The stage is set for the 2025 NBA playoffs! After a thrilling final week, the Eastern Conference bracket was finalized on Friday. The Western Conference matchups were decided in the last game, a dramatic overtime showdown between Stephen Curry`s Golden State Warriors and Kawhi Leonard`s LA Clippers. Now, 20 teams are officially in the running for the coveted Larry O`Brien trophy, with five of them seeking their first-ever championship.
In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers secured the top seed after a dominant 64-win regular season. However, the reigning champions, the Boston Celtics, are close behind at No. 2, eager to defend their title. No team has achieved back-to-back championships since the Warriors in 2017 and 2018, marking one of the longest periods without a repeat champion in NBA history.
The Western Conference remained fiercely competitive until the very last moments of the regular season. When the Clippers defeated the Warriors, locking in the No. 5 seed and a first-round matchup against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, the No. 6 seed and guaranteed playoff spot went to the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are set to face LeBron James and the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers. The 7th-seed Warriors now enter the play-in tournament against Ja Morant and the 8th-seed Memphis Grizzlies.
The play-in tournament tips off on Tuesday with the two No. 7 vs. 8 games, and the first round of the playoffs begins on Saturday. Until then, our NBA experts analyze all 20 teams, highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, season reviews, best-case scenarios, and crucial factors to watch in the play-in and first round.
- EASTERN CONFERENCE
- 1. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Cleveland`s Path to the Postseason:
- Will Their 3-Point Shooting Hold Up?
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 2. Boston Celtics
- Boston`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can the Celtics Stay Healthy in the Playoffs?
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 3. New York Knicks
- New York`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can the Knicks Elevate Their Game in the Postseason?
- Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 4. Indiana Pacers
- Indiana`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can Haliburton Maintain His Production?
- Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 5. Milwaukee Bucks
- Milwaukee`s Path to the Postseason:
- Will Lillard Be Available and Effective?
- Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 6. Detroit Pistons
- Detroit`s Path to the Postseason:
- How Will Detroit`s Young Stars Perform in the Playoffs?
- Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 7. Orlando Magic
- Orlando`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can Orlando`s Elite Defense Carry Them?
- Key Factor in the Play-in:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 8. Atlanta Hawks
- Atlanta`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can Young Create Playoff Magic Again?
- Key Factor in the Play-in:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 9. Chicago Bulls
- Chicago`s Path to the Postseason:
- Can the Bulls Get Enough Defensive Stops?
- Key Factor in the Play-in:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 10. Miami Heat
- Miami`s Path to the Postseason:
- How Far Can Herro and Adebayo Take Them?
- Key Factor in the Play-in:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- WESTERN CONFERENCE
- 1. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Oklahoma City`s Path to the Postseason:
- Will a Secondary Scorer Emerge?
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 2. Houston Rockets
- Houston`s Path to the Postseason:
- How Will Houston Overcome Playoff Inexperience?
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 3. Los Angeles Lakers
- Los Angeles` Path to the Postseason:
- How Will Doncic, James, and Reaves Perform Together?
- Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
- Best-Case Scenario:
- Net Points X Factor:
- 4. Denver Nuggets
- Denver`s Path to the Postseason:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Cleveland`s Path to the Postseason:
The Cavaliers are built on a foundation of depth and team-wide shooting, featuring All-Star guards and elite, defensively strong big men. This modern approach has allowed them to consistently outperform opponents for months. Their system emphasizes defensive switching with versatile players capable of playing multiple positions. Coach Kenny Atkinson has experimented with various lineups and formations throughout the season to prepare for the playoffs.
However, their lack of significant perimeter size is a concern, particularly when facing teams like Boston with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The midseason acquisition of De`Andre Hunter was intended to address this. Despite this, they finished the season with an 8-8 record in their final 16 games, which isn`t ideal momentum heading into the postseason. — Brian Windhorst
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
| Record | 64-18 |
| Point diff. | +9.5 |
| Off. rating | 121.0 (1st) |
| Def. rating | 111.8 (8th) |
| Net rating | 9.2 (3rd) |
| PPG leader | Donovan Mitchell (24.0) |
| NBA title odds | +600 |
Will Their 3-Point Shooting Hold Up?
