The Boston Celtics` record-tying 61 three-point attempts on opening night ignited a season-long discussion: Is there such a thing as too many 3-pointers in basketball?
The number of long-distance shots has increased. After hovering around 35 attempts per game for the past half-decade, already a significant jump from 22.4 a decade prior, this season has seen an average of 37.5 attempts per game. This rise coincided with concerns about national TV ratings, leading some to point to the prevalence of 3-pointers as a potential issue.
However, NBA analysis suggests that fans generally have a positive view of the current style of play and the volume of 3-point shots. Therefore, significant rule changes appear unlikely in the near future.
Despite this, Daryl Morey, a key figure in the 3-point revolution and president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, voiced concerns at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. He suggested that the game might be negatively impacted by the over-reliance on the 3-pointer.
Let`s examine the data behind the surge in 3-pointers, Morey`s argument about their excessive value, and fan opinions on the current state of the game.
The Celtics, 3-Pointers, and the Narrative
A year ago, the optimal strategy regarding 3-point shooting wasn`t as clear-cut. Teams had already capitalized on the most obvious opportunities to convert 2-pointers into more valuable 3-point attempts. During Morey`s time with the Houston Rockets, prioritizing 3-pointers was considered an innovative tactic.
Between 2004-05 and 2018-19, teams attempting more 3-pointers than their opponents won 52% of the time. However, this trend reversed in the 2023-24 season, with such teams winning only 48% of games.
This trend shifted again in the 2024 playoffs. Teams that attempted more 3-pointers won 64.6% of the time. The NBA Finals featured the two teams with the highest 3-point attempt rates, with Boston defeating Dallas.
The Celtics` opening night game, where they tied the NBA record with 29 made 3-pointers, emphasized the increasing focus on long-range shots. Executive Evan Wasch from the NBA noted that this game might have significantly shaped the ongoing discussion about 3-pointers.
Early season declines in NBA national TV viewership further fueled the narrative. Competing with a popular World Series, the NBA faced speculation that the increased 3-point shooting was contributing to lower ratings.
Wasch explained that the ratings dip allowed for the 3-point volume to become a convenient scapegoat, despite a lack of direct evidence linking the two. League surveys and social media analysis indicated growing fan frustration with the number of 3-pointers and the overall style of play. This suggested that the ongoing conversation itself might be influencing fan perception.
Regardless of the reasons, 3-point attempts are undeniably on the rise again, and Morey believes he understands why.
Is it Time to Re-evaluate the 3-Point Shot?
Morey`s suggestion at the Sloan panel to reduce 3-point volume was notable, considering his pioneering role in popularizing the strategy. Apart from Stephen Curry, Morey is perhaps most associated with the increase in 3-point attempts, particularly through his “Moreyball” approach with the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets, under Morey, prioritized 3-pointers and shots near the basket, significantly reducing mid-range 2-point attempts. They became the first team to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers, achieving a franchise-best 65 wins in 2017-18.
Morey`s concern isn`t necessarily with the current volume of 3s, but with the fundamental game design. He argues that the initial significant reward for a 3-pointer was necessary to encourage long-range shooting when accuracy was lower.
In the early years of the 3-pointer, shooting percentages were low. It wasn`t until 1992-93 that the league-average 3-pointer became statistically more valuable than a 2-pointer.
Currently, with a league average of 36% on 3-pointers, each attempt yields approximately 1.07 points. To match this value with 2-pointers, teams would need to shoot 53.5%. This disparity explains Morey`s preference for avoiding mid-range 2-pointers, which the league converts at around 42%.
Morey argues that it`s detrimental to the game when an open mid-range shot by a top player is less valuable than a contested, off-dribble 3-pointer. He believes the league should consider adjustments to address this imbalance.
However, most league executives are more focused on team success than on concerns about the aesthetic appeal of the game. Morey acknowledges that teams are simply optimizing for wins, but he maintains that the disproportionate value of the 3-pointer “breaks the game.”
Wasch countered by stating that game design should prioritize fan entertainment, and current data indicates that fans are generally receptive to the prevalence of 3-point shooting.
NBA`s Stance: No Immediate Issue with 3-Pointers
Commissioner Adam Silver has acknowledged the possibility of adjustments to the game`s style, including potentially moving the 3-point line. However, he doesn`t believe this is the current solution, suggesting it might lead to more congested play near the basket rather than an increase in mid-range shots.
Silver recognizes a trend towards “cookie cutter” offenses, where teams increasingly emulate each other`s strategies. This is something the league is monitoring.
By the All-Star break, Silver expressed greater satisfaction with the state of the game. He affirmed the league`s ongoing evaluation but indicated contentment with the current product.
Wasch echoed this sentiment, stating that fan research shows a generally positive reception to the 3-point revolution, pace, spacing, and player athleticism. While acknowledging a possible need to re-engage fans who might be less enthusiastic about the current style, he doesn`t see a “fundamental problem” with the game`s design.
Surveys indicate younger fans are more accepting of the current style and 3-point volume than older fans, although the difference isn`t statistically significant. Mike Zarren, VP of Basketball Operations for the Celtics, also challenged the narrative that all teams are playing the same style, simply “jacking 3s.” He emphasized the diversity that still exists within the league.
Could 3-Point Attempts Increase Further?
Wasch`s research indicates that team play styles remain as diverse as in previous seasons. The variation in 3-point attempt rates across teams is consistent with historical trends; it`s the overall average that has increased.
Interestingly, the Celtics have slightly reduced their 3-point frequency after an initial surge. Their playoff performance will likely serve as a key case study in the ongoing debate about 3-point volume, as will the success of teams like the Denver Nuggets, who employ a different offensive approach.
Regardless, a further increase in 3-point attempts seems more probable than a decrease. Younger players, like Victor Wembanyama, are already attempting 3-pointers at unprecedented rates. The focus on 3-pointers isn`t replacing shots at the rim; the proportion of shots in the paint remains consistent.
While some believe defenses will eventually over-adjust to 3-pointers, creating more mid-range opportunities, historical evidence suggests that reducing 3-point attempts requires moving the line further back.
The NCAA moved its 3-point line back, resulting in a slight decrease in 3-point attempt percentage. Currently, the NBA attempts 3-pointers at a higher rate than top college programs.
While 3-point attempts could potentially reach 50% of all shots in the future, the NBA currently doesn`t perceive the current rate as problematic.
Wasch concluded that the NBA is data-driven and prepared to act if necessary. However, current data and stakeholder consensus don`t indicate a need for drastic changes regarding 3-point shooting.
