Aljamain Sterling recognizes the significant power Ilia Topuria possesses and believes Charles Oliveira must approach their upcoming fight with extreme caution regarding Topuria`s striking threat.
Oliveira, once criticized for his reactions to being hurt, has transformed into a resilient former champion known for weathering storms and delivering devastating finishes. His impressive run includes numerous highlight-reel moments and performance bonuses.
Scheduled for June 28 at UFC 317, Oliveira is set to challenge Ilia Topuria for the lightweight title recently vacated by Islam Makhachev. Topuria also vacated the featherweight belt to pursue this second championship. Sterling suggests that Oliveira`s characteristic aggressive, often vulnerable style might be risky against Topuria.
“It’s interesting because Oliveira gets dropped almost every fight,” Sterling noted on *The Weekly Scraps* podcast. “In probably his last eight fights. Knowing that, and knowing Ilia Topuria can hit hard – we saw him get dropped by Jai Herbert in his first fight at 155, but he came back and won. He says he feels stronger and his power is different at lightweight. If he can connect with Charles the way he hits others, it`s going to be a bad night for Oliveira, and Ilia could become a two-division champion.”
Sterling also considered the grappling aspect. “We haven’t seen anyone really force a grappling match against Ilia,” he added. “I wonder if `do Bronx` will try to wear him down that way, maybe deplete his gas tank and take away some of his power. That’s a big unknown.”
Oliveira is celebrated as one of MMA`s most dangerous grapplers, holding the UFC record with 16 submission victories. He is also expected to have a size advantage, adding another layer of complexity to potential close-range exchanges.
Topuria has shown capability in both offensive and defensive wrestling but primarily relies on his potent striking. He claimed the featherweight title by knocking out Alexander Volkanovski, becoming the first to beat him at 145 pounds, and is also the first fighter to knock out Max Holloway.
Given Topuria`s track record of defeating established stars, Sterling ponders the ceiling for the undefeated fighter.
“It’s tough to count `do Bronx` out,” Sterling admitted. “I still think he’s elite. But I thought that about Max and Volk too – not that I necessarily predicted they would win against Ilia – but when you see him do what he did to them, you start thinking, `Wow… who *can* stop this guy?`”
While Oliveira has a recent record of 2-2 in his last four fights, this follows an impressive 11-fight winning streak in the highly competitive lightweight division. Topuria, in contrast, remains undefeated across 16 professional bouts.
The outcome of their clash may well hinge on which fighter successfully imposes their dominant skill set. Sterling anticipates this question will loom large throughout the potentially five-round contest.
“I’m leaning towards Ilia,” Sterling stated. “I think that`s where the smart money is. Of course, Oliveira absolutely can win, especially if he can grapple with him early. Maybe he`ll surprise us and show that Ilia can get tired, lessening his punch power. But then, what does that look like for Oliveira in the later rounds if he doesn`t get a finish?”
“Can he maintain his defense and keep his hands up effectively? And how does he even secure the takedown? He has to close the distance against a shorter opponent – that`s hard to do. You have to get underneath him.”
