Rivals from the Central Division, the Dallas Stars, led by Jamie Benn, will host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche in the opening game of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Saturday. This first-round matchup is a rematch from the 2024 NHL playoffs` second round, where the Stars emerged victorious in six games. Dallas concluded the 2025 regular season ahead of Colorado by four points in the NHL standings but enters the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The Avalanche, who won two out of three regular-season encounters against the Stars, have lost three of their last five games. A key absence for the Stars is forward Jason Robertson, sidelined week-to-week with a lower body injury, making him unavailable for Game 1.
The puck drop is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. According to the latest odds, Colorado is favored with a -134 money line, while Dallas is the underdog at +112. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5. It is recommended to consult predictions from advanced models before making any bets on this Avalanche vs. Stars game.
Statistical models are used to simulate each NHL game thousands of times to generate predictions. These models have shown profitability in the past NHL regular season, particularly with top-rated picks for puck-line and over/under bets.
Stars favored to win as home underdogs
While Robertson`s injury contributes to Colorado being favored, models suggest betting value on Dallas as the home underdog. The Stars had a strong home record of 28-13 this season and were profitable on the money line at home. Dallas also holds an advantage in net with playoff experience. Colorado`s goalie, Mackenzie Blackwood, is set for his playoff debut, whereas Dallas`s Jake Oettinger has 47 postseason appearances and a solid 2.46 goals against average in the playoffs. Predictive models estimate Dallas has a 53% chance of winning.
Nathan MacKinnon as Anytime Goalscorer
MacKinnon, a dynamic center, concluded the regular season with 32 goals, including eight against Central Division opponents. Although he didn`t score against Dallas in the regular season, he scored a crucial game-tying goal in Game 1 last year, which Colorado eventually won in overtime. Models indicate he has nearly a 50% probability of scoring in this game, which is higher than implied by current prop odds.
Over 5.5 goals expected
The `Over` bet was successful in all three regular-season games between these teams, including a 4-3 overtime victory for the Avalanche in their most recent matchup on March 16. Colorado has also scored four goals in each of their last two games. Models predict a combined total of 6.3 goals, with the `Over` bet hitting nearly 60% of the time.
