The NBA offseason has kicked off with its characteristic flurry of activity, just three days into the official free agency period and a week after the draft. We`ve already witnessed significant nine-figure contracts, surprising trades, and star players navigating dramatic situations.
To help make sense of the early chaos, let`s identify the biggest winners and losers from the summer so far. It`s worth noting that the offseason is far from over, and more major moves could still occur, potentially altering these early designations, much like the trades involving Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns in previous years didn`t happen until late in the summer.
For now, here are the teams, prevailing trends, and key transactions that have had the most significant impact. We begin by highlighting the team that appears to be the clearest winner of the 2025 offseason.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Regardless of any subsequent moves, the Houston Rockets would have emerged as offseason winners based solely on the Kevin Durant trade. The team secured a perfect solution to their primary weakness by acquiring Durant, without sacrificing any of their top young talents or future draft picks in the process.
However, the Rockets didn`t stop there. They also added Dorian Finney-Smith on a four-year, $53 million contract, brought Clint Capela back on a three-year, $21.5 million deal, renegotiated Fred VanVleet`s contract to be more cap-friendly, signed Jabari Smith Jr. to a sensible extension, and retained Jae`Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday, and Jeff Green to fill out the roster depth.
The outcome of these transactions is a deep and versatile roster capable of winning games in numerous ways: through strong defense, rebounding, size, physicality, blending youth with experience, and leveraging Durant`s elite scoring ability. The Rockets are now positioned to compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the title of the league`s deepest team.
Moreover, the Rockets are now expected to challenge the Thunder for Western Conference supremacy. Houston looks like the second-best team in the West, making them the most significant threat to Oklahoma City`s bid for a potential third consecutive championship, following the Warriors` feat in 2017 and 2018.
While this roster isn`t flawless, it has minor concerns. Houston will be heavily reliant on Fred VanVleet, now in his 30s and potentially past his prime, due to a lack of proven backcourt depth. A significant second-year jump from third pick Reed Sheppard, who averaged only 4.4 points in limited minutes as a rookie, would be crucial for Houston`s guard rotation. The frontcourt rotation could also become complicated with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, potentially leading to difficult decisions regarding playing time for effective two-center lineups.
However, these are minor issues given the overall strength of the roster. The Rockets expertly managed their salary cap, replaced Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith – who may not be the same level of point-of-attack defender as Brooks, but this is less critical with Amen Thompson and Tari Eason on the team – and upgraded significantly from the inefficient Jalen Green to Kevin Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. This series of moves defines winning the offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
From the moment the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in a surprising blockbuster trade, their immediate need for a center became glaringly obvious. They had lost their starting center, Anthony Davis, in the Doncic deal, and Doncic`s game thrives with a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, as seen with Daniel Gafford`s success in Dallas and Dereck Lively II`s impact as a rookie alongside him.
Therefore, it was unsurprising that the Lakers initially agreed to trade for a young, athletic center right after the Doncic acquisition. However, when the Mark Williams trade fell through due to a failed physical, the Lakers were left with their existing options. Jaxson Hayes started four playoff games but clearly lacked trust from coach JJ Redick, playing minimal minutes before being benched in favor of a small-ball approach in their final loss.
Following their disappointing playoff exit, the Lakers` top priority for the summer seemed clear. Yet, within days of the free agency period opening, their primary targets at center signed elsewhere. This left them with Deandre Ayton, who became unexpectedly available after a buyout agreement with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Ayton doesn`t appear to be an ideal short-term fit for a team aiming for a championship, nor is he a long-term partner for Doncic. The 2018 first overall pick – notably selected two spots ahead of Doncic – lacks the skills of both a rim runner and a floor spacer, and his performance seems to have peaked several years ago. Despite impressive box score statistics, advanced analytics consistently rate Ayton as a below-average NBA player.
Furthermore, Ayton`s two-year contract with a player option offers little upside for the team. If he performs well in the first year, he`s likely to opt out, while if he fails to gain Redick`s favor, he remains on the team`s payroll for a second season.