Prior to March 11th, the Cavaliers were the league`s top 3-point shooting team, maintaining that position for months. Since then, they have dropped to 19th. The question is, which version will show up when it matters most?
Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are excellent playmakers and shot creators. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen anchor a strong defensive back line, compensating for any defensive weaknesses in the guard positions. However, their system is most effective when their lead guards are hitting 3-pointers. Mitchell`s 3-point percentage dropped from 39% before the All-Star break to 30% after, and Garland`s fell from 43% to 34%. With them taking a combined 16 three-pointers per game, these percentage shifts significantly impact their margin for error. — Windhorst
Best-Case Scenario:
Any team with Cleveland`s regular-season performance deserves to be considered a top title contender. If Coach Atkinson increases the playing time for his starters in the playoffs – no Cavalier averaged even 32 minutes per game this season – the team could reach another level this spring. The Cavaliers possess depth, balance, and offensive firepower. Nine years after their first franchise championship, they have a genuine chance to win another. — Zach Kram
Net Points X Factor:
The Cavaliers have been the league`s best clutch team. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are heavily involved in clutch possessions, averaging +10.2 and +4.6 offensive net points per 48 minutes, respectively. — Dean Oliver
2. Boston Celtics
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Boston`s Path to the Postseason:
The defending champions had a relatively smooth season, despite dealing with injuries, especially Kristaps Porzingis`s extended absences. While Cleveland grabbed the top seed, Boston comfortably secured a fourth consecutive 50-win season and enters the playoffs as the favorite to return to the NBA Finals for the third time in four years. — Tim Bontemps
2. Boston Celtics
| Record | 61-21 |
| Point diff. | +9.1 |
| Off. rating | 119.5 (2nd) |
| Def. rating | 110.1 (4th) |
| Net rating | 9.4 (2nd) |
| PPG leader | Jayson Tatum (26.8) |
| NBA title odds | +180 |
Can the Celtics Stay Healthy in the Playoffs?
Boston`s high volume of 3-pointers makes them a team of high variance. However, if all eight key rotation players can remain healthy throughout the playoffs, they will be the clear favorites to defend their title. This is a significant “if.” Porzingis missed much of last year`s playoff run due to injuries and has played in fewer games than he has missed this season. Jrue Holiday has also had spells in and out of the lineup, and Al Horford, while consistently available, is 38 years old. If the Celtics can maintain health, they should be unstoppable in the East and a second straight title is within reach. — Bontemps
Best-Case Scenario:
Boston has a strong chance to become the first repeat champion of the 2020s. Only four teams have achieved back-to-back titles in the 21st century: the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers (who achieved a three-peat), the Kobe-and-Gasol Lakers, the LeBron-and-Wade Heat, and the Durant-era Warriors. No Celtics team has repeated since the 1960s! Jayson Tatum and Co. could make history this spring. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Luke Kornet leads the league in net points per 100 possessions on offensive rebounds and putbacks at +3.7. — Oliver
3. New York Knicks
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New York`s Path to the Postseason:
The Knicks are a very good team, having their best season in over a decade. However, a significant challenge looms: they consistently appear to be a step or two behind Boston and Cleveland. Against these top two Eastern Conference teams, the Knicks are 0-8, with many of these losses being decisive defeats. This is a frustrating situation for the franchise and its fans: being significantly better than most teams, perhaps a top-five team, but still far from true title contention. — Chris Herring
3. New York Knicks
| Record | 51-31 |
| Point diff. | +4.1 |
| Off. rating | 117.3 (5th) |
| Def. rating | 113.3 (13th) |
| Net rating | 4.0 (8th) |
| PPG leader | Jalen Brunson (26.0) |
| NBA title odds | +3300 |
Can the Knicks Elevate Their Game in the Postseason?
