With the 2025 NBA Finals two games in, the series between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder is tied at one win each, and the overall narrative hasn`t strayed far from initial expectations.
For instance, it was anticipated that if the Pacers were to secure a victory on the Thunder`s home court, Indiana would likely need to tap into the same successful formula that fueled their progress through the earlier playoff rounds. Game 1 indeed showed the Thunder a glimpse of the strategy Indiana used to overcome the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks. However, as is often the pattern after a playoff loss, Oklahoma City showcased their superior talent in Game 2, establishing an early advantage and preventing the Pacers from mounting a comeback.
So, while the general flow of the series might seem predictable, the statistics from the initial games have been far from ordinary. From the Pacers` turnovers to the Thunder`s free throws, the first two matchups have produced significant statistical deviations compared to how these teams typically perform. Analyzing these outliers is crucial, as one of the most effective ways to understand a team`s strengths or weaknesses in a specific series is by comparing their performance metrics against their season-long baseline.
Considering this, let`s examine the five most significant statistical anomalies observed in the series so far, based on how each team is playing relative to its own established norms.
Indiana 2-pointers
Throughout the season, the Pacers have averaged 30.0 successful 2-point shots per game, shooting 56.6% from inside the arc. They ranked among the top five in the NBA in both categories during the regular season. Individually, Pascal Siakam was 18th in the league with 6.2 made 2s per contest, highlighting an Indiana offense that relied less on 3-pointers than many other teams in the 2024-25 campaign.
In these Finals, however, the Pacers have significantly changed their approach, making just 22.0 two-pointers per game on 51.8% shooting – both figures representing some of their lowest production rates for 2s this season. Siakam`s average has also dropped to 4.0 per game.
Simultaneously, Indiana is attempting 39.5 three-pointers per game, with over 48% of their shots coming from beyond the arc, compared to their season averages of 35.5 attempts and 40% of total shots. While spending time trailing in both games partly explains this shift, the Pacers have clearly been pushed away from their usual shooting distribution in this series.
Indiana turnovers/opponent steals
Relatedly, Indiana`s reduced field goal makes are also a result of committing an unusually high number of turnovers. Approximately 18% of the Pacers` possessions have ended in a turnover, significantly higher than their season average of 11.9%, according to Basketball-Reference. Their 25 turnovers in Game 1 were the most by a winning team in the Finals since 1977.
Oklahoma City`s performance in generating steals has been particularly noteworthy. Their 14 takeaways in Game 1 were tied for the second-highest number Indiana allowed all season and their most in the playoffs. Across Games 1 and 2, OKC is averaging 12.0 steals per game, considerably more than the 7.3 SPG Indiana typically concedes.
While the Thunder are widely recognized as one of the league`s best teams at forcing turnovers defensively, the Pacers were among the best at minimizing giveaways offensively.
Something had to yield, and currently, that factor is favoring Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City free throws
Despite certain Thunder players having a reputation for frequently getting to the free-throw line, Oklahoma City`s offense didn`t rely heavily on fouls during the regular season, ranking 24th in made free throws per field goal attempt and averaging only 16.7 free throws per game (19th overall).
In the Finals, however, Oklahoma City has been much more active at the line, averaging 25.0 free throws per game. Their ratio of free throws per field goal attempt is 51% higher than their season average.
The Thunder`s 29 made free throws in Game 2 represented their third-highest total in a single game all season and were tied for the fourth most Indiana has allowed in a game. While the Pacers are fouling more than usual, the Thunder have also helped themselves by converting 87.7% of their free throws in the series, with the first two Finals games being two of their five most accurate shooting performances from the line throughout the entire playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alone accounts for 36% of the Thunder`s made free throws as a team, managing to improve upon his league-leading regular-season rate of made free throws per game.
Indiana scoring
Despite demonstrating improved balance this season, the Pacers remain an offensively oriented team. They ranked 9th in offensive efficiency during the regular season (compared to 13th on defense) and 2nd on offense during the playoffs. Their season-long average is 117.2 points per game, but in the Finals so far, this figure has dropped to 109.0. This marks the first instance in the playoffs where the Pacers have been limited to 111 points or fewer in both of the opening two games of a series.
This scoring dip isn`t due to a slower game pace; the average of 99.8 possessions per Finals game is slightly higher than the Pacers` season average of 99.6. Instead, it can be attributed to factors mentioned previously: shifting more shots to 3-pointers from 2-pointers and, particularly, the high volume of turnovers.
Ultimately, the outcome is fewer points scored, especially for key Pacers players. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged a combined 39.9 points per game in the playoffs leading up to the Finals, are scoring just 32.5 PPG together in the series.
Both teams` assists
One early pattern observed in both offenses is a decrease in their assist numbers compared to their typical averages.
Based on their season-long statistics, Indiana and Oklahoma City would collectively be expected to register around 55.5 assists per game, with 29.0 from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder. However, through the first two Finals games, their combined average has fallen to 44.5 APG, with Indiana`s dropping to 25.5 and Oklahoma City`s significantly decreasing to 19.0.
These are notable declines, although they appear to stem from different causes.
For Indiana, their assist rate per made basket has actually slightly increased in the Finals (from 66.9% to 67.3%), but they are simply making significantly fewer total baskets than usual (averaging 38.0 field goals per game versus a typical average of 43.3).
Oklahoma City, conversely, is genuinely distributing the ball less frequently than usual. Their assist rate stands at 47.9% in Games 1 and 2 (including 33.3% in Game 1, their lowest share of the entire season), compared to their season-long average of 59.7%. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander increased his assists from three in Game 1 to eight in Game 2, the Pacers are likely focused on continuing to disrupt the Thunder`s ball movement going forward.
