The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has delivered exciting games, including contests decided in overtime and dramatic fourth-quarter rallies.
Surprisingly, the higher seeds in the conference semifinals all lost their opening Game 1 matchups. However, the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves have since recovered.
The intensity is high, and with key players like Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined by injuries, the outcome of these series remains unpredictable.
Following a second round that began with upsets and saw teams trading wins, our NBA experts analyze the key insights, players facing scrutiny, and pivotal factors determining who advances to the conference finals.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Which player faces the most pressure in Monday`s critical Game 4?
While Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown might seem like the obvious answers given their shooting struggles (Brown is particularly poor from three), the Celtics have other contributors and a strong track record. The New York Knicks, however, desperately need a standout performance from their All-Star guard, Jalen Brunson. His clutch reputation is well-earned, but Boston`s defenders, especially Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, have significantly impacted him. Brunson is shooting just 38% in the series and getting to the free-throw line far less than in the previous round. With the Knicks averaging only 95 points in regulation and shooting poorly overall, and facing strategic fouling tactics against Mitchell Robinson, Brunson`s ability to overcome the defensive pressure is paramount.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
This series will reach Game 7 if…
Nikola Jokic can regain his shooting form in one of the upcoming games. The three-time MVP is currently in a remarkable slump, shooting under 40% from the field in three consecutive games with at least 15 attempts – a first in his career in either the regular season or playoffs. During this stretch, Jokic shot 33.3% and has recorded more turnovers than assists in the series. While Oklahoma City`s top-rated defense deserves credit for challenging Jokic, his ability to break out of this funk will be crucial for the Nuggets` chances of forcing a decisive seventh game.
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
What is the Wolves` biggest vulnerability, and how can the Warriors exploit it without Stephen Curry?
As one of the few teams ranking in the top 10 for both offense and defense in the regular season, Minnesota has few major weaknesses, supported by their strong record since March. However, they haven`t always been as careful with ball security as expected for a top team. Even leading the series 2-1, the Wolves have committed more turnovers than the Warriors in two of three games, including 21 in Game 3. Despite this, Golden State only managed 13 points from those turnovers in Game 3, fewer than Minnesota scored off Warriors` mistakes. If the Warriors can maintain defensive pressure on Wolves ball handlers through players like Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, and Jonathan Kuminga, and improve their transition offense after forcing turnovers, they might steal another win to extend the series, potentially allowing Stephen Curry time to recover from his left hamstring injury for a possible Game 6 return.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs can recover in this series if they…
Can rediscover their high-powered offense from the regular season. Cleveland boasted the league`s top offensive rating, but outside of Donovan Mitchell, their offense has struggled throughout this series, culminating in a decisive Game 4 loss that put them on the verge of elimination. In the first half of that game, the Cavaliers scored just 39 points, recorded only three assists, and committed 14 turnovers. Compounding matters, Mitchell, who has been scoring at a pace not seen for a Cavs player in the playoffs since LeBron James, did not play in the second half due to an ankle injury.
Bonus Question!
What has been the biggest surprise of the second round so far?
For the first time in NBA history, three teams posted a point differential of plus-9 or better per game. These same teams—the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics—then dominated the first round, going a combined 12-1 against weaker opponents. They seemed destined for deep playoff runs, potentially meeting in the conference finals or NBA Finals.
Therefore, despite considering the impact of injuries and shooting variance, it`s a significant surprise that this trio is collectively struggling in the second round. The three top regular-season teams are a combined 4-7 against Denver, Indiana, and New York in these playoffs. While these favored teams might still advance as predicted, the unexpected competitiveness and parity have resulted in more engaging games and a more compelling round overall.
My NBA Finals picks are:
Even though both teams were trailing 2-1 as of Sunday morning, I`m sticking with the Celtics and the Thunder. Boston`s strong performance in Game 3 highlighted their favorable matchups against the Knicks when their three-point shooting is on form. The Celtics would undoubtedly be favored if they reach the Eastern Conference finals. In the Western Conference, Minnesota appears to be the most likely team to reach the conference finals and has matched up well against Oklahoma City this season. Nevertheless, the Thunder hold home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which makes them the favorites to emerge from the West.