This situation is particularly risky as the Lakers navigate managing LeBron James` apparent dissatisfaction and attempt to convince Luka Doncic to sign a long-term extension later this summer. Currently, there is little about the roster that would strongly encourage his commitment. The Lakers have an unbalanced rotation, heavy on power forwards like Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and James himself, but lacking reliable centers. Their only other notable move aside from signing Ayton was replacing Dorian Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: The Trend of Big-Man Depth
One major factor contributing to the Lakers` difficulties in finding a center is that many desirable options were quickly signed elsewhere. A prominent theme of the offseason`s first week has been teams prioritizing and doubling down on acquiring big men, even if they seemingly had adequate depth at the position already.
The Houston Rockets signed Clint Capela despite having Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. The San Antonio Spurs acquired Luke Kornet even with Victor Wembanyama on the roster. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas to provide the best backup Nikola Jokic has had in years. The LA Clippers added Brook Lopez to support Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to join Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to share minutes with promising young center Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks added Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.
The emphasis on building depth and enabling potential double-big lineups was also evident on draft night. Two Western Conference teams that missed the playoffs established long-term big man duos: the Portland Trail Blazers drafted 7-foot-1 prospect Yang Hansen to pair with their 7-foot-2 second-year center Donovan Clingan, while the Phoenix Suns quickly traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the first center selected.
Other contenders also invested heavily to retain their established big man rotations. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million; adding Rudy Gobert`s extension, the Timberwolves have committed $334.5 million to their frontcourt players, even after trading Karl-Anthony Towns. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama for a combined $292.5 million.
Furthermore, after the Oklahoma City Thunder won a title starting Isaiah Hartenstein – a significant free agent addition last summer – alongside Chet Holmgren, they extended their third big man, Jaylin Williams, this week. The Dallas Mavericks have also leaned into larger lineups since trading for Anthony Davis; until Kyrie Irving returns from injury, their top five players are essentially all natural power forwards or centers: Davis, the newly extended Gafford, Lively, P.J. Washington, and No. 1 overall draft pick Cooper Flagg.
This league-wide shift towards big men could create fascinating stylistic contrasts with the few teams not following this trend, such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. However, collectively, these transactions send a clear message: After a decade where small-ball gained prominence, big men are definitively back in vogue – and this applies not just to MVP-caliber players like Jokic and Joel Embiid, but to players across all levels, provided they possess the necessary size and skills for contemporary schemes.
Loser: Opponents Trying to Score Inside Against the Spurs
A revealing statistic highlights the defensive impact of one of the new big man pairings. According to GeniusIQ tracking, among 166 players who defended at least 300 shot attempts within 5 feet over the past two seasons, Luke Kornet (52.2%) ranks fifth and Victor Wembanyama (52.3%) ranks sixth in lowest field goal percentage allowed.
Luke Kornet was a player I highlighted as an underrated free agent target, and the Spurs clearly recognized his value, signing the veteran center to a four-year, $41 million contract. He provides excellent depth and will serve as a strong backup behind Wembanyama. However, their potential to play together shouldn`t be overlooked; lineups featuring both Wembanyama and Kornet shouldn`t feel too crowded offensively, especially since Wembanyama prefers to operate from the perimeter, and defensively, they could form a devastating duo.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For several years, the Denver Nuggets` starting lineup has consistently been among the league`s elite. Last season was no different, even with Christian Braun stepping into the starting unit after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope`s departure. That starting five boasted an impressive net rating of plus-10.6 in the regular season and climbed to plus-11.3 in the playoffs. Even against the formidable Thunder in the second round, that specific lineup performed strongly with a plus-10.3 net rating per 100 possessions.
Yet, this success didn`t prevent the first significant change to Denver`s long-standing core, which had been largely intact since before their 2022-23 championship run. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick for Cam Johnson. Johnson is an excellent fit for Denver`s offensive system, known as a high-volume, knockdown shooter (39% from three for his career). While he lacks Porter`s size, he offers more dynamic off-the-dribble ability.
