7 Key Factors for the 2025 NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers

Following a decisive 125-108 victory in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday, the Indiana Pacers secured their place in the 2025 NBA Finals. This sets up one of the most unexpected championship matchups in recent league history. On the surface, the fourth-seeded Pacers and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder appear vastly different. OKC was a preseason favorite and dominated the Western Conference, while Indiana struggled initially before improving significantly from January. The Thunder boast the MVP, another All-NBA selection, and two All-Defensive players, whereas the Pacers` sole honoree is Tyrese Haliburton (All-NBA Third Team).

Yet, these finalists share common ground as young teams led by dynamic guards located in the central US. Notably, this is the first Finals since the luxury tax implementation where neither team is a taxpayer. Both teams play an exciting, fast-paced style and are well-positioned for future playoff success.

Before the Finals tip off on Thursday, here are the stats, trends, and head-to-head wrinkles to know about this unexpected Thunder-Pacers showdown.

A Rare Battle of All-NBA Point Guards

While a direct defensive matchup between the two is unlikely, the point guard battle featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton is a series highlight. They are the first pair of All-NBA selected point guards to meet in the Finals since Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving a decade ago.

Their offensive styles differ significantly. Gilgeous-Alexander, the league MVP, focused on scoring (32.7 PPG, sixth all-time for a PG this season), while Haliburton is primarily a facilitator, leading the league in assists (10.9 APG in 2023-24, 9.2 this season). Haliburton can score but often impacts the game without needing 20+ points.

Both guards have performed strongly in the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander overcame a slow start and currently leads all playoff players in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). Haliburton ranks third in WARP, trailing only Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.

Haliburton Has a Passive History vs. OKC

The Thunder`s defense, featuring strong perimeter defenders like Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso, appears theoretically well-suited to contain Haliburton. This has proven true in recent history. Over the past two seasons across four meetings, Haliburton has averaged just 12 points per game against OKC, his lowest against any opponent during that period.

His approach against the Thunder`s defenders has been notably passive. He averages only 10.2 field goal attempts per game (second fewest against any opponent) and a mere 0.5 free throw attempts (fewest), drawing only one shooting foul in four games. His playmaking has also been limited, with 8.5 assists per game (tied for fourth fewest).

GeniusIQ tracking shows Haliburton scored only eight points on 10 attempts in 122 matchups guarded by Dort, his lowest shot rate against any defender with over 50 matchups. For the Pacers to have a chance at an upset, Haliburton must be significantly better and more aggressive.

The Finals Feature the No. 2 Offense vs. the No. 1 Defense

This series presents a classic strength-on-strength matchup when Indiana possesses the ball. The Pacers rank second among all playoff teams in offensive rating, behind only the Cleveland Cavaliers. Facing them is Oklahoma City`s formidable defense, which allows 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other playoff team.

This is the first Finals featuring a No. 2 offense vs. a No. 1 defense since 2022 (Golden State vs. Boston) and the 14th since 1997. Historically, neither elite offense nor elite defense holds a dominant advantage in these matchups (top-two offense won 7 of 13 series). Performance on the *other* end of the court has been a better predictor: in 9 of 12 series where one team ranked better defensively/offensively than the opponent`s strength, the superior team won. This favors the Thunder, who are third in playoff offensive rating, while the Pacers rank only ninth defensively.

Don`t Expect Another 3-Point Barrage From Indy

A crucial factor in Indiana`s offensive success and Oklahoma City`s defensive effectiveness is their relationship with the 3-point line. Indiana leads all playoff teams with a remarkable 40% 3-point accuracy; only Haliburton among their starters shoots below this mark.

This potent offense meets OKC`s stout 3-point defense, which led the league in the regular season (34% allowed) and is down to 33% in the playoffs. Whether opponent 3-point percentage is skill or luck, the Thunder`s defense seems to have both. GeniusIQ data shows OKC was third in opponent 3-point shot quality and second in opponent 3-point shotmaking during the regular season.

However, OKC has a vulnerability: they allow the third-most 3-point attempts (41% of opponent shots in regular season, 40% in playoffs). They strategically prioritize preventing shots at the rim, accepting that opponents will shoot more threes, even quality looks. This strategy could backfire if the Pacers maintain their current hot shooting. Conversely, statistics suggest some Pacers players, like Andrew Nembhard (29% regular season) and Pascal Siakam (39%), are shooting significantly above their norms. Whether they can sustain this hot streak could significantly impact the series outcome.

Prepare for Faster Finals?

Typically, NBA Finals games tend to slow down as stakes increase. However, both Oklahoma City and Indiana play at a high tempo. The Thunder average 100.6 possessions per playoff game (second highest), and the Pacers are close behind at 98.4 (third highest).

Based on the playing style of both teams, this series could be a high-octane, up-and-down affair.

Indiana`s Run Among the Most Unlikely in Finals History

While the Pacers reached the conference finals last year, their path to the 2025 Finals was highly improbable according to oddsmakers. They started the season with 20-1 odds to win the East (tied for sixth), implying roughly a 4% chance of reaching the Finals.

Historically, only two Finals teams in the last four decades started with longer preseason championship odds than Indiana`s 50-1: the 2019-20 Heat (75-1) and the 2001-02 Nets (60-1). The four other teams with preseason odds of 30-1 or higher that reached the Finals all lost. The most improbable champions based on preseason odds were the 2014-15 Warriors (28-1). If the Pacers manage another upset to win the series, they would far surpass this historical mark.

Two More Chances at History

A Pacers championship would place them in rare historical company. Only two previous champions weren`t top-3 seeds entering the playoffs: the 1994-95 Rockets (No. 6 seed, defending champs) and the 1968-69 Celtics (No. 4 seed, dynastic team). Thus, the Pacers could become the first champion in league history that wasn`t a top-3 seed *or* a defending champion.

Their regular-season point differential of +2.2 is also historically low for a potential champion; only the 1994-95 Rockets (+2.1) and 1977-78 Bullets (+0.9) had worse figures since 1960 among champions. The Pacers` profile mirrors the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks, who were a No. 5 seed with a 50-32 record and +2.2 differential, ultimately losing in five Finals games.

On the other side, the Oklahoma City Thunder could also achieve historical significance with a win. Their 68-14 regular season record, combined with a potential 16 playoff wins, would give them 84 total wins. Only the 1995-96 Bulls (87 wins total) had more wins in a championship season.

While modern playoff formats require more wins (16), only four champions finished with a better regular-season record than the Thunder: the 1995-96 Bulls (72-10), 1996-97 Bulls (69-13), 1971-72 Lakers (69-13), and 1966-67 76ers (68-13).