how this could have shifted lottery standings in the previous season.
- Revising Pick Protections: Removing or simplifying pick protections (beyond top-4 or lottery protected) could eliminate scenarios where teams tank specifically to keep a protected pick, as seen in recent examples.
- Lottery Order Based on Head-to-Head Records Among Lottery Teams: Ranking lottery teams based on their records against each other could encourage competition within this group. However, it might inadvertently incentivize teams near the play-in line to tank for better draft odds.
- Stricter Enforcement of Current Rules: Some argue that enforcing existing rules against resting healthy players would be sufficient to mitigate tanking without further system changes.
While securing a top draft pick remains a primary goal for struggling teams, the NBA has already implemented measures to address tanking, such as lottery adjustments and the play-in tournament. Discussions about further adjustments are expected to continue within the league`s competition committee.