This is a recurring question for teams coached by Tom Thibodeau, given the heavy minutes his starters play compared to the rest of the league. This Knicks team, featuring Mikal Bridges (league leader in total minutes), Josh Hart (second), and OG Anunoby (ninth), is no exception. Jalen Brunson`s nearly month-long absence due to an ankle injury might be beneficial, potentially preventing further wear and tear on his body. Brunson leads the league in ball possession time, averaging 8.6 minutes per game. — Herring
Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
Beyond Brunson`s performance post-injury, a crucial aspect to observe is how often Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson share the court. The Knicks` defense hasn`t consistently performed well against top offenses when Towns and Robinson are both defending the paint, a strategy similar to how the Timberwolves used Rudy Gobert with Towns. Towns and Robinson have only played 47 minutes together, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions but allowing a high 118.8 points in that time. If this big-man duo can improve their synergy, it would significantly improve the team`s pick-and-roll defense. — Herring
If healthy, New York has the talent to beat any team in a series. Their starting five is that strong. However, reliable depth beyond the starters is limited. The defense has struggled against the NBA`s best offenses, and their playoff bracket presents challenges. The Knicks are likely to advance to the second round, but reaching the conference finals, let alone upsetting the defending champion Celtics, would be a major surprise. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Jalen Brunson uses 45% of possessions in clutch situations and generates +13 offensive net points per 100 possessions in those moments, both league-leading figures. — Oliver
4. Indiana Pacers
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Indiana`s Path to the Postseason:
On January 1st, the Pacers were 16-18, seemingly far from their Eastern Conference finals appearance the previous season. However, Indiana has been one of the hottest teams in the league since, going 50-32 and with Tyrese Haliburton playing like one of the NBA`s best young point guards. The Pacers will have home-court advantage in the first round against the Bucks, a rematch of last season`s first-round series, aiming to build on last year`s surprising playoff run. — Jamal Collier
4. Indiana Pacers
| Record | 50-32 |
| Point diff. | +2.3 |
| Off. rating | 115.4 (9th) |
| Def. rating | 113.3 (14th) |
| Net rating | 2.1 (13th) |
| PPG leader | Pascal Siakam (20.2) |
| NBA title odds | +10000 |
Can Haliburton Maintain His Production?
Haliburton`s return to All-Star and potentially All-NBA level play has been crucial to the Pacers` turnaround. He`s averaging 18.6 points and 9.2 assists on 51% shooting, including 44% from 3-point range on 7.2 attempts, leading Indiana to the league`s sixth-best offense since the start of January. — Collier
Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
This series is a rematch of the 2024 first round, where the 6th-seed Pacers upset the 3rd-seed Bucks. Indiana enters this year as the higher seed but has had less success against Milwaukee this season, losing three of four regular-season games. A major difference this year is that the Bucks will have a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo for the postseason, unlike in the past two first-round exits where injuries limited him. — Collier
Best-Case Scenario:
It largely depends on whether the Cavaliers` late-season slump is real or temporary. If Cleveland plays to their full potential, Indiana`s ceiling is likely a second-round exit. However, if the Cavaliers are more vulnerable than their record suggests, the Pacers have a chance to upset the East`s top seed and return to the conference finals. A Boston-Indiana conference finals matchup for the second year in a row is not out of the realm of possibility. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
T.J. McConnell, the smallest player on the Pacers, provides the most net points on half-court layups at +1.1 per 48 minutes. Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith contribute layups in transition at +1.4 each. — Oliver
5. Milwaukee Bucks
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Milwaukee`s Path to the Postseason:
Year 2 of the Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard era in Milwaukee has been as inconsistent as the first. The Bucks recovered from a disastrous 2-8 start to win the NBA Cup in December, then traded Khris Middleton to the Wizards for Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline. Injuries have depleted the Bucks roster down the stretch, jeopardizing Lillard`s playoff status and leaving Antetokounmpo, who is still performing at an MVP level, to carry the team. — Collier
5. Milwaukee Bucks
| Record | 48-34 |
| Point diff. | +2.5 |
| Off. rating | 115.1 (10th) |
| Def. rating | 112.7 (12th) |
| Net rating | 2.4 (11th) |
| PPG leader | Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4) |
| NBA title odds | +15000 |
Will Lillard Be Available and Effective?