Crucially, the financial savings from swapping Porter for Johnson – as Porter is set to earn approximately $17 million more than Johnson next season – provided the Nuggets with the necessary salary flexibility to make further roster enhancements.
First, they brought back Bruce Brown Jr., another player I identified as an underrated free agent target, who has a proven track record of thriving alongside Nikola Jokic. Then, they traded Dario Saric, who appeared in only 16 games for Denver last season (none in the playoffs) after an ill-advised free agent signing, for Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is an overqualified backup center who averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, consistent with his peak performance levels.
This move addresses a key weakness; Denver should no longer see a significant drop-off when Jokic rests, a problem often exacerbated by previous backup options like Zeke Nnaji and a veteran DeAndre Jordan.
Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a reliable and willing shooter (36% from three for his career), who, along with Cam Johnson, should help boost the Nuggets` three-point attempt rate, which ranked 30th last season.
In essence, the Nuggets lost two players from last season`s playoff rotation, Porter and Russell Westbrook. However, they successfully added four players capable of contributing to the rotation. Denver should now comfortably have a nine or ten-player deep rotation, featuring a projected starting five alongside key bench pieces like Peyton Watson and potentially a leap from a younger player such as Julian Strawther.
The Nuggets came closer than any other Western Conference team to dethroning the Thunder this past spring. Now, their roster for the 2025-26 season appears significantly improved compared to the 2024-25 version.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
To be fair to the Milwaukee Bucks, their placement in the “Loser” category is less about specific moves made this week and more a reflection of a challenging two-year period for the organization. This difficult stretch began with the hiring of short-lived coach Adrian Griffin and the trade for Damian Lillard, culminating this Tuesday with the team waiving Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million on his contract.
The Bucks found themselves in an unenviable position once Lillard suffered a ruptured Achilles in April. Their asset cupboard is relatively bare outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo: they lack significant young talent, control over their future draft picks, and financial flexibility to meaningfully upgrade the roster around their two-time MVP. While they did manage to create some short-term cap space by stretching Lillard`s deal and trading Pat Connaughton, which allowed them to acquire center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers – a valuable addition – this came at a substantial long-term cost.
Damian Lillard`s stretched contract will now count approximately $22.5 million against the Bucks` salary cap for each of the next five seasons. For context, $22.5 million is comparable to the annual salary Cam Johnson will earn in upcoming seasons. (It`s also similar to what Kyle Kuzma will earn over the next couple of years, highlighting that the Bucks effectively have two significant cap charges representing areas of roster need.)
This financial commitment might be justifiable if the Bucks were clear contenders for the 2025-26 championship. However, even with fringe contenders in the Eastern Conference seeing potential, and despite Myles Turner being a younger replacement for Brook Lopez alongside Antetokounmpo, it`s difficult to envision a team starting Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard, and possessing a perimeter defense as leaky as Milwaukee`s, realistically competing for a title.
Milwaukee`s front office deserves credit for its bold approach in pursuing win-now moves to maximize Antetokounmpo`s prime years, starting with the trade that brought Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee and eventually led to a championship. However, boldness alone isn`t sufficient to secure more playoff victories; only acquiring and retaining high-quality NBA players can achieve that. And even after the significant moves this week, the Bucks still appear to lack the necessary depth of talent.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Teams led by smaller point guards face an inherent challenge advancing deep into the playoffs, as their primary offensive engine can often be targeted defensively. The most effective strategy to mitigate this is the model successfully employed by the Indiana Pacers, who surrounded Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at nearly every other position on their way to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
The Atlanta Hawks are actively attempting to replicate this approach, and they have dedicated the past two offseasons to building a more formidable defensive roster around their star point guard, Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis. While an injury risk, Porzingis undeniably raises the team`s ceiling and was available because the Boston Celtics were looking to shed salaries. In that same transaction, the Hawks also offloaded Terance Mann`s unfavorable contract – which they arguably should not have acquired at the previous trade deadline – at the cost of a late first-round pick. Atlanta also emerged victorious in the pursuit of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and replaced Caris LeVert, who departed for Detroit, with Luke Kennard, who holds the highest active career three-point percentage (43.8%).
