Another Maple Leafs playoff disappointment likely precedes big changes, but should it?

The Toronto Maple Leafs` 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs journey concluded with a familiar and disappointing outcome. Despite showing some different looks at times during their run, the team was ultimately booed off the Scotiabank Arena ice after a lopsided 6-1 defeat to the Florida Panthers in Game 7.

Since their competitive series against the Washington Capitals in the 2017 NHL playoffs, the Maple Leafs have consistently reached the postseason, making it nine straight appearances. However, this period has been marked by repeated failures in elimination games, including six Game 7 losses. Over these nine seasons, Toronto has only advanced beyond the first round twice and managed a total of just 31 playoff wins. To put this in perspective, the reigning champion Florida Panthers have accumulated 37 wins in just the last three years.

This consistent lack of deep playoff success, coupled with significant upcoming contract decisions for key players, strongly suggests that the Maple Leafs roster will look substantially different when the 2025-26 season begins. Two prominent members of the team`s established `Core Four`, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, are heading towards unrestricted free agency.

Furthermore, rising star Matthew Knies is poised to become a restricted free agent. The 22-year-old winger demonstrated his value this past season with an impressive 29 goals and 29 assists, making him due for a significant contract increase.

Time to shake it up?

The argument for letting Tavares and Marner sign elsewhere is clear. Toronto still possesses elite offensive talent in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, both in the prime of their careers, and Knies appears ready to join that top tier if re-signed this summer. Theoretically, the substantial cap space freed up by the departures of Marner and Tavares could be reinvested to build a stronger supporting cast around Matthews, Nylander, and Knies. In the recent playoff series, the `Core Four` plus Knies accounted for the vast majority of the team`s offense, while the rest of the roster contributed very little.

After multiple seasons ending in the same disappointing fashion, the Maple Leafs organization and their fanbase are understandably tempted to dismantle the core group and implement sweeping roster changes. Given the passionate crowds in Maple Leaf Square and the strong support seen inside the arena, the fans would likely welcome such a drastic shift.

However, there is also a compelling case to be made for maintaining the core group and giving them another chance to succeed. This option might be more appealing upon closer examination.

The case for running it back

Firstly, the players comprising the `Core Four` and Knies are undeniably very talented. Marner is a dynamic winger capable of producing 100-point seasons and impacts play across all three zones when at his best. Despite being 34, Tavares is coming off a productive season with 38 goals and 74 points. Finding players of this caliber is exceptionally difficult, and replacing their combined contribution, particularly through free agency, presents a significant challenge. The projected 2025 free agent class is not considered particularly deep outside of Marner and Tavares.

While players like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Brock Boeser might be available, they are not guaranteed to replicate the offensive impact of Tavares and Marner, especially considering the high salaries they are likely to command.

This situation means Toronto`s general manager, Brad Treliving, would need to rely heavily on creative trades or maneuvers in restricted free agency. Unfortunately, the team faces limitations in these areas as well. The Maple Leafs do not hold a first-round pick in any of the next three NHL Entry Drafts and possess only two second-round picks during that span. This lack of draft capital makes it difficult to execute a major trade without including current core players. Furthermore, they likely lack the necessary compensation assets to make a significant splash by submitting an offer sheet to a top restricted free agent from another team.

Considering these significant constraints on acquiring replacement talent, it is quite possible that the team could regress in the 2025-26 season if Marner and Tavares ultimately depart. The strong desire for change within the Toronto market is completely understandable and arguably rational, as the NHL is a results-driven league, and this core has consistently failed to deliver deep playoff success. However, one must question how much `greener` the grass truly is without two of their top offensive catalysts in the lineup. It may not be as clear an improvement as many fans assume.

While it might require Tavares accepting a reduced salary or Marner signing for less than his potential market value, the Maple Leafs` most pragmatic short-term strategy could involve retaining this core group and providing them with another opportunity or two to overcome their playoff hurdles.