A healthy Lillard is essential for the Bucks to make a deep playoff run. He was sidelined indefinitely on March 25th with a blood clot issue in his right calf, but blood thinners have shown positive results, raising optimism about a potential return this season. Lillard and Antetokounmpo were the highest-scoring duo in the NBA this season, and their chemistry has improved in their second year together. — Collier
Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
Due to injuries, Milwaukee has slipped in the standings and enters the first round as a lower seed. This sets up a first-round rematch with the Pacers, who eliminated them in six games last season. Antetokounmpo`s dominance has helped the Bucks play some of their best basketball recently, winning eight straight games to close the season even without Lillard. However, the Pacers have been strong for months, fueled by Tyrese Halliburton`s return to All-Star form, posting the fourth-best record in the NBA since January 1st. — Collier
Best-Case Scenario:
In theory, Antetokounmpo is talented enough to carry a team to the Finals single-handedly. However, the rest of the Bucks roster is limited, especially with Lillard`s uncertain health, and the East`s top teams are very strong, making a deep run unlikely. The Bucks` best-case scenario might be maintaining competitiveness to keep Antetokounmpo from seeking a trade this summer, rather than focusing solely on the 2025 title. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Antetokounmpo adds +2.7 net points per 48 minutes on half-court layups alone, the best in the league. — Oliver
6. Detroit Pistons
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Detroit`s Path to the Postseason:
The Pistons have orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in NBA history, going from 14-68 last season – the worst record before a playoff appearance – to the No. 6 seed in the East. Under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit surpassed their previous season`s win total before New Year`s Day. — Kevin Pelton
6. Detroit Pistons
| Record | 44-38 |
| Point diff. | +1.9 |
| Off. rating | 114.6 (14th) |
| Def. rating | 112.5 (10th) |
| Net rating | 2.1 (12th) |
| PPG leader | Cade Cunningham (26.1) |
| NBA title odds | +50000 |
How Will Detroit`s Young Stars Perform in the Playoffs?
Veterans like Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Tobias Harris bring playoff experience, but this will be the postseason debut for All-Star Cade Cunningham and fellow starters Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson, all recent lottery picks.
Cunningham`s performance, in particular, could influence the Pistons` offseason approach. If he continues to play at an All-NBA level, Detroit could make a run similar to the Indiana Pacers in the 2024 playoffs. — Pelton
Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
Can Cunningham replicate his regular-season success against the Knicks? He averaged 30.8 points and 8.3 assists in four games against New York, shooting 56% overall and 52% from 3-point range. The Knicks struggled to contain Cunningham, especially late in games, contributing to Detroit winning three of those four matchups. It will be interesting to see if the Knicks use OG Anunoby, a 6-7 standout defender, to try and slow down Cunningham. — Herring
Best-Case Scenario:
This season is already a success for the Pistons, regardless of playoff results. But why not aim for more? Detroit hasn`t won a playoff game since 2008. They should break that drought this month and have the potential for a first-round upset and a conference semifinals appearance. While deep playoff success against experienced teams like the Knicks is unlikely, the Pistons will fight hard in every game. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Detroit is second in fast-break points, with four players adding at least +1 net point per 48 minutes in transition: Cunningham, Thompson, Beasley, and Ronald Holland II. — Oliver
7. Orlando Magic
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Orlando`s Path to the Postseason:
What began as a promising season for the Magic was hampered by injuries. Two months into the season, they were third in the East, behind only the Cavs and Celtics. Then, they lost their three best players for extended periods: Paolo Banchero (34 games), Franz Wagner (20), and Jalen Suggs (out for the season after 31 games). They secured the No. 7 seed, offering hope for 2025-26. However, this season never fully recovered after the injury setbacks. — Herring
7. Orlando Magic
| Record | 41-41 |
| Point diff. | -0.1 |
| Off. rating | 108.9 (27th) |
| Def. rating | 109.1 (2nd) |
| Net rating | -0.2 |
| PPG leader | Paolo Banchero (25.9) |
| NBA title odds | +75000 |
Can Orlando`s Elite Defense Carry Them?