Atlanta`s revamped rotation now surrounds Trae Young with players like Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels; long, athletic wings in Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, and the 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher; and capable defensive centers in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks have not finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th during Young`s tenure, but provided they avoid excessive minutes with a Young-Kennard backcourt pairing, they have a legitimate chance to be an above-average defensive team this season.
Crucially, none of these transactions are even the Hawks` best move of the offseason. That distinction belongs to the absolute heist Atlanta pulled on draft night, charging the New Orleans Pelicans an exorbitant price to move up just 10 spots, from pick No. 23 to No. 13. Yet, the Pelicans paid it. As a result, the Hawks now hold the unprotected rights to the more favorable first-round pick between the Pelicans and the Milwaukee Bucks in next summer`s draft.
Given the Bucks` ongoing uncertainty and the Pelicans` potentially weak standing in a challenging Western Conference, that future pick is strongly favored to land in the lottery. For context, on standard draft value charts, the difference in value between the 13th and 23rd pick is roughly equivalent to the 28th overall pick, meaning the Hawks are almost certain to win this trade significantly.
Forget their recent pattern of settling for play-in tournament berths; in a wide-open Eastern Conference, with these significant upgrades, the Hawks could conceivably challenge for a top-four seed next season. The only minor negative mark against Atlanta`s otherwise stellar summer is losing Larry Nance Jr., who proved to be a sneakily effective bench upgrade for Cleveland.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Atlanta Hawks` major win this offseason stems significantly from their draft-day fleecing, the team on the other end of that transaction, the New Orleans Pelicans, must logically appear on the losers` side. This move appeared to be a baffling decision by a new front office, led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, that seemed to drastically misjudge the team`s current competitive status and the composition of its roster.
The Pelicans finished 14th in the Western Conference last season. While they are highly likely to improve upon their 21-61 record with better health in the 2025-26 season, it is difficult to identify many teams they will realistically surpass in the standings. Even if the Suns decline, the teams that finished 13th (Spurs), 12th (Trail Blazers), and 10th (Mavericks) all made significant improvements this summer. New Orleans would need to pass all three of these teams (or two of them plus another team higher up the standings) merely to reach the lower end of the play-in tournament range.
Crucially, if the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs, they will send a lottery pick to the Atlanta Hawks. They took this substantial risk specifically to draft a prospect, Derik Queen, who possesses potential star power but doesn`t appear to be a superb fit alongside incumbent star Zion Williamson. Both players are somewhat `tweener` bigs who share similar strengths and weaknesses. It`s unclear how lineups featuring both Williamson and Queen will provide adequate floor spacing or defensive presence.
The draft night trade alone might not warrant placing the Pelicans in the “Loser” category, despite how questionable it was, if it were their only misstep. However, the new front office`s other moves this offseason also lack a cohesive strategic direction.
New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (along with swapping second-round picks with Washington). Saddiq Bey could potentially help the Pelicans after missing all of last season due to an ACL tear, but the core of this move was New Orleans effectively choosing Poole over McCollum. While Poole is eight years younger, advanced statistics generally rate the two players as roughly equal in terms of impact, and Poole is signed for an additional year at a significant $34 million salary.
Furthermore, the Pelicans` notable free agent signing is Kevon Looney. Looney`s performance outside of Golden State`s unique system is a significant question mark. It is particularly challenging to envision how this Pelicans offense will generate proper floor spacing, given the number of non-shooters expected to share the court. Looney, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen, and projected starting center Yves Missi have combined for a mere 51 made three-pointers over their cumulative 922 career games (including college stats for Queen and NBA stats for the others).