The Magic won two of three games against the Celtics, holding a depleted Boston team to a season-low 76 points on April 9th. If the Magic lose in Tuesday`s play-in game but win Friday`s game to secure the No. 8 seed, they would face a rematch with Cleveland from last spring. While the top-seeded Cavs are improved, Orlando`s seven-game series against them in 2024 should give them confidence. — Herring
Key Factor in the Play-in:
Will the NBA`s worst 3-point shooting team stay cold from deep in crucial moments? Despite their poor 3-point shooting, Orlando is 12-2 when hitting 15 or more threes. Conversely, they are 5-29 when hitting fewer than 10. One of those five wins was against the Hawks, their play-in opponent on Tuesday. — Herring
Best-Case Scenario:
Even if the Magic advance from the play-in, they are likely to lose to the Cavaliers or Celtics. However, their performance in defeat matters for future seasons. A play-in collapse or a quick first-round sweep would cap a disappointing season. A competitive showing led by Banchero and Wagner could build momentum for the future and help Orlando contend in 2025-26. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
The Magic have the worst offense of the 20 postseason teams. Wagner and Banchero carry over 30% of the offense each, but add only around +1.5 offensive net points per 48 minutes. — Oliver
8. Atlanta Hawks
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Atlanta`s Path to the Postseason:
After drafting Zaccharie Risacher, trading for Dyson Daniels, and extending Jalen Johnson`s contract, this season felt like a new era for the Hawks. Trae Young remains a skilled playmaker and made his fourth All-Star team, but Johnson`s season-ending shoulder injury in January limited the team`s potential. Still, the No. 8 seed Hawks have two chances to reach the playoffs through the play-in tournament. — Bontemps
8. Atlanta Hawks
| Record | 40-42 |
| Point diff. | -1.1 |
| Off. rating | 113.7 (17th) |
| Def. rating | 114.8 (18th) |
| Net rating | -1.1 (18th) |
| PPG leader | Trae Young (24.2) |
| NBA title odds | +100000 |
Can Young Create Playoff Magic Again?
Young showed playoff magic in 2021, leading the Hawks past the Knicks and 76ers to the Eastern Conference finals. Despite talk of Atlanta transitioning around young wings, Young remains the key playmaker, especially with Johnson injured. If the Hawks are to make noise, Young will need to lead the way. — Bontemps
Key Factor in the Play-in:
With Orlando`s Jalen Suggs out, Young should be able to create offensive havoc in the 7-8 game. If he does, Atlanta has a chance to outscore Orlando. The Magic have a bottom-five offense, which should limit their ability to exploit Young`s defensive weaknesses. Suggs` absence should allow Young to generate enough offensive advantages for the Hawks. — Bontemps
Best-Case Scenario:
The last time the Hawks reached the playoffs was in 2022-23, earning the No. 7 seed through the play-in and briefly challenging the Celtics in the first round before losing in six games. Their best outcome this year could be a similar scenario: winning the 7-8 game and putting up a fight against Boston in the first round. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Daniels defends a player +1.6 net points per 48 minutes better than Young defends. This difference is comparable to the gap between a low-end All-Star and an average player. — Oliver
9. Chicago Bulls
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Chicago`s Path to the Postseason:
The Bulls retooled their roster, trading away Alex Caruso and Zach LaVine, while matching last season`s 39-43 record. This younger Chicago team is making its third consecutive play-in appearance. — Pelton
9. Chicago Bulls
| Record | 39-43 |
| Point diff. | -1.6 |
| Off. rating | 113.2 (20th) |
| Def. rating | 114.8 (19th) |
| Net rating | -1.6 (20th) |
| PPG leader | Coby White (20.6) |
| NBA title odds | +100000 |
Can the Bulls Get Enough Defensive Stops?
Their defensive rating of 115 points allowed per 100 possessions ranks 23rd in the league and last among postseason teams.
Lonzo Ball`s return after missing 47 games with injuries could help. Chicago allowed eight fewer points per 100 possessions with Ball on the court. However, the Bulls struggle to protect the rim without a strong shot blocker and rarely force turnovers. — Pelton
Key Factor in the Play-in:
Watch how Miami defends Josh Giddey. Oklahoma City traded Giddey last year partly due to his struggles from deep and opponents` strategy of letting him shoot in the playoffs. While Giddey has improved his shooting this season, hitting a career-best 37.8% from deep, Miami might test his jumper in the play-in game. — Herring
Best-Case Scenario:
The Bulls` fast-paced, 3-point-heavy approach increases game variance, making them capable of winning a game against a better opponent. However, winning a series against a top East team is unlikely. Chicago could reach the first round after failing in the play-in the last two years, but that`s likely their ceiling. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
Chicago loses games by an average of two points, but 3-point shooting isn`t the problem. They gain +2.0 net points per game from 3-pointers, fifth-best in the league. — Oliver
10. Miami Heat
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Miami`s Path to the Postseason:
This Miami season has been defined by Jimmy Butler III. First, his messy departure from the franchise. Then, after his trade to Golden State, Miami`s collapse after the trade deadline, particularly their poor fourth-quarter performances, led them to the play-in tournament. — Bontemps
10. Miami Heat
| Record | 37-45 |
| Point diff. | +0.6 |
| Off. rating | 112.4 (21st) |
| Def. rating | 112.0 (9th) |
| Net rating | 0.4 |
| PPG leader | Tyler Herro (23.9) |
| NBA title odds | +100000 |
How Far Can Herro and Adebayo Take Them?
Even before the Butler situation, Miami was shifting towards Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as the franchise`s core. Herro has improved significantly, increasing his 3-point volume and efficiency and becoming an All-Star. However, Adebayo`s performance has been underwhelming. For Miami to reach the playoffs, Herro and Adebayo must play at their best. — Bontemps
Key Factor in the Play-in:
Can Miami close out games? Their struggles in the fourth quarter have consistently prevented them from climbing the standings. Miami can no longer afford poor quarters, or their season will end. — Bontemps
Best-Case Scenario:
The Heat have a history of playoff upsets and Cinderella runs, but this team doesn`t seem talented or consistent enough to continue that. Given their post-Butler trade performance, making it out of the play-in would be fortunate, with little chance of going further against teams like the Cavaliers or Celtics in the first round. — Kram
Net Points X Factor:
The Heat are the worst playoff/play-in team in the fourth quarter. Duncan Robinson`s performance drops significantly in the fourth quarter, from +0.1 net points per 48 minutes in the first and third to -4.8 in the fourth. — Oliver
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
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Oklahoma City`s Path to the Postseason:
The Thunder have improved significantly since becoming the youngest No. 1 seed a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP favorite, leading the league in scoring efficiently while consistently filling the stat sheet. Luguentz Dort anchors the league`s top defense. Veteran additions Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso have seamlessly integrated into their roles. OKC broke the NBA record for point differential despite Chet Holmgren, arguably their second-best player, missing most of the season. — Tim MacMahon
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
| Record | 68-14 |
| Point diff. | +12.9 |
| Off. rating | 119.2 (3rd) |
| Def. rating | 106.6 (1st) |
| Net rating | 12.7 (1st) |
| PPG leader | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7) |
| NBA title odds | +170 |
Will a Secondary Scorer Emerge?
Gilgeous-Alexander excelled in the second round last season, averaging 32.2 points on impressive shooting splits, but Oklahoma City still lost to Dallas in six games. Jalen Williams struggled in that series, shooting only 42.4% from the field. Williams has since become an All-Star, averaging career highs of 21.6 points and 5.3 assists. The Thunder are confident he`s ready for the playoff challenge in his second appearance. — MacMahon
Best-Case Scenario:
Given their near-70-win season and best point differential in NBA history, the best-case scenario is winning the championship decisively. The largest margins of victory in recent playoffs were by the 2016-17 Warriors (16-1) and last year`s Celtics (16-3). Similar dominance is possible for Oklahoma City, although they are likely to face tougher competition than last year`s Celtics. — Pelton
Net Points X Factor:
Gilgeous-Alexander generates more productivity from free throws than any player, adding +3.2 net points per game, ahead of James Harden at +2.8. — Oliver
2. Houston Rockets
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Houston`s Path to the Postseason:
Coach Ime Udoka set a postseason goal for a team coming off a 41-win season. Reaching 50 wins on April 2nd, Udoka called it “a good barometer of where you should be yearly at minimum.” The Rockets finished with 52 wins, built on Udoka`s gritty, tough, and physical style with lockdown defense. Jalen Green credited Udoka with “bringing the dog out of us.” After a three-game skid in early March, the Rockets won 9 straight and 15 of 17, focusing on their identity for the postseason. They ranked around the middle offensively, finishing 12th in offensive rating, and consistently in the top five defensively. — Michael C. Wright
2. Houston Rockets
| Record | 52-30 |
| Point diff. | +4.5 |
| Off. rating | 114.9 (12th) |
| Def. rating | 110.3 (5th) |
| Net rating | 4.6 (7th) |
| PPG leader | Jalen Green (21.2) |
| NBA title odds | +8000 |
How Will Houston Overcome Playoff Inexperience?
Only two Rockets starters (Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks) have playoff experience. However, their physicality and playing style could compensate. The main question is whether they can consistently generate half-court offense when games slow down and possessions become crucial. Leading the league in offensive rebounding gives them a chance for second-chance points. Jalen Green is their top scorer, but consistent contributions from VanVleet, Brooks, and Alperen Sengun are needed to prevent opponents from focusing solely on Green. — Wright
Best-Case Scenario:
The Rockets overcome half-court scoring issues by dominating the offensive glass and using their speed and depth to outrun opponents, reaching the conference finals. While they may lose their first playoff series against Oklahoma City, they could win the lottery with the Phoenix Suns` pick. — Pelton
Net Points X Factor:
Brooks averages +1.5 net points per game with at least two days off between games, compared to -3.2 in back-to-backs. No back-to-backs in the playoffs should benefit him. — Oliver
3. Los Angeles Lakers
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Los Angeles` Path to the Postseason:
Luka Doncic is now a Laker. Regardless of playoff results, the 2024-25 season is already a success for the franchise. GM Rob Pelinka hired young coach JJ Redick and acquired Doncic in a shocking trade.
Like any Lakers season, there was drama – LeBron James taking time off, a rescinded trade involving rookie Dalton Knecht – but more successes than failures. Austin Reaves emerged as a borderline All-Star, and Dorian Finney-Smith fit in quickly. Knecht and Bronny James also showed promise. LeBron and Doncic displayed chemistry, capable of leading together. — Dave McMenamin
3. Los Angeles Lakers
| Record | 50-32 |
| Point diff. | +1.2 |
| Off. rating | 115.0 (11th) |
| Def. rating | 113.8 (17th) |
| Net rating | 1.2 (14th) |
| PPG leader | Luka Doncic (28.2) |
| NBA title odds | +1400 |
How Will Doncic, James, and Reaves Perform Together?
James, Doncic, and Reaves have only played 21 games together. Coach Redick is relying on them to manage the Lakers` offense in the playoffs, where opponents will target their weaknesses.
Redick dismisses experience as crucial for a championship. “I don`t buy the theory,” he said. “Prepare, control what you can, play hard, execute, and you have a chance to win.” — McMenamin
Key Matchup to Watch in Round 1:
The Lakers opened preseason and regular season against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and now face them in the first round of the playoffs. Since the rescinded trade, L.A.`s size is questioned. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3), L.A. 26th (42.4). The Lakers need wing and guard rebounding, not just Jaxson Hayes. The storyline is rich: Doncic faces his former WCF opponent, and the Wolves seek revenge on the conference finals MVP now in Lakers uniform. — McMenamin
Best-Case Scenario:
Doncic and James find chemistry for a deep playoff run. Opponents continue to struggle against their 3-point defense. They beat Minnesota in Round 1 and upset Houston in Round 2. Doncic`s teammates get hot from 3-point range, leading to their first Finals appearance since 2020. — Pelton
Net Points X Factor:
James and Doncic both add +2.3 offensive net points per 48 minutes to teammates` shooting via passing/spacing, the best combo in the league. — Oliver
4. Denver Nuggets
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Denver`s Path to the Postseason:
After a 37-19 start, the Nuggets made major changes, replacing coach Michael Malone and GM Calvin Booth with three games left in the regular season. Interim coach David Adelman led them to win their final three games, securing the No. 4 seed. Adelman emphasizes player voice, with Nikola Jokic and others being more vocal. Ownership made the changes to end internal conflicts.